Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Ukraine, Divided

"People queued for days to get money from the rebels and some fought each other. They had to fire shots into the air to make everyone leave once the cash ran out."
Lidiya, 61, Donetsk, Ukraine

"The conflict has wiped off relatively comfortable living standards achieved in the last two decades."
"[A persistent stalemate may lead to mass migration in the face of a] slow and painful recovery."
Lilit Gevorgyan, senior analyst, IHS Global Insight Inc.

"This has drastically worsened the plight of people living there [Donetsk and Luhansk 'republics'], seriously affecting access to basic services and food."
United Nations report

"[Aid is] distributed in the centre and people living on the outskirts just don't get to it in time because city transport isn't working."
"We brought 130 packages of food to Debaltseve and a long line appeared near our bus in minutes. Those people were really hungry."
Dmitry Filimonov, Debaltseve
www.kyivpost.com
World Health Organization donates medicines, medical instruments to Donetsk region

Life is no longer what it once was, within Ukraine's breakaway republics. Between the ceasefires, embargoes and broken supply lines, a meagre economy has arisen, afflicting people with shortages in all basic commodities, let alone inflicting upon them the necessity to take extraordinary measure to do their banking, and to receive government benefits and services, cut off since December in rebel territory.
A Damaged Food Store In Donetsk
A woman cleans shattered glass after a shop was damaged during recent shelling between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian government forces in Donetsk. The devastation is on full display in Donetsk, the combat zone’s biggest city, where billboards have vanished from streets, replaced by banners for conscription to the rebel forces that wield control. Photographer: Petr David Josek/AP Photos

The pro-Russian insurgency that has riven Ukraine has left people living in the self-proclaimed republics in dire economic straits. While the antagonists face one another in their geopolitical conflict, the people living in the area find it a struggle to accomplish once-mundane tasks taken for granted. Lidiya, for example, pays a local middleman to fetch her pension across the front line from a bank in government-controlled Kharkiv. She now grows food in her garden in Petrovskoe, 63 kilometres from Ukrainian territory.

Life has become a subsistence trial for most of the population. Who have seen the existential need to resort to a subsistence economy of trade, barter and the hiring of middlemen capable of passing through lines separating rebel territory and Ukrainian territory. The underground economy that now prevails of necessity has arisen in the shadow of ceasefires and conflict.

Normality of civil life has been elusive. Streets are littered with garbage, cash machines no longer are filled. So Soviet-era survival techniques are being tackled as a means to overcome the need to somehow attain cash, medicines and necessities of life, couriered from government-held territories to pass through rebel lines. Artillery has been mostly silenced by the February truce, but Ukrainians face a struggle to access food staples.

The government in Kyiv requires people now to carry with them travel passes to identify separatists and keep them at arm's length, leaving many citizens effectively stranded, deepening an already existing humanitarian crisis. Social Minister Pavlo Rozenko stated it takes a month to obtain papers enabling entry to government-controlled territory. Without a pass options are outlined on flyers at bus stops and through social networks.

In Donetsk, businessmen use contacts at border checkpoints to shuttle their clients in minibuses 65 kilometres to Konstantynivka, Ukrainian territory where cash can be withdrawn and local shops visited for items from antibiotics to baby food. The markets and stores open in Donetsk and cities like Debaltseve are known for their shortages. Humanitarian aid helps but it is insufficient; Dmitry Filmonov collected $2000-worth of donations from Moscow and Kyiv, gone in an instant.

Pension tours taking the elderly to Ukrainian banks to receive their monthly payment of about $65 has the service charging $13 for transport. Before the fighting, the trip from Petrovskoe to Ukrainian territory took four hours; now it is a 36 hour drive. "I have to pay penalties for crossing the border illegally", said Oleh. "We're looking now for the best routes."

"Once every two weeks, Mariupol steel workers get paid at the same time as buses arrive from Donetsk carrying people to take out cash. You see lines of 50 to 100 people at ATMs and there can be scuffles", said Eduard Horlov. People have resigned themselves to the miserable inconveniences that have interrupted their lives.

"It costs a lot for me, of course", Petrovna from Petrovskoe agreed. She paid 1,000 hryvnya ($42) to arrange for her pension to be re-registered in another town. "But I can't do it myself. It's good there are people who're dealing with this", she sighed.

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Friday, March 27, 2015

Perspective Is Everything

"This is the biggest issue facing the world today in my view, I think in the view of our prime minister, and our team."
"Yes, there is terrorism. Vladimir Putin is behaving like a terrorist."
"But the buck stops in Ukraine; there is absolutely no scenario going into the future that leads to peace and security for this world, that leads to prosperity in Europe globally that does not include a full international effort to give Ukraine the tools it needs to drive Russian forces from their borders and to secure its borders for good."
Canadian Immigration Minister Chris Alexander
Immigration Minister Chris Alexander's February speech sparked a diplomatic tiff with the Russian embassy.
CP/Adrian Wyld, AP/Pavel Golovkin    Immigration Minister Chris Alexander's February speech sparked a diplomatic tiff with the Russian embassy.

Well, the speech was, after all, geared to his audience, of Ukrainian Canadians. Yes, there is immediate urgency in the volatile and deadly events unfolding in the Middle East, where the lives of hundreds of thousands of people have been lost in Syria, in Iraq, in the iniquitous blood-letting atrocity-laden murder-sprees of both the Syrian Baathist regime and Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. But there is also Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and its support of Syria and of Iran.

Mr. Alexander did give the conflicts in Syria and Iraq their due, but his ire on this occasion, for this special audience, was reserved for Russia, and its President; Vladimir Putin, in particular. His words did not go unnoticed, all the more so since a video of his speech surfaced on the Internet and the Russian Embassy in Ottawa decided to respond. The YouTube video got an answer on Twitter: "Sounds like Orwellian 'five minutes of hate'. Hardly the artwork of diplomacy", tweeted the Russian embassy. Touche...!

And it isn't only Canada versus Russia that has surface of late. Britain, with its hate-on for Russian skulduggery in assassinations on British soil,  has London and Moscow cat-calling one another, and this time Moscow has a point; focusing on Argentina's claim to the Malvinas, which colonial Britain that taken as its own Falklands, installing Britons to make it their home, and fighting wars with Argentina over its possession; refusing to take part in a diplomatic mission to agree to a resolution to the impasse.

Britain has decided to beef up its military presence in the Falklands much to Argentina's alarm and discomfort. In response to Russia's cozying up to Argentina, following the Iranian lead, one supposes. Both have been ostracized of late; Iran for its nuclear ambitions, Russia for its hegemonic aggression of Ukraine, and the sanctions that have been imposed on each have gone far in biting their economies, so they're looking where they can for 'economies' that will aid them in accommodating themselves to their new realities.

A Rapier missile speeds towards its target
A Rapier missile, similar to that deployed on the Falklands Photo: PO[Phot]Lewis.S.J./Crown Copyright

Said David Cameron: "The assurance that I can give the Falkland Islands is that we will always be there for them, we will always defend them." They are all of British heritage, after all, so far from home, rubbing cheeks with Argentina geographically, since logically it should be an Argentinian possession, as the country claims. Since they're all British-speakers, and they voted overwhelmingly in a referendum to remain British, seeking Britain's aid in fending off Argentinian overtures, there's a certain resemblance there to Moscow claiming it cannot ignore the pleas of Russian speakers in Ukraine.

Britain condemns the Crimean annexation, and sneeringly speaks of the referendum that took place there giving moral authorization, as Moscow claims, for that annexation, as a "fig leaf" for Putin's "land grab". The Russian embassy in Britain had this to say: "In its rhetoric Foreign Office applies one logic to the referendum in the Maldives/Falklands, and a different one to the case of Crimea". And truth to tell, they've got a case in point there.


An internationally beleaguered Russia is pushing back.  For weeks pro-Kremlin news sources and Russian members of the Duma have been denouncing as pure hypocrisy Britain's "colonial occupation" of the Islands, the "Crimea of the Atlantic", while Alexei Pushkov, head of the committee of international affairs in the Duma has written on Twitter: "Information for London: Crimea has immeasurably more reason to be a part of Russia than the Falkland Islands to be part of the U.K."

Ouch! But ain't it the unvarnished truth?!

"The Malvinas has always belonged to Argentina, the same way that Crimea also belonged to the Soviet Union until it was given to Ukraine."
Argentine President Cristina de Kirchner

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Thursday, March 19, 2015

Exiled Crimeans

"Everywhere in the district where we lived, they stuck up leaflets with his face, calling him a bloodthirsty traitor and a fascist, and all kinds of other things."
Lyudmila Schekun

"They thought we wanted to derail their referendum. They thought we were some kind of terrorist group or something."
"They need our moral support [Ukrainians still living in Crimea]. They need to hear us say 'We haven't betrayed you, we haven't abandoned you'."
Andrei Schekun, former Crimea resident
Crimea exiles fight to keep Ukraine unity message alive
Ethnic Ukrainians comprise one-quarter of Crimea's population, according to the most recent census back in 2001. The Ukrainians who left Crimea, estimated to be about 20,000 people, to migrate to the mainland after Russia's annexation of the peninsula, speak heavily of their loss of homeland. Now at a distance from Crimea they feel guilt at having abandoned those Ukrainians who are left. And express disappointment with the Kyiv government's resignation over its loss of Crimea.

"People are afraid to express their opinion", said Valeriya Lutkovskaya, speaking at a United Nations conference in Geneva as the human rights envoy for Ukraine's parliament, describing Crimea as a "peninsula of terror". "They feel fear for their life and future, fear to espouse their faith and speak in their native language."

"Unfortunately", stated Eskender Bariyev, a Mejlis member, a self-governing body of Crimean Tatars, "there is at the moment no single government executive body that deals with Crimean matters". In view of this lack of government initiative, Andrei Schekun feels that activists like him have an obligation to continue to encourage hope among the Ukrainians still living in Crimea.

He describes his experience when he was taken into custody of the police comprised of a self-described militia as he awaited delivery of Ukrainian flags and symbols in the Crimean capital of Simferopol at the train station. That was a year ago. A week before the planned referendum for secession from Ukraine, to rush Crimea into the waiting arms of Moscow. He was locked into a dark room.

And for the eleven days that followed he was beaten, shocked with electrodes and scalded with hot metallic plates. His campaign to persuade his fellow Crimeans to reject absorption by Russia marked him as a criminal. Now, far from Crimea, living in Shchaslyve, Ukraine outside Kyiv with his wife and their three sons, he continues his crusade for Ukrainian unity.

At the time of the referendum, Russian state television fed a steady diet of unrest occurring against then-Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, and the danger expressed in Ukrainian nationalists' intentions of oppressing ethnic Russians in Crimea. The urgent dangers presented to the safety and security of Russian speakers. Fascist, violent Ukrainians were preparing to march to Crimea and violently rescind any civil rights left to ethnic Russians.

It was at that point in history that Andrei Schekun's energies in encouraging support for the anti-government protests that led to Mr. Yanukovych fleeing, made him a suspect, and flyers were found in the courtyard outside his home in the town of Bakhchysarai, claiming him to be a traitor to Crimea.

The Tatar minority of Crimea's leadership resisted Russian annexation. It has since been subjected to intimidation ranging from petty harassment by officials, to violence expressed in beatings, kidnappings and outright murder. Square all of this against the recent polls that resulted in a majority approval expressed by Crimeans in their 'Russian' status.

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Sunday, March 15, 2015

And ... Nothing But The Truth

"We never thought about severing Crimea from Ukraine until the moment that these events began, the government overthrow".
"We were ready to do this [place Russia's nuclear weapons in combat readiness]."
"[Crimea] is our historical territory. Russian people live there. They were in danger. We cannot abandon them."
"For us it became clear and we received information that there were plans not only for his capture [Yanukovych], but, preferably for those who carried out the coup, also for his physical elimination."
"Heavy machine guns [were placed in Donetsk] so as not to waste time talking".
Russian President Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with the government - 4 February 2015 President Putin says he only acted in Crimea after the government in Kiev was overthrown

And of course the military men who looked suspiciously like Russian soldiers, called the "green men", without identifying insignia were volunteers, anxious to help support the campaign to save Russian-speaking (ethnic Russian) Ukrainians from the murderous intention of the government in Kyiv. Moscow's puppet Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych's life was in recognizable danger, and Russia owed it to a man loyal to them, to prevent his murder.

And the Kremlin recognized their honour was at stake, to support the people living in Crimea from the vengeance that the Ukrainian military would extract from them for their repudiation of the Kyiv regime. Russia had little option but to annex Crimea not only because of its heritage, inextricably linked with Russia, but to protect the people living there. Who, in the majority, when polled a year after annexation, state their preference to be under Russia's wing, not that of Ukraine. Mr. Putin said so.

Unstoppable events carried Russia forward, until it had little option but to deploy troops finally across the border on the peninsula to "stand behind Crimea's self-defence forces". Russia had an obligation that it simply could not shunt aside and still maintain its honour. And simply because the formal annexation of Crimea led to the Russian-speaking 'protesters' occupying buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv demanding independence coincided, to blame Russia for interference is misleading.

It was the separatists themselves, fed up with their oppression from Kyiv which denied them language rights and treated them unequally so that people felt threatened, that led them to declare independence from Ukraine. The outcome of the referendums gave them the authority to proceed, after all, to declare independence from Ukraine. And Ukraine has no one but itself and its corrosive policies to blame.

The authoritative documentary that was filmed and shown on state-run channel Rossiya-1 was produced by Andrei Kondrashov, a journalist whose own code of honour drew him to interview Mr. Putin and place the historic evisceration of Ukraine by Moscow in its proper perspective. Ukraine entirely blameworthy, a fascist state, with noble Russia rushing to the aid of the downtrodden who happen to speak Russian.

Crimea map

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Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Rebuilding What They've Destroyed

"Every house has been, if not destroyed, then damaged. Ninety-nine percent of the glazing has been shattered."
"I can't send a group of glass workers to a small private house when there's a big apartment block nearby."
"And you can turn on the heating there and move 100 to 300 people there."
Alexander Afendikov, Moscow-backed Cossack separatist; Debaltseve 'mayor'
A damaged Ukrainian army tank is left abandoned in a wrecked petrol station outside Debaltseve 
A damaged Ukrainian army tank is left abandoned in a wrecked petrol station outside Debaltseve 

Debaltseve is a ruined city, destroyed by heavy artillery over a four-week period that began in mid-January. Hundreds of civilians living in Debaltseve were killed, as were almost two hundred Ukrainian troops defending the city from the separatist onslaught. Blocks of apartment buildings stand damaged under the sun glaring through their upper floors, unroofed. It is a morose city now, under occupation.

At a grocery store rebels distribute bread: one loaf per person. Most of the people lining up for free bread are old and frail and unwashed. In a destroyed city there are few civil amenities that people living there once took for granted. A Grad rocket rests within a refrigerator car at the railway station. Power lines hang limply, another vestige of civil life destroyed and requiring a prodigious repair effort.

In the town square a pitched tent is where Mr. Afendikov with his black Cossack hat gives orders to his subordinates dispatched to aid the local residents with blankets and water. They are working hard, says Mr. Afendikov, to restore life to the city, to enable its residents to return, to repair what they can as soon as they can.

A Grad rocket is lodged in the wall of a building in the jail of Chornukhyne, east of Debaltseve. Only four of over 300 inmates are left in the jail after it was evacuated following shelling during the battle for Debaltseve
A Grad rocket is lodged in the wall of a building in the jail of Chornukhyne, east of Debaltseve. Only four of over 300 inmates are left in the jail after it was evacuated following shelling during the battle for Debaltseve

The Russians, as helpful to the Ukrainian insurgents in destroying the town and truncating Ukraine into stark divisions of Kyiv-commanding Ukraine and Novorosskiya are continuing their helpfulness; from violent destruction to humanitarian assistance. Russian convoys and "various private organizations" from Russia are arriving with construction materials to help rebuild the town.

Hospitals, schools and large apartment blocks are given priority. The homes where most Debaltseve residents once lived their ordinary, peaceful lives are not scheduled to be a focus of repair any time soon. One of the city's two major hospitals escaped a direct artillery hit, although all the windows were shattered by shells that landed close by. Workers were installing new glazing, though the corridors are freezing and deserted.

The hospital is bereft of running water or central heating, but it is now reopened, accommodating a handful of patients, mostly elderly people who are now suffering from the bronchitis symptoms that assailed them when they sought out damp basements for shelter from the ongoing artillery attacks that destroyed their city. It is, in fact, mostly the elderly who remain in the town.

The shelling which destroyed this house actually intensified in the days after a ceasefire deal was signed in Minsk on February 12
The shelling which destroyed this house actually intensified in the days after a ceasefire deal was signed in Minsk on February 12

The shelling was so intense that embattled and fearful locals dangerously under siege were unable to conduct proper burials for their dead, according to Nadezhda Ignatenko, 65, whose street abuts the cemetery: "There are no coffins here, nothing. People would be wrapped in a piece of cloth and buried in the yard -- like dogs", she said.

But Debaltseve is now in the hands of the Ukrainian Russian-speakers faithful to Moscow and to Vladimir Putin, their mentoring guide. A direct link between Donetsk and Luhansk, it is the prize that the insurgents ignored the cease-fire to achieve. Glorious victory is now theirs. Their as well the task of rebuilding what they have destroyed.

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Friday, February 27, 2015

The Plot, The Reality

"These guys were fighting here. I don't know what for. They were following the orders of their president, and they respected that order."
"We all are military men here and we have to respect our enemy."
Mikhail Tolstykh, Russian-ethnic military commander, Donetsk, Ukraine

"I recognized them from their clothing. They were my friends."
Sasha, Ukrainian soldier, 90th brigade
Clearing rubble at Donetsk airport Vladimir Kononov, defence minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic looks on as Ukrainian prisoners of war form a line to clear rubble in the destroyed building of the airport outside Donetsk, Ukraine, Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2015. (AP / Vadim Ghirda)

Sasha is among those Ukrainian military prisoners of war who have been given the task, or who have volunteered for the grimly necessary task of digging beneath the ruins of the destroyed airport building outside Donetsk, to uncover and recover the frozen remains of Ukrainian soldiers who died in the collapse of the building under relentless shelling from the militias representing the Donetsk People's Republic.

A Ukrainian official had notice that seven Ukrainian soldiers have thus far been retrieved. According to representatives of the secessionists many more soldiers remain buried under the collapsed building. Sasha witnessed two of his friends being drawn out of the debris from among the twisted steel beams and smashed cement walls being sawed into pieces and towed away even as the emerging bodies were being carried off, contorted not in rigor mortis only but by the cold when life left their bodies.

Neither Kyiv nor the Donetsk People's Republic has revealed the number of captives each hold. Journalists saw roughly twenty-five government prisoners working at the airport to release the bodies of their dead compatriots. Last weekend 52 rebels held by the government in Kyiv were returned to the rebels in exchange for 139 captured Ukrainian soldiers.

All this, amid the emerging news that a Russian Oligarch who has been known to fund the rebels, many of whom were former employees of his before becoming movers-and-shakers in the Donetsk People's Republic, had furnished a report given to the Kremlin with the advice that it should annex Crimea along with a large part of southeastern Ukraine, long before the fall of the government of president Viktor Yanukovych.

The report in the form of a memorandum predicted the overthrow of the Russian-backed government, recommending Russia make the effort to take both Crimea and eastern Ukraine. A detailed strategy is carefully laid out in the memo, its details tracing in advance the actual steps that were taken with the fall of the Russian-backed government in Ukraine. Anticipating that Ukraine would break into an EU-aligned west and a Russian-leaning east, Russia it held, should take the initiative.

"The dominant regions for the application of force should be Crimea and the Kharkiv region", stated the memo. The Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, according to Novaya Gazeta which had revealed the contents of the memo, has denied being behind any of these machinations. Russia, according to the memo, should take advantage of the "centrifugal forces" of social unrest and polarized politics to merge the east with the rest of Russia since the country would be torn apart in any event.

And in the event, it was. Thanks largely to Russian direct malicious intervention.

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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

All-Out War ... Opening Another Front

"Ukraine has not made prepayment for gas on time."
"[Given the time required for Kyiv to make payment it] will result in a total end to supplies of Russian gas to Ukraine in just two days, which poses serious risks for gas transit to Europe."
Aleksei Miller, head, Gazprom, Moscow

"The four of us [Britain, France, Ukraine, Russia; ceasefire negotiators] are calling for strict implementation of all the provisions in the Minsk agreements, starting with a total ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of heavy weapons."
Laurent Fabius, French foreign minister
Ukrainian soldiers unload bodies of Ukrainian soldiers killed in Debaltsevo on February 24, 2015 at a checkpoint near Gorlivka. (ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP/Getty Images)

"Russia is engaged in a rather remarkable period of the most overt and extensive propaganda exercise that I've seen since the very height of the Cold War."
"And they have been persisting in their misrepresentations -- lies -- whatever you want to call them about their activities there to my face, to the face of others on many different occasions."
John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State

Europe, however, should be accustomed to it. It's certainly not the first time a European winter has been disturbed by Russia's squabbles with Ukraine over gas pipeline transmission. Ukraine has even been accused in the past of siphoning off gas for its own use that was meant for Europe. And Moscow has cut gas shipments in the past, throwing its weight around, short-changing Ukraine and the European Union countries in bullying braggadocio.

Ukraine is to be made abysmally miserable by all and any means possible for its flagrant disregard of Russia's wishes. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is not to regard himself as an equal of President Vladimir Putin, not in executive governance, not in military matters, not in the oblivious belief in international respect of sovereignty issues, not in matters of trade, and certainly not in the game of one-upsmanship. The vulpine Putin reigns supreme.

Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, looking on in horrified trepidation for their own sovereign integrity and future with Russia, take the example being made of Ukraine seriously indeed. Leading Lithuania to restore compulsory military service for young men beginning September. The military plans to enlist three thousand men aged 19 to 27 for nine months of service to increase its troop strength over a five-year period. Before joining NATO it had 39,000 troops to its current 15,000.

Ukraine has protested it has paid for all the gas it requested for this year, along with an additional 287 million cubic metres not yet having been ordered. Accusing Russia of violating an agreement under which Ukraine paid $3.1-billion in past gas bills leading Gazprom to resume supplies on a prepaid basis. That was Ukraine's reasonable understanding of the agreement signed in October. Ukraine expected it would be fully supplied through the winter.

Expectations don't always match reality, and the reality of the situation is that Russia has delivered gas to the regions in eastern Ukraine now under rebel control. And it is counting those deliveries toward the total that Kyiv purchased in advance. Moreover, Gazprom stated it plans to supply natural gas directly to the Donetsk region and Luhansk since the Ukrainian government had shut off supplies.

Who ever heard of a country charitably supplying energy to its territorial violators?

Ukraine, just as well, had already taken steps to reduce its Russian gas dependence. Signing a deal with Slovakia for gas already bought in Europe through a reverse piping of gas to Ukraine. And Ukraine has also bought gas from Norway as an alternative source. Europe as well has reduced its dependence on Russian gas through other suppliers, building up reserves in anticipation of just such contingencies.

As for the battlefield of violent conflict; Ukrainian military spokesman Lt. Col. Anatoliy Stelmakh stated that the rebels had shelled the town of Popasna seven times, launching one barrage on the village of Luhanske, and had also attempted to storm Ukrainian positions near the southern village of Shrokyne, close by the strategic Azov Sea port of Mariupol. The separatists claim they have moved some heavy weapons back from the front line. Who're you going to believe?

Pro-Russian separatists drive tank on road from Donetsk to Novoazovsk, Eastern Ukraine on Tuesday.



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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Nostalgia Lives

"They are Ukrainian citizens, [Kharkiv peace march bombers] who underwent instruction and received weapons in the Russian Federation, in Belgorod."
Markian Lubkivskyi, aide, Ukrainian security agency, SBU

"The plan was signed last night. ... Starting from today there are two weeks to withdraw heavy weapons."
Eduard Basurin, deputy defence minister, Donetsk People's Republic
Ukrainian soldiers near Artemivsk, 23 February 2015 Both sides have pledged to start withdrawing heavy weapons

Vladimir Putin's mission is coming close to accomplishment. At least one part of his mission. To prevent Ukraine from signing that Association Agreement with the European Union. His plan for Ukraine is to have it join the Eurasian Economic Union. An economic union primarily and certainly initially, but meant to morph eventually into the political and security organization that will bear quite a resemblance to a previous one, called the USSR.

Nor would he wish Ukraine to come anywhere near joining NATO. Once before NATO refused Ukraine's expression of interest in joining it. And nor are the major powers invested in NATO too terribly keen on Ukraine's expressed interest. Given Moscow's equally expressed interest that Ukraine not become part of NATO. Had it been heretofore, imagine the consequences of the stealth Russian military incursions into Ukraine, let alone Mr. Putin's casual annexation of Crimea.

So the standoff between Russia and NATO, Russia and the EU (more a caricature of European queasiness in economic uncertainty) will continue yet awhile, while the Baltic nations fidget with fear over possible implications for them in Mr. Putin's clear expansionist ambitions. Ukraine has remained resistant to Moscow's plan that the Donbas now partially controlled by the rebels (Putin's proxies) have a veto on Ukrainian foreign policy.

Russia and its client secessionists have only partially succeeded thus far in their greater ambition in pursuit of which Ukraine has come close to being a basket case of nerves and futile rage over their misfortune in a brutal neighbourhood. Will there ultimately be war, or not? Ukraine is no match for the Russian military; the sneak preview has been instructive and demeaning to Ukraine, leaving it ragingly demoralized.

So far the rebels have attained less than half of the Donbas. Before the new ceasefire the rebels made it clear their long-range plan included the whole of the Donbas. The Mariupol land bridge to Crimea is vital to that plan. The Ukrainians have succeeded in cutting off the water supply and land transport to Crimea, and that would collapse as a lever in hopes of restoring the Crimea to its rightful owner, if Mariupol fell.

The rebels have now accused the Ukrainian army of shelling Donetsk. And the Ukrainian military has stated that separatists attacked government forces in Shirokino, east of Mariupol, and in Peski, outside Donetsk. According to Ukrainian commanders, a buildup of separatist forces near Mariupol has become a reality. They accuse Russia of repeated aerial reconnaissance missions, raising fears of an attack impending to seize the port city.

An attack on Mariupol, should Shirokino fall, would present as an operation in a large scale, taking weeks to prepare. Under the February 12 Minsk agreement, both sides have two weeks to withdraw artillery and tanks out of striking distance, and both agreed at the weekend to begin withdrawing heavy weapons shortly. An initial prisoner exchange has taken place. On the other hand, since both sides claim that firing is continuing, the withdrawal process will be suspended.

Not to worry, however; although Mr. Putin sneers at Ukraine's contention that it must have the return to its possession of the Crimean Peninsula, recommending that Ukraine be more concerned about its fragile economic position, he also states with confidence that there will not be a larger, extended war. "I think that such an apocalyptic scenario is unlikely and I hope this will never happen," he said.

If the Minsk agreement was implemented, eastern Ukraine would "gradually stabilise".

Map showing the battle lines in eastern Ukraine

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Monday, February 23, 2015

Memorial Sunday in Ukraine

"Today is memorial Sunday, but on this day terrorist scum revealed its predatory nature."
"This is a brazen attempt to expand the territory of terrorism."
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko

"We don’t have a ceasefire, because a ceasefire means that no one shoots."
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian prime minister

"They [Detained suspects in Kharkiv bombing] are Ukrainian citizens who underwent instruction and received weapons in the Russian Federation, in Belgorod [a city across the nearby Russian border from Kharkiv]."
Markian Lubkivskyi, aide, Ukraine SBU security service
Petr David Josek / Associated Press
Petr David Josek / Associated Press  Ukrainian government troops sit in the back of pick-up trucks as they pass a checkpoint near the town of Mariupol, Ukraine last week.

The residents of Mariupol know that the nightmare has not passed them by. A series of booms inform the port town residents that the conflict is continuing and they will suffer the same burden that citizens of Debaltseve experienced, those that hadn't fled the onslaught, living a miserable time of uncertainty, fear and risk of injury and loss of life. "It's very loud, we can hear it perfectly, and every time we hear it we remember what happened here", said Natasha Gugliya.


In Shryokyne, a coastal village of cottages and holiday resorts ten kilometres from Mariupol, one of the nastiest confrontations since the fall of Debaltseve is ongoing. Ample reason to anticipate that the strategically and economically valuable city of Mariupol is next on the agenda for an offensive by the Russian-incited-and-backed rebel forces. Ukrainian authorities warned of a fresh buildup of separatist forces there.


According to Col. Andriy Lysenko, speaking for the Ukrainian military, 20 tanks, ten mobile rocket systems and about fifteen trucks had crossed the Russian border into Novoazovsky, on Friday, the main rebel-held town in the area, 40 kilometres east of Mariupol. The town was delivered to the rebels in September through an offensive NATO believes spearheaded by regular Russian forces. The ambition to "liberate" Mariupol is no secret.

"There is a buildup, but I am confident we have sufficient forces to defend the city. If the entire Russian army shows up, that is another question", he commented.


Separatists forces are known to have moved into the area close to the port city of Mariupol, fuelling fears that it could come under attack. Seizure of the city by the rebels would guarantee a direct land route between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, annexed after the fall of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Moscow's chosen candidate to lead Ukraine closer to Russia's interests. Many Crimeans justify their new allegiance, feeling his overthrow represented a coup.

Ukrainian forces initiated an offensive to move the front lines from Mariupol before the Minsk peace talks last weekend. The deputy commander of Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol, Col. Viktor Shidlyukh, stated that the rebels had made use of mortars, tanks and heavy firearms attempting to dislodge the Ukrainians. Russian aircraft have flown reconnaissance flights along the coastal strip between Novoazovsk and Shryokyne.

Rumours of Russian warships and a heavy rocket system buildup on the separatist side of the lines were dismissed by Col. Shidlyukh as "enemy attempts to spread panic". Should a concerted attempt be made now to take Mariupol the waning hopes of reviving the compromised peace agreement would be effectively buried. Rebel leaders had stated they saw Debaltseve as an 'exception' to the ceasefire.

For Vladimir Putin's long-range plans, however, everything is an exception, and nothing can be guaranteed to be honoured as stated in his sanctimonious statements on the need for the conflict to be put to an end. Unspoken is the conclusion, that the conflict will end only when he deems it timely; when his aspirational gains have become reality, and Ukraine, broken and humiliated, will crawl at his imperious feet and beg for mercy.

When a bomb hit Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, it was no mystery who was behind it. Four suspects had been arrested; armed and instructed in their duty while in Russia. The attack took place during the rally of the anniversary of the death of protesters at demonstrations against pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych, killing a policeman and another person.

While Mariupol is in east Ukraine where Mr. Putin's ambitions to sweep the area into Novorossiya prevail, Kharkiv is over 120 miles from the front lines.

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Saturday, February 21, 2015

Take Your Pick: a)A Better Chess Player; b)Face-Saving Bullshit

"Of course, losing is never nice, of course, it's always tough on the loser, especially when you're losing to erstwhile miners or tractor drivers. But life is life, it will definitely go on. I wouldn't get hung up about it."
"Our common goal is to save the lives of people who found themselves encircled. Then we can carry out the full plan agreed in Minsk. I am sure that can be done."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

"[Putin's goal at Debaltseve was the humiliation of Ukraine, a forced surrender and political disgrace] to cause a political reaction in Ukraine: anger and subsequent destabilization. Moscow is dreaming of a Kyiv coup d'etat."
Pavel Felgengauer, Russian military expert
"There was no encirclement, and our troops left the area in a planned and organized manner with all the heavy weaponry: tanks, APCs, self-propelled artillery and vehicles."
"We were asserting and proved: Debaltseve was under our control."
"I would like to say that Russia, which  yesterday required the Ukrainian warriors to lay down arms, raise the white flag and surrender, was put to shame by the given actions."
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko


Servicemen ride on a tank as they leave Debaltseve.
Servicemen ride on a tank as they leave Debaltseve. Photograph: Reuters
The truth goes something like this: Vladimir Putin planned stealthily and well, infiltrating Ukraine with Russian servicemen, their identifying badges removed, so they were merely volunteers on vacation from the military; ardent supporters of the rebel cause doing their bit to rectify the oppression by Kyiv of Russian-speakers who happen to live in Ukraine as underdogs, loyal to Moscow.

As loyalists they would deliver to Moscow Ukraine's crown jewels of the Crimea, Mariupol, and the Dombass region, including the country's industrial heartland -- and three million citizens, for good measure.

Thus far, all has gone according to plan. All the right moves made, from supplying up-to-date technical hardware, large and small, militia training to make of those miners and tractor drivers formidable Kalashnikov-wielding soldiers of Novorossiya, proud pioneers of a brave new land melded with the Russian federation under the pretense of aiming for protection of the Russian language, and political autonomy as the threshold to the moveable home.

Contrary to Mr. Poroshenko's desperate attempt at face-saving the stark reality was reported by Anastasia Stanko, from Kyiv's Hromadske TV that Ukrainian forces were walking calmly along otherwise clear roads, or riding departing military vehicles in an organized  retreat. They were exhausted, demoralized, hungry and thirsty, relieved to be able to depart a situation they were convinced would destroy them.

The retreat honourable and heavy-hearted, some of their equipment left behind, destroyed by the relentless rebel assault.

The surrender of Debaltseve to Moscow's proxy militias was a triumph for the rebels. The Ukrainians timed their retreat to the shelling their columns were treated to by the separatists. The retreating military was not pursued, it was simply given a shelling of a send-off. The issue was Debaltseve itself, leaving Ukraine "holding the new defence lines", consonant with the rebel understanding of the ceasefire agreement.

So is Vladimir Putin with his debased version of honour and veracity suffering greatly in any manner by his obvious actions leading to Ukraine's defeat on the field of conflict but its victory in the area of international relations? Debatable, that most certainly is. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban is happy with a major nuclear power plant expansion courtesy of Russian know-how. And Cypriot President Nicos Anasiades, is set to visit friendly Moscow.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has accepted an invitation to visit Mr. Putin in Moscow following Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias earlier visit. Egypt is reconciled with Moscow and buying arms there once again along with four nuclear reactors and natural gas. Israel is supplying Russia with drones. Trade with China has picked up substantially, and India has 20 agreements signed with Russia valued at $100-billion for nuclear reactor sales along with oil and gas shipments.

Moreover, India has an Indo-Crimean Partnership fostering trade with Crimea, a Republic now in the Russian Federation. Egypt, Israel and India have plans to join the Moscow-promoted Eurasian Economic Union. If Russia is suffering overmuch from the sanctions imposed on it by Europe and North America and the excruciating financial blow of collapsed oil prices, it's hard to see. Russian counter-sanctions have cost Germany an estimated 8 billion euros last year.

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Friday, February 20, 2015

In Anticipation

"If you have the first indication of self-proclaimed groups beginning to ask for autonomy or independence within one of the three countries, then you have to be involved immediately."
"The key is to maintain an element of ambiguity: to say to Putin, 'If you try it, then you might get a response which you never bargained for'."
"If you play some games in Latvia, you might find 20,000 NATO troops arriving in the country."
Jonathan Eyal, head, security studies, Royal United Services Institute
The retreat continues: Ukrainian servicemen approach Artemivsk after withdrawing from the key town of Debaltseve.
The retreat continues: Ukrainian servicemen approach Artemivsk after withdrawing from the key town of Debaltseve. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are more than slightly concerned that Vladimir Putin's ambitions may very well turn toward them when he has finished eviscerating Ukraine's geography to his satisfaction. They are under no illusions that Moscow has any moral scruples about abusing their sovereign borders. They have, after all, viewed at fairly close range in the Baltics what has been happening in Ukraine.

Of course the difference is that Ukraine is not a member of NATO nor the European Union. Although Ukraine's plight in reflection of the massive assault on internationally recognized norms of state conduct respecting national borders and the sovereignty of nations has been lost on no one. No one expected it, in fact, viewing Europe as more or less consolidated into one huge, comfortable continent once the fervour of imperial control had drifted into the past with the dissolution of the USSR.

Who might have imagined, in their naivety that the ambition had dwindled, not perished, and was resurgent in the talons of another Russian strongman, determined to return pride to Russia, restoring the honour of its pride of place as a world power. And the powerful have a propensity to inspire fear and foreboding in the lesser nations; always with good reason.

As members of NATO, however, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have a powerful ally that circumstances denied Ukraine. They, unlike Ukraine, rest in the protective shade of the North Atlantic treaty Article V stating that "an armed attack against any signatory" be considered "an attack against them all", ensuring that counter-measures be undertaken "including the use of armed force."

But Vladimir Putin is cagey and resourceful; just as he has repeatedly denied ordering troops and materiel into Ukraine to aid the pro-Russian rebels, using evasive tactics to label aid humanitarian in nature, and troops not representative of the military at all, but merely 'volunteers' on their time off committing to aiding the separatists' goal, he would likely make use of very similar tactics in the event his acquisitive instinct focused on the Baltic states.

Guerrilla warfare has seen a new lease on life; as old as conflict itself, it has served Russia well in the last year, enabling it to eviscerate eastern Ukraine as it did Georgia earlier, with more to come. While thousands of Russian troops are known to have crossed the border into Ukraine with their mechanized war machines, they were artfully managed and camouflaged. Credible witnesses aside, Moscow still insists on the wounded innocence of non-interference and misunderstanding.

The invasion of a sovereign country for the purpose of aiding a rebellion that just happened to enrich the Russian sphere of influence and geography was indeed a reality, but one shaded in grey, a behind-the-shadows success of intrigue and blatant lies. The same kind of creeping assault that succeeded in humiliating and crippling Ukraine would leave NATO with the conundrum of an undeclared conflict posing as an innocent byproduct of help extended to Russian speakers whose welfare concerns Russia.

Unless, as diagnoses and prescribes Jonathan Eyal and doubtless others of his experience and professional interpretation, the first sparks from the first embers are stamped upon, and the flames extinguished before they flare into a full-bore wildfire. Beware the propaganda of subversion and its accompanying protests leading to 'popular' revolt.

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Thursday, February 19, 2015

Ukraine Abandoned

"We're very happy to be here [Artemivsk, not far from Debaltseve]."
"We were praying all the time and already said goodbye to our lives a hundred times."
Exhausted, demoralized Ukrainian soldier

"[The troop pullout took place] in a planned and organized manner. We managed to show to the whole world the true face of the bandit-separatists backed by Russia."
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
Ukrainian servicemen who fought in Debaltseve raise their unit flag before leaving for home, near Artemivsk February 19, 2015. Fighting raged in eastern Ukraine on Thursday despite European efforts to resurrect a still-born ceasefire, a day after pro-Russian separatists who spurned the truce forced thousands of government troops out of a strategic town. (REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)

The 2,500 government troops ingloriously departed from Debaltseve, the railroad town in eastern Ukraine, whose defaulted handover to the separatist rebels will now give them the unimpeded and direct link between Luhansk and Donetsk that they had planned for, and established the month-long siege to accomplish. Ceasefire? Oh, was there a ceasefire? Well, it was meant to be recognized elsewhere, clearly not just there, in Debaltseve.

The exhausted, dirt-plastered Ukrainian soldiers who plodded their way out of the city on foot spoke of their forces having suffered heavy losses. How could it be otherwise, given that no supplies were able to breach the encirclement by the Russian-backed rebels; no ammunition, no food, no water. But the truce will go on, presumably, elsewhere. To preserve that possibility it was required that Kyiv once again make a sacrifice. Not that a real choice presented itself.

Cossack commander Nikolai Kozitsyn, foreground, a Russian national known to his fellow rebel fighters by the nom de guerre "Daddy," walks through a crossroads by the east Ukraine town of Debaltseve on Thursday, February 19, 2015. The town was captured by Russian-backed separatists this week after weeks of bitter battles around the area. (AP Photo/ Peter Leonard)

Ukraine's national army is no match for that of the Russian Federation, after all, even if Moscow has not interfered one iota in a match between the Ukrainian military and the rebel militias who on their own courageously faced off against a superior antagonist. Which, had that been the case, the situation would have been reversed, but not quite to Vladimir Putin's liking. It's entirely possible that Mr. Poroshenko partially believed that Mr. Putin's word could be trusted. But which of his words?

Now the transportation connections have been solidified to the satisfaction of Moscow and the separatists. "We had enough forces and means. The problem is the command and coordination. They are as bad as can be" wrote Semyon Semenchanko, a battalion commander and member of parliament who accused the military command of betrayal in Debaltseve. Weigh that against Denis Pushilin, a rebel official claiming that the rebels had overpowered the soldiers killing and forcing surrender.

A pro-Russia rebel holds a flag of the rebel-held city of Luhansk in Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2015. After weeks of relentless fighting, the embattled Ukrainian rail hub of Debaltseve fell Wednesday to Russia-backed separatists, who hoisted a flag in triumph over the town. The Ukrainian president confirmed that he had ordered troops to pull out and the rebels reported taking hundreds of soldiers captive. (AP Photo/ Peter Leonard)

Verification of anything said by vested interests is not possible since neutral international journalists were blocked from accessing Debaltseve. Though Russian television ran videos of rebels raising the Novorossiya flag in Debaltseve, along with images of captured Ukrainian troops ushered along a village road by the rebels. The intense rebel shelling had made it impossible for the military to obtain basic supplies, not even food or water.

Ukrainian servicemen who fought in Debaltseve are seen near Artemivsk
Ukrainian servicemen who fought in Debaltseve are seen near Artemivsk February 19, 2015. Fighting raged in eastern Ukraine on Thursday despite European efforts to resurrect a still-born ceasefire, a day after pro-Russian separatists who spurned the truce forced thousands of government troops out of a strategic town. (REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)

Ukrainian soldiers spoke of sheltering in bunkers for hours on end because of the shelling. But, then, there is the Minsk ceasefire agreement to be considered for full implementation. Requiring Ukraine to pass laws giving some degree of autonomy, not yet fully delineated, to the newly-consolidated separatist regions. And yes, the issue of official status for the Russian language.

Ignominious capitulation imposed by the harsh reality of Vladimir Putin's diktat. The jackal's triumph.

And how is NATO reacting? Well, it is concerned that Mr. Putin's lust for expanding the Russian Federation has not been slaked. That he will now concentrate elsewhere, say for example, Estonia, some Baltic state or other. So NATO is preparing its rapid response force. In the latest NATO exercise before the turn of the year German soldiers used broomsticks in place of guns; equipment shortage the cause.

Soldiers from the mechanized infantry battalion hadn't 31% of their MG3 general-purpose machine guns, 41% of their P8 handguns and over 75% of the Lucie night-vision devices for their use on that occasion; so a pantomime performance took place. General Harold Kujat, former German chief of staff for the armed forces and chairman of the NATO military committee spoke of the occasion as a "huge embarrassment".

So there you have it, embarrassment on two fronts; strike one out for Ukraine, another for NATO.

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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Ukraine in Tatters

"We will cease fire with the exclusion of internal areas, that is to say Debaltseve."
"There is not a single word about Debaltseve in the Minsk agreement. Kyiv has betrayed thousands of soldiers there."
Alexander Zakharchenko, leader, Donetsk People's Republic

"We've opened a road parallel to the main highway, which they've cut at Logvinovo. Now they will try to take that route too."
Semen Semenchenko, commander, Donbass volunteer battalion

"Those are our positions being hit. A ceasefire is when no one is firing. But compared with yesterday, which was bloody awful, and the day before that, which was also bloody awful, this is all right."
Ukrainian Berkut special police unit soldier

"The issue [request from Ukraine for UN peacekeepers to be deployed to eastern Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire] was discussed and a decision has been taken to appeal to the UN and the EU concerning the setting up in Ukraine of a peacekeeping and security operation."
Olexander Turchynov, Ukraine's national security and defence council

Ukrainian troops ride on an armoured vehicle outside Artemivsk, Ukraine, after pulling out of Debaltseve - 18 February 2015 President Poroshenko said about 2,500 troops withdrew from Debaltseve on Wednesday

Well, "all right" didn't last, nor did the soldier who mouthed those words expect that it would. Anatoliy Stelmakh, speaking for the Ukrainian military, stated that the pro-Russian insurgents had used "every kind of weapon, including Grad rockets" in Debaltyseve. "The rebels tried to storm our positions three times", he noted. Perhaps the thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who had been hemmed in by the rebels might have managed to retain their positions, but they were not being re-supplied and simply ran out of ammunition. Leading them to voluntarily retire.

Having declared unequivocally that Debaltseve was not part of the ceasefire agreement, and with malice aforethought ignoring the very assurances they signed, the militants, backed by a Russian presence and Russian hardware, simply overwhelmed the embattled Ukrainian forces. And though observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation were to have been given monitoring access to Debaltseve and surrounding areas, they were denied access, and for obvious reasons.

Ukrainian servicemen near Artemivsk after leaving area around Debaltseve - 18 February 2015
All Wednesday, the road out of Debaltseve into government-held territory thundered to the sound of retreating armour - tanks and troop carriers full of exhausted, sometimes defiant soldiers.

The declaration of a ceasefire, like its predecessor, was a sham, a ploy to gain time and advantage, and led by Vladimir Putin who played all the aces; Petro Poroshenko, urged to accept unacceptable conditions by Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande was left with no option but to hope against hope that the courage of his convictions would lead fate to convince Mr. Putin to honour his own signature, a hope that simply denied the reality of the man's despicable ambition.

Russia and its proxy Ukrainian militia conspired to deceive a desperate, but not quite trusting Kyiv to sign the ceasefire, and their worst fears were realized. Debaltseve, a direct link between Luhansk and Donetsk, with the retreat of the embattled 2,500 Ukrainian troops has now fallen into rebel possession. The ceasefire was not violated, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, since it was a rebel-held city at the time the agreement was signed. The map below says otherwise, of course.

Map showing the besieged city of Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine

"The hopes of the world for peace are being destroyed. Russia and the DNR [self-styled Donetsk People's Republic] are not abiding by the agreement. [The situation is leading to] further escalation."
Valeriy Chaly, deputy head, Ukraine presidential administration, Kyiv

"We have to respond to fire, to work on destroying the enemy's fighting positions. We do not have the right [to stop]. It is a moral thing."
Denis Pushlin, senior separatist representative

Now that's a use of language that George Orwell would glow with pride in. A "moral" thing, no less.

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Sunday, February 15, 2015

Respecting The Ceasefire....

"The Russian military has deployed a large amount of artillery and multiple rocket launcher systems around Debaltseve, where it is shelling Ukrainian positions."
"We are confident that these are Russian military, not separatist systems."
U.S. State Department

"Debaltseve is, and will remain, one of the hottest spots. In general, the truce is being observed here, but we expect that it will be the critical place in terms of facilitating a real ceasefire."
Ukrainian ambassador-at-large Dmytro Kuleba
Debaltseve
Members of the Ukrainian armed forces near Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters
 Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko gave instructions to his troops to hold fire, to honour the second of the negotiated agreements that France and Germany persuaded Vladimir Putin to agree to. Not that much persuasion was required, since Moscow was given virtually all it wanted, other than extra time to allow the secessionist rebels to take Debaltseve before the signing of the agreement. In an attempt to save his country from further bloodshed and Russian predation, Mr. Poroshenko signed an agreement that was humiliating and unjust.

And he was led to that position as a sacrificial lamb to the slaughter. Germany and France have been as hard hit by the economic sanctions that have targeted Russia as Russia itself has been. The fallout from the sanctions have done little to help those countries emerge from the still-lingering effects of the global economic meltdown. And to prolong the situation would give them little comfort for the long term effects on their economies. They did the bidding of the European Union.

Russian-backed forces launched their sustained assault against Debaltseve, despite the conditions of the ceasefire agreement. Rebel leaders insisting that it is their right to do so. In their minds they had planned on capturing the railroad town, and as far as they are concerned the agreement won't deter them from continuing their assault since they claim that Debaltseve sits in their territory, not that of Ukraine.

The United States has announced it is prepared to deploy "tank busting" Warthog aircraft to give Russia second thoughts about its covert and very obvious aggression in Ukraine. The U.S. plans to send a dozen A-10 Thunderbolts, infantry support jets with fierce firepower, and 300 personnel to accompany them to Germany at month's end, according to Lieut.-Gen. Tom Jones, vice-commander of U.S. Air forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa.

Fears are that the conflict in Ukraine could further escalate and result in a confrontation between Russia and the West should the latest ceasefire agreement fail, as appears on early results likely. Up to 8,000 Ukrainian troops have been hemmed in at Debaltseve by massed separatist forces. A last minute effort to seal the encirclement trapping the Ukrainian garrison before the ceasefire came into effect saw Russian-backed fighters advance on two sides; a months'-long effort.

To gain more time to make the capture of the town more likely, President Putin had wanted to put off the ceasefire signing for an additional week. Separatists plan on capturing the port of Mariupol as well from Ukrainian forces, giving Russia its planned-for land link to Crimea. Ukraine's deputy defence minister Petro Mekhed, said that the separatist forces had been ordered by Moscow to raise their flags over Debaltseve and Mariupol by Sunday, the onset of the ceasefire agreement.

Ukrainian military officials insisted the road into Debaltseve was open, but Semen Semenchenko, commander of a pro-Kyiv militia, the Donbass Battalion, denied the official line, that it "does not correspond with reality". "Logvino", a village at the main road in and out of Debaltseve, he said "is under the control of the terrorist and Russian forces." But the separatists, he said, had not yet sealed the "Debaltseve pocket"; the Ukrainians yet had control of country roads in and out of the area.

Members of the Ukrainian armed forces are seen not far from Debaltseve, Ukraine.
Members of the Ukrainian armed forces near Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine. A deal was agreed that called for a ceasefire to begin at midnight on Sunday. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters

It is not only the rebels who have acted beyond the ceasefire; three trucks of Ukrainian soldiers in battle gear were stationed on the highway to Luhansk while a squad commander from a volunteer battalion said that Ukrainian forces were reinforcing their positions toward Debaltseve. It is, after all, despite all of Moscow's interference and military actions, still Ukraine that these activities are taking place within.

Positions in the village of Zolote in the Luhansk region were shelled in the early morning hours and according to Luhansk governor Gennady Moskal, a "complete ceasefire has not happened", with active conflict ongoing in several areas. The town of Popasna was attacked by secessionists with Grad rockets. And fighting had continued on a second major front near the city of Mariupol, according to the Azov volunteer battalion.


Good thing there's a ceasefire in effect, otherwise things could get fairly nasty, right?.

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