Russia's Future
"Putin has far less room to manoeuvre financially, which creates difficulties for him, and as a result, the cost of any mistakes he may make could be critical. For Putin, even $120 a barrel for oil is a problem because, with his system of rule, he can't survive without the revenue from raw materials growing every year."
"I believe that the problem for Putin will come from within his own entourage. For my country, it would be better if things happened this way than through clashes on the streets, as a palace coup would spill less blood."
"The same countries are playing the same role as they did one hundred years ago. I hope that the methods that Vladimir Ilyich used are firmly in the past."
"I wouldn't count on the regime being toppled only as the result of mistakes in the economy, or the fall in oil prices or sanctions, you need something more. You need a Black Swan moment."
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former billionaire owner of Russia's Yukos Oil Co.; Zurich, Switzerland
"We know that the Russians say that their activity is a reaction to NATO actions. For us, this raises an alarm."
"[Most of the Russian military activities in international airspace and waters did not] look like preparations for an attack [but the actions do nothing to build trust]."
Tomasz Siemoniak, Polish Minister of Defence
Norway claimed a "near miss" in the country's north with a Russian fighter, and Finland's air force reported "unusually intense" activity over the Gulf of Finland by Russian bombers, fighters and transport planes moving between the Russian mainland and Kaliningrad, located between Poland and Lithuania, while the head of Russia's general staff accused NATO of using the Ukraine situation to expand again toward Russia's borders with a buildup of NATO troops, ships and aircraft near the Baltic and Black seas.
Russia, the villain, making its neighbours tense and apprehensive, in a frenzy of self-defense and anticipation for the future. For its part, Moscow has more than enough concerns relating to its frail financial situation, rendering its nervous tension palpably frictionable, and perhaps it feels it has little to lose under the current atmosphere and might as well get its thrills in tormenting its tormentors. The question seems to be on many minds; how long can this last?
Likely as long as Vladimir Putin does. His penchant for threats no longer quite so veiled, and shrugging off the effects of sanctions that without the loss of a return on oil and gas would never have impacted Russia's economy to the extent they have, identifies him as a man with little to lose, prepared to give no opportunities to his critics to be too smug about the hellish place he finds himself now in. If he has to sweat out the future, then so too do they, never quite knowing what his volatile
sense of provocation will next think up.
As for Mikhail Khodorkovsky, his wealth as an oligarch enabling him to fund opposition to Putin, landed him in prison as a tax evader on trumped up charges to dissolve his energy holdings back into a state energy conglomerate, as he bided his time as a convicted felon until his release. Ten years in prison is a hard lesson learned, but one that he claims has not embittered him personally against Mr. Putin, simply made him more determined to use the hundred-million he still has possession of to fund yet more political opposition.
He has staked his future and that of Russia on the strength of the Russian people themselves to finally rouse themselves and recognize their best interests lie not in remaining an outlier country punished by the international community for the outrages committed by an autocratic leader committed to a renaissance of the Soviet Union, but toward normalizing the country in tune with its neighbours recognizing the utility of aligning with the rest of Europe in a spirit of global community.
The process of which will require a total rejection of the conflict machinations of a man whose megalomaniac tendencies have only served to discredit Russia in its alignments with other countries whose reputation for violently stilling political dissent, imprisoning journalists, worshipping past ideological excesses, committing scarce treasury to military build-ups, making common cause with nuclear-weapons-seeking dictators and dissolving ties to democracy have injured the country and its people.
Labels: Conflict, Economy, Energy Resources, NATO, Russia
posted by Pieface @ Monday, December 15, 2014
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