generalspeaking

Ukraine, Asserting Itself

Slowly but steadily the government is pushing back the insurgents and re-establishing their authority. And it's likely to the great relief of the greater community they've been restored to normalcy. It is far too early in the conflict to determine whether this will have lasting effects leading to an eventual end to the insurgency. But that great strides have been made in putting it down seems undeniable. A turning point it may well be.

On the other hand, the rebels still retain some strength in the numbers in their ranks. They have possession of significant weapons stores and military hardware. There remains a fair amount of territory in their control in the east, however diminished in recent days. They insist they are motivated to fight to the last man. Here's hoping they have that opportunity. For the present, they're
leaving, tails between their legs.Preservation, in this case, representing the better part of valour.



The main rebel commander, Igor Strelkov, said they had no option but to depart, given the momentum and strength of the government's bombardment. Were they to have remained, he said "We will be exterminated in the course of a week, two weeks at most", stimulating an urgency to their decision to move on and surrender the territory they had so recently gloated was in their possession.

He hadn't many kind words to describe Russia in his claims it was withholding what he described as promised assistance. "Russia does not want to help [the insurgents] be reunited with their people. It's very hard to admit that we have had no help for three months", he complained. He expected Russia to either attempt to establish a truce or to send "peacekeepers" into Ukraine. Russia has previously sent its peacekeepers, and in so doing, took Crimea.

As for the truce, it had been up to the rebels to honour the offers made by President Poroshenko and they chose instead to scorn them.


Naming their decision to leave what they had gained a "tactical retreat", it was no less a retreat, in any event. The renewed determination and the emphasis of the Ukrainian military's assault on the rebels appeared to take them by surprise. For the first time in the months of agonized conflict the rebels are on the run and the government forces have achieved the ascendancy.

The reality was that the government forces' deployment in numbers and arms outclassed that of the rebels.

Leaving them, as they saw it, little choice but to abandon two of the main bases of their success as operation hubs, cities they had taken three months earlier, since maintained as a triumphant symbol of their peerless advantage as an entitled Russian stronghold in the greater Ukrainian geography which they meant to disengage from that geography and hand over as war booty to Moscow. Their dominance in Ukraine's east is now in question.


The misery and dismay the rebels are evincing doesn't quite convince some observers who feel they may be deliberate ploys at disinformation. Suspicion remains that Russia may deliver a military intervention, one both the Kremlin and the rebels would justify, claiming that their human rights have been impinged upon, and the Kremlin that it had no option but to ride to the defence of their vulnerable Russian-speaking brethren.





Through all of this there are accusations coming afresh from Ukrainian and Western officials that Moscow continues to its commitment of permitting fighters and equipment to infiltrate the border into Ukraine. Russia wants to keep its involvement as oblique as possible, not to be implicated in anything that might point to its active assistance to the rebels.

Although denying it is backing the insurgency it cannot and does not deny that many Russian citizens are involved on the rebels' side in the conflict. Mr. Strelkov is himself a native of Moscow. According to Ukrainian authorities he is in actual fact a former Russian military intelligence officer.

Moscow prefers to portray itself as a neutral observer, merely concerned over the welfare of Russian speakers. They have never hesitated to condemn escalations in the violence in the past. Latterly they have been more circumspect and silent, aside from calling for a ceasefire. As for the insurgents, while grumbling about their "tactical retreat" in the face of overwhelming odds and firepower, they are actively planning to launch a counter-offensive.

Yet unknown is whether to regard the fall of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as a turning point in the conflict. Caution and optimistic practicalities would seem to dictate prudent tight lips over the turn of events. In the words of President Poroshenko: "Now is not the time for firework celebrations".

Not just yet, in any event. Time will tell. Kyiv, in any event, has made it abundantly clear to Moscow
that its sovereignty is no longer to be toyed with. Regaining Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the rebels is one thing; restoring Crimea from Russia is another matter altogether, though Mr. Poroshenko has vowed that he intends to do just that.

Labels: Aggression, Conflict, Crisis Management, Russia, Secession, Ukraine

posted by Pieface @ Monday, July 07, 2014