Whose National Interests?
"A big country like Russia cannot be split from the rest of the world -- it is not the 19th Century."
"We will be barefoot and the inflation rate out of control."
Evgeny Gontmacher, economist
"Putin has to show that he is a strong leader who stands up for the national interests. On the other hand, he needs to send a message to the West that he is ready for a dialogue, to make it clear that he won't escalate the situation, that there is no need to impose sanctions."
Aleksei Makarkin, analyst Center for Political Technologies, Moscow
"It is important that this ceasefire open the way to a dialogue between all of the parties to the combat, so as to find solutions that will be acceptable to all sides."
"What is needed is for all military operations to stop."
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Not a very difficult code to interpret. "Military operations" after all, refer singly to government actions. The violent provocations and atrocities committed by the Ukrainian pro-Russian militants on the other hand, are not "military operations", because they do not represent a state operation other than in their minds as members of the "People's Republik of Donetsk". From the Kremlin's point of view it is Kyiv that is responsible for the upheaval in Ukraine.
Kyiv that is responsible for the annexation of Crimea. For Kyiv's decision making, from the interim government to the present one, led to Moscow having no choice whatever but to respond through a buildup of Russian troops and armaments on the border between the two countries, the covert dispatch of Russian military operatives to eastern Ukraine to foment unrest and backlash, and to guide their Russian-Ukrainian civilian recruits into action.
It may be possible that Russian arrogance, convinced of their right to display their might to oppress and destabilize an ungrateful neighbour, felt that there would be no reaction on the part of the West and NATO to their outright bullying interference. The blow of diplomatic and economic sanctions does have a deep bite, giving the inconvenience of painful consequences to injudicial decision- making.
Presenting Russia with the bitter pill of having to balance its actions and policies toward Ukraine. Of course brute force has already cost Ukraine dearly, a lesson in humility that its new President, Petro Poroshenko resents and finds quite unacceptable. He has ample support within the international community and NATO for all the good that has done to date. Vowing he will not rest until Crimea is restored to Ukraine, he must administer a crippled economy and a bruised populace.
And President Putin, treading a narrow corridor must preserve as much as possible Russian influence over Ukraine's future, one that lies, as far as the Kremlin is concerned, with championing the separatist goal for autonomy, if not consolidation within Russia itself. Moscow would no doubt prefer maintaining the southeast as a separate entity; far less pain is involved in condemnation from NATO and the expenses involved in shoring up the southeast's economic straits.
All of this must be accomplished at a perceived arm's length; a minimum of noticeable involvement, that the initiative be seen to come directly and solely from the separatist camp, Russia merely an interested bystander, as it were. Anything perceived as Moscow mounting any military role in the situation would surely provoke even harsher Western sanctions. Washington did warn that tougher sanctions were under advisement with NATO's most recent revelations of Moscow supplying covert military aid; tanks and artillery, to the rebels.
"Mr. Putin says that the only viable solution will be through dialogue", said Dmitri Peskov speaking for President Putin; no aid whatever has been given of a military nature to the insurgents. Mr. Putin's home base audience is enthusiastic for Moscow to demonstrate a firm hand in the dispute with Ukraine. And although much of Europe would far prefer continuing business as usual with Moscow, and some American, British and French corporations continue their business relations there as usual, investment in Russia has stalled and its institutions blacklisted.
President Putin placed his military on alert, announcing snap exercises with about 65,000 soldiers after shells from Ukraine blasted into a Russian border post on Saturday. At the same time, he blandly endorsed the peace plan while calling on both sides to halt the conflict. Taking pains nonetheless to criticize ongoing Ukrainian military operations taking place despite the unilateral cease-fire placed in effect on Friday by Kyiv, and rejected by the secessionists.
Labels: Conflict, Russia, Secession, Ukraine
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, June 24, 2014
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