generalspeaking

Signing On For Peace (Temporarily)

"They don't think it's something funny. They take it very seriously. You need only look around to understand why."
"They were very scared. Many of them were crying. I tried to calm them down. I said, 'No, it's not real, it's just a game'."
"But they said, no, they did not believe me. They said it was not a game. They knew. You see, it was not their first shelling."
Elena Klemanchuk, Fourth-grade teacher, Public School 68, Mariupol

"Before it happened [salvo of Grad rockets], everybody told us we had three lines of defence and we were perfectly safe."
"But then we were shown that we were not as well protected as we believed."
Victor Perkov, head, Public School 68

"In September, Mariupol was very weak and poorly defended. There was a kind of panic in the city. In September, we managed to stop them [rebel army] only by luck."
"I feel confident that we have enough troops and enough weaponry in place to successfully protect the city now."
Andrey Dzyndzya, fighter, Azov Battalion

The violence in the battle for the critical railroad town of Debatseve is just the appetizer leading the focus to swerve toward Mariupol in the south, the industrial port city yet in government hands, while rebel forces mass around it. On Tuesday, Ukrainian military authorities stated that national guard units had launched an offensive against rebel positions closing in on Mariupol. Someone speaking for the Azov Battalion announced it had captured Shirokino and Pavlopol, small towns just outside the city.

For their part, rebels laid claim to having surrounded the city of Debaltseve even as the Ukrainian Army insisted the battle was continuing. Kramatorsk saw artillery shells landing 50 miles to its northern edge where Kyiv has a good-sized military base. The critical city of Mariupol is the ultimate goal. Capturing it would result in the realization of the Russian and rebel goal to open a land route between Russia and Crimea, and controlling the Sea of Azov along with its industrial infrastructure.

Local military and government leaders see the situation in Mariupol different, defended by the Azov Battalion, a complete ring of defensive lines. The St.Mary's Battalion, another volunteer group, is situated just east of the city centre, holding training exercises, teaching new recruits how to move in crisp group formation. Wearing combat gear, the recruits are void of rifles, but practising pantomime fashion; as though holding weapons as they move through military exercises.


Grigory Logvinenko, commander of the checkpoint to the east of the city where the rebel positions can be seen four miles' distance, spoke of material he hopes will be given to Ukraine by the United States; updated equipment, more accurate artillery, anti-tank weapons. Ideally, shoulder-fired antiarmour missiles, and the Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio System, along with Counter-battery radar. "And we would not mind a couple of drones", he said wistfully.

A hiatus is in the offing, however. Yet another ceasefire agreement, signed by Kyiv, Moscow and the Rebels, brought into a concord of seeming intention by the frantic intervention of Germany and France, satisfied that they have succeeded in reaching an agreement to honour a ceasefire to begin on February 15. In the meanwhile, both sides can continue to push their lines forward to extract the best possible outcome before the ceasefire takes effect.

Sounds familiar, doesn't it? Reminiscent of the last ceasefire signed in Minsk in September that faltered and collapsed with neither side honouring its terms. Why should a country surrender its legitimate borders to a rebel group planning its evisceration, after all? And how likely will it be in the longer term given Russian aspirations with the obvious plan to achieve that land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula that it will be shelved indefinitely?


Skeptical or not, here are the broad outlines; reading between the lines is not strictly obligatory:

• Ceasefire to begin at 00:01 local time on 15 February
• Heavy weapons to be withdrawn, beginning on 16 February and completed in two weeks
• All prisoners to be released; amnesty for those involved in fighting
• Withdrawal of all foreign troops and weapons from Ukrainian territory. Disarmament of all illegal groups
• Ukraine to allow resumption of normal life in rebel areas, by lifting restrictions
• Constitutional reform to enable decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of 2015
• Ukraine to control border with Russia if conditions met by the end of 2015

Labels: Aggression, Ceasefire, Conflict, Russia, Secession, Ukraine

posted by Pieface @ Thursday, February 12, 2015