generalspeaking

The Making of a President

"In terms of security, it is expected that he would be able to function well but he has not been tested when it comes to foreign policy. If he succeeds with the ceasefire, it is good for Egypt and good for the president."
Maye Kessem, professor of political science, American University of Cairo

The Gaza crisis provides Sisi with an opportunity to resurrect Egypt's regional role."
"But because of his crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, Sisi does not have a lot of influence on Hamas, which jeopardizes Egypt's prospects for success."
Lina Al-Khatib, director, Carnegie Middle East Centre, Beirut

"If you read the Arab press, many of the commentators do not like it but they don't dare to say he is pro-Israel."
"The Arab world is in a difficult position. People are more afraid of the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) than anything else."
Tzvi Mazel, former Israeli ambassador to Egypt

Egyptian president Abdel Fatteh Al-Sisi is proving himself to be an adept leader of Egypt. He has inherited a failing economy, a country divided between Islamic support for the Muslim Brotherhood, and violent attacks against the country's police and military, particularly in the Sinai by Salafist Bedouin, al-Qaeda militias, and Brotherhood affiliates. And now he has shown himself capable of heading the most populous Arab country in the Middle East, as a leader able to make hard choices.

Those choices represent the decision to declare the Muslim Brotherhood, popular among the poorer rural and traditionally Islamic element of the country of 86-million a terrorist, outlawed group, and with them their junior membership, Hamas. He has chosen to respect the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, and to continue to have his Egyptian intelligence services work in tandem with Israel's to avert as many jihadist attacks as can be detected.

That process includes marginalizing Hamas, destroying its smuggling tunnels leading from Gaza into Egypt. It includes closing the Rafah crossing to ensure that weapons and fighters are not smuggled in and out of Egypt and Gaza to contribute to the strife that has hampered Egypt's attempts to bring control and stability to the country, let alone Israel's right to live in peace and security. 

And he has demonstrated Egypt's newly re-awakened clout in the Arab world by  allying Egypt's military with that of the UAE in conducting bombing missions in Libya to prevent its complete breakdown into a terrorist Islamist state in the knowledge that the elected government is itself incapable of protecting the best interests of the country and preventing its takeover by Islamists.

This former head of the Egyptian military has seamlessly reinvented himself as the president of his country, reaffirming what has become a tradition in Egypt, interrupted for the space of a year when Mohammed Morsi was elected to represent the Muslim Brotherhood as president, but whose stealth Islamism repelled the majority of Egyptians who demanded his overthrow. Morsi had ignored the warning he was given by his Chief of Defense, then al-Sisi, and he has lived to rue that day.

Now he is focusing on the role as mediator between Israel and Hamas, a group he has no love for, but with the knowledge that the Arab world is looking on and expecting any negotiations to be conducted with neutrality, favouring neither in particular. Not Israel, as a non-Arab, non-Muslim state in a Muslim geography, nor Hamas, an anomaly in a fanatically Islamist Sunni militia-offshoot of the Brotherhood, governing Gaza, a former Egyptian protectorate.

For the Arab League and the Arab Street, Mr. al-Sisi must be seen as "anti-Hamas, which much of the population supports", according to Ms. Kassem, but definitely not too warm with Israel. A coalition between Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, with Israel quietly cheering them on in the background could provide the required weight to unbalance the strength of Iran, Qatar and Turkey, seen to be backing Hamas.
 

Labels: Egypt, Hamas, Israel, Middle East, Negotiations

posted by Pieface @ Thursday, August 28, 2014