A Scenario of the Future
"You have heard the word ‘diversify’ recently in relation to Saudi foreign relations, and the Obama administration has brought home the thought that Saudi must branch out and see the support of other powers."Iran? Influence in the region? Oh, right. Well, there's Qatar, it has a soft spot for Iran. And Turkey seems somewhat conflicted about Iran as well, even though Iran's support for the unspeakable Bashar al Assad the Butcher of Syria is unsupportable. But Islamists just seem to have this thing for one another, the divisions between the Shiite and Sunni sects notwithstanding.
"With this deal, Saudi by necessity will reach out to other world powers. Now the only question is how Russia and China will respond."
Salman Sheikh, director, Brookings Doha Center
"After four decades, we are finally realizing the importance of world powers beside the US – and this is the key to ending the Iranian-supported conflicts in the region."
"If Iran can expand its influence in the region through diplomacy and negotiations, so can we."
Saudi military official
Perhaps the influence will not be confined merely to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. For there are other restive Shia minorities in other Sunni-majority countries that could be persuaded that like Syria, a Shiite-Alawite minority regime can handily control the aspirations of upstart majority Sunnis. Of course al-Assad has been able to manage this with the considerable aid of one of Iran's proxy terrorist groups.
And there's the issue of all those billions soon to be released to Iran with the lifting of sanctions. Not just the $100-billion pending, but an opening up of its oil market to the global community of consuming nations, and the relaxation of the arms embargo. Even while Iran was groaning under the penalty of sanctions and its failed economy it managed somehow to finance and aid insurrection in Yemen, the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Of course its domestic audience took the brunt of the recession that began to bring Iran's economy to its knees. Somewhat like Hamas using the funding at its disposal to build expensive tunnels while complaining to the international community it hadn't the wherewithal to build civic infrastructure for the long-suffering people of Gaza. Now, however, it will be a field day for terrorist groups long dependent on Iranian largess but suffering the lapse of funding of the last few years.
Hezbollah was flailing financially with fighters having their pay cut back and its politicians lacking the recompense due them. As for Hamas, the initial generosity of Qatar was absorbed and then Hamas was left with a collapsed economy after Egypt shut down most of the smuggling tunnels that brought hefty tax revenues to Hamas on smuggled goods. This will all be relegated to the misfortune of the past as a new day dawns.
Gaza's government workers will now be paid, construction will recommence, power plants reopened and Gazan Palestinians will have a refreshed view of Hamas not as their prison wardens but as their benefactors as the territory begins to flourish with the influx of new cash. Iran does want Hamas, after all, to be in robust shape for the next round with Israel, to free al Quds from its illegal control and prepare for all-out war to destroy the Jewish State.
Iran's windfall in the restoration to its treasury of withheld cash will fling its budget into anything-goes territory. The wealth that the Gulf States wallow in will be reflected in spades by Iran's new financial status whereby it will be free to continue with its inexorable aspiration for conquest realized. Courtesy of the Security Council and Germany whose combined wisdom relinquished the success of biting sanctions for the relief of putting negotiations to rest.
Of course, when Iran does achieve its nuclear goal, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and perhaps Egypt will simply be able to 'access' nuclear arms for a price since Pakistan needs the money and has the wherewithal to offer its services and the sale of extraneous nuclear heads. Then the balance of tensions will increase and the assurance that cool heads will prevail is a situation of all bets off in a region that has a paucity of cool heads.
One must remember that Iran is a religion of peace. As far as Iran is concerned peace will arrive when the Hidden Imam appears. The Mahdi will return when Armageddon erupts. Its trigger could be a nuclear disaster. But not to fret; a mass atrocity could take place heralding the arrival of the Mahdi and at his appearance the righteous [read here Iranian mullahs] will rise to Paradise and peace will descend on a shattered world.
Labels: Conflict, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamism, Negotiations, Nuclear Technology, Sanctions, Terrorism
posted by Pieface @ Saturday, July 18, 2015
<< Home