generalspeaking

Settling Accounts

"The previous leadership of the Interior Ministry and the Berkut (riot police) did everything possible to ensure that any investigations would be impossible. Clothes were burned, weapons discarded and documents destroyed."
Ukraine Interior Minister Arsen Avakov

"What was planned under the guise of an anti-terrorist operation, and which was in fact an operation of mass killing of people, took place under the immediate and direct leadership of former president Yanukovych."
Ukrainian Security Service chief Valentyn Nalyvaichenko

While ousted Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych wrings his hands in anguish over his version of Vladimir Putin's betrayal of the trust that Mr. Yanukovych had placed in him, characterizing the annexation of Crimea as a "tragedy, a major tragedy", insisting that he plans to beseech the Russian president to reverse his orders and remove his troops from Crimea at his earnest bequest, he is himself being accused of ordering the killing of Ukrainian citizen-protesters.

This new accusation levelled by the interim authorities in Kyiv is being posed perhaps as a grand new discovery, but ask those who were in the Maidan, and the medical personnel who were feverishly attempting to save lives, and the presumption is not new, it was always held to be the case. Perhaps it's just that in the general aura of affliction and incapacity to physically resist the Russians, the temporary authority, flailing about to retrieve a sense of authority, will grasp at anything.

But the new leadership after examining the events representing months of antigovernment protests, feels justified in releasing its 'preliminary findings'. That the disgraced president ordered snipers to fire on protesters, and were aided in their task by Russian security agents called in by Mr. Yanukovych. No evidence was provided directly linking him to the bloodbath, but the sentiments most certainly were all his; a desperate play for survival.

Ukraine has dispatched sixteen of its senior officers to Bulgaria to take part in a NATO military exercise, taking place a few hundred kilometres from Crimea. Involved in the computer-simulated drills are over 700 troops from thirteen NATO members and partner nations. After all, if Russia could assembly 40,000 troops and armoured vehicles, planes and helicopters and artillery beside the Ukrainian border, what's to stop NATO from gathering a few resources beside the area newly claimed by Russia?

A new American bill has been signed into law to provide $1-billion in U.S. loan guarantees to Ukraine. Allied legislation sets out punishing actions to be undertaken against Russia in reflection of its annexation of Crimea. That will most certainly help Ukraine in its future relations with Russia which claims that it owes Gazprom $2.2-billion for gas. And with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev musing over whether Russia should press Ukraine for billions more it 'owes', Ukraine's finances look rather wan.

Another headache represented by its debt, and then news that Ukraine can anticipate a punishing new 70% increase for its gas supplies for the future. Russia has decided on the other hand that it no longer owes Ukraine billions for lease of the Black Sea ports for its fleet, since it now owns those ports, their infrastructure and all the military equipment, including navy vessels now bearing Russian flags. Has it occurred to Ukraine to invoice Russia for the privilege of running its gas supply pipeline through the country?

And when Ukraine has done that, another billing notice could be diplomatically channelled through to the Kremlin invoicing it for all of Ukraine's summarily occupied military posts, and all allied equipment, including said vessels, armoured cars, whatever Russia has taken possession of. After all, this is a civilized world, is it not, and any self-respecting, law-abiding state must recognize its obligation to uphold international laws protecting the possessions of sovereign entities...

Still, the Ukrainian authorities are really ticked off by Russia sending massive amounts of explosive devices, arms and crowd control devices by plane to Kyiv "to organize executions and the extermination of our protesters", which is not at all how a collegial neighbourly state should behave. Mr. Avakov spoke as well of evidence in hand that links former interior minister Vitali Zakharchenko in charge of police during the protests, to someone charged with coordinating hired thugs to beat and intimidate opposition activists.

So, all things considered, although Russia, which turned out after all not to be the kindly neighbour Ukraine always thought of it as being, it has no right to insist on payment of an amount Ukraine was expected to pay to Russia representing export duties. Since the duties, scrapped in exchange for a lease extension for the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea are no longer part of an exchange agreement in reflection of Russia owning the Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine can expect to be pressed for the duties.

At which time they must invoke their right for compensation of looted properties. And in that instance, Russia must of necessity end up owing Ukraine a huge whack of compensation, enough to enable Ukraine to refurbish its military equipment, and launch a military bid to contest Russian ownership of Crimea. Solutions abound.

Labels: Conflict, Crimea, Finances, Russian, Ukraine

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, April 05, 2014