How Now, Bellicose Mouse?
"With this military escalation, the Russians have put themselves back at the center of the Syrian equation and at the forefront of the diplomatic stage."
"But on the ground, returns on their military investment have proven limited and are unlikely to improve."
Noah Bonsey, Syria analyst, International Crisis Group
"What matters is ground power, and that is where we have not seen anything terribly significant in the regime-Russian combination so far."
Frederic C. Hof, (former) U.S. State Department official for Syria
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| Photo: Getty |
Moscow surely has by now recognized that it is facing a perfect storm of threatening potential. Its air campaign in Syria is a costly venture, including the two military installations, the deep-sea port and the military air depot it has committed to. Its bombing missions have not yet resulted in anything remotely positive in the sense of doing harm to the jihadists of the Islamic State. On the other hand, Russia hasn't been focusing on the Islamic State, and it has done harm to the U.S.- and Saudi-backed rebels.
Despite giving ISIL a fairly free pass, it has paid a steep price for whatever bombing raids it has carried out hitting their targets. The loss of a planeload of Russians returning to St.Petersburg from their holidays in the Egyptian Sinai was certainly retribution for Mr. Putin's Syria foray. Relations with Turkey have been perhaps irreparably disrupted, and that too has its price, since the two countries' trade with one another is significant. Moscow's gas diversion pipeline plans will have to be revised.
The already steep humanitarian crisis in Syria has been further impacted with more refugees resulting from Russian air raids targeting rebel groups installed in areas heavily peopled by Syrian civilians. And while the air strikes are continuing, and there is scant little to show in the way of progress, an attempt to withdraw at this point would seem precipitate and would endanger Russia's new position of authority in the Middle East, while prolonging it remains a costly venture.
Oil revenues have steeply declined, and the Russian economy is in dire straits, helped along by the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the E.U. and Canada relating to Russia's earlier foray into Ukraine and its annexing of the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian Federation's lack of friends in eastern Europe concerned over its long-range plans to once again inhale the near abroad and its air challenges over skies in the Scandinavian countries and elsewhere have placed it in the international community's bad book.
Aside from killing hundreds of Syrian citizens as Russian planes bomb "terrorists", Russia is losing its own military members at a rate certain to aggravate Russian mothers of Russian military men who have a penchant for agitation. Russian pilots bombing strategic rebel positions may not sit particularly well with Russian-speaking jihadis who could be persuaded to return home to wreak havoc there in revenge.
Russia has, once again, just like the United States with its various Middle East interventions, placed itself in an untenable position. This is when the best-laid plans of mice and men do often go awry. Vladimir Putin is the mouse that roared once too often and now looks for an escape route.
Labels: Conflict, Islamic State, Rebels, Russia, Syria, Turkey, United States
posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, December 30, 2015
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