generalspeaking

Ukrainian Russian Paranoia?

"What exactly has Russia bought with its signature under the deal to close down Iran's nuclear program?"
"At least a special status for the Donbass in the constitution, and that's why Nuland came to control the vote."
"[Additional Russian support on Syria and Iran could be part of the deal] made without Ukraine's participation at Ukaine's expense."
Andrei Illarionov, former Putin advisor

"Russia was a help on this. I’ll be honest with you. I was not sure given the strong differences we are having with Russia right now around Ukraine, whether this would sustain itself. Putin and the Russian government compartmentalised on this in a way that surprised me."
"We would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia’s willingness to stick with us and the other P5-Plus members in insisting on a strong deal."
U.S. President Barack Obama

The Ukrainian parliament last Thursday decided to send amendments proposed by President Petro Poroshenko: Page 7: "18, The particulars of local government in certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are determined by a special law", to a vote, urged on the president by the United States through the visit by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland in Kyiv, as payment to Moscow for its support during the Iran nuclear negotiations.

Some Ukrainian legislators refused to vote for it. Before the vote Ms. Nuland had invited those parliamentarians that seemed most averse to the amendments to a meeting at the U.S. Embassy. One related after the meeting that Ms. Nuland "insisted that this had to be a demonstration of Ukraine's compliance with the Minsk agreement", the ceasefire deal of last February calling for special status for Ukraine's eastern areas held by the insurgents which included the right to form their own militias.

(It's just as well to recall that the ceasefire deal may have been signed, but it hasn't been completely honoured. Each side blames the other for reneging on the agreement and initiating ongoing conflict. The people living in the east blame the military, and the military blames the insurgents for attacking them. And, in fact, it's likelier that the insurgents have indeed lit the fuse again and the military have responded.)

"It followed from her words that here we'd make a sacrifice and then we'd fight corruption in the rest of the country", said another attendee. "Why does the world want to impose on us a 'special status' for the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics"? asked Deputy Speaker Oksana Syroyid. "The world just wants this to become an 'internal conflict' because it's tired and it wants to get rid of this extremely uncomfortable topic."

Not the world, perhaps, but most certainly the Obama administration which set all these wheels in motion. Moscow would prefer that Ukraine's basic law spell out a broad autonomy for the rebel held areas. Nonetheless a theory held by Ukrainian parliamentarians that a conspiracy was hatched between Washington and Moscow remains firmly entrenched. And why not?

President Obama is now happily musing on what might conceivably follow from his success on the Iran negotiation. Expressing his surprise and appreciation to Vladimir Putin for his role in the finalization of the agreement, he felt an "opening" exists for detente in the most serious disagreements in U.S.-Russian relations in decades. The president stated that an opportunity has opened for a "serious conversation" with Mr. Putin about the disposition of the Syrian file.

The Iran deal not only gave Mr. Obama his legacy moment, but it also satisfied a number of foreign policy goals for Russia, including ending the isolation of Iran and leading eventually to Russia developing further the nuclear program for civilian purposes in Iran, not to speak of reopening the lucrative Russian arms market to Russia's key Middle East ally. Mr Obama revealed further that he had a telephone call from Mr. Putin recently to discuss Syria.

"I think they get a sense that the Assad regime is losing a grip over greater and greater swaths of territory inside of Syria [to Sunni jihadist militias] and that the prospects for a ISIL or al-Nusra takeover or rout of the Syrian regime is not imminent but becomes a greater and greater threat by the day", said Mr. Obama chattily in a New York Times interview.

And while it is very nice that some measure of communication has been restored between Washington and Moscow, political observers remind that Mr. Putin never gives anything away without a price firmly affixed. Which has aroused Ukraine's suspicions of the long-range plans of the man they know well whose fixation on retaining control of the near-abroad of Greater Russia remains alive and well.

Labels: Controversy, Iran, Negotiations, Nuclear Technology, Russia, Ukraine, United States

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, July 25, 2015