Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Afghanistan was the Rehearsal for Syria's Playlist : Logic?

"I think this is an  unprecedented document. It falls under the logic of operations of the Russian side in Syria."
"This logic means that our operations need a firm and clear legal foundation understandable to everyone."
Konstantin Kosachev, head, foreign affairs committee, Russian upper house of parliament

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in October 2015, weeks after Russia began a bombing campaign to support the embattled Syrian leader. (Reuters/Kremlin Pool)

Like a marriage contract, the Kremlin put together a formal legal document to set out the rights and obligations of both sides in the temporary (?) marriage of conflict-convenience between Russia and Syria in aid of maintaining Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power in his destroyed country, while he continues to pound the Syrian Sunni population as punishment for their support of the Sunni rebels responding to the regime's determination to teach them that there is only one entitled demographic in the country; the Alawite minority.

A Russian government website set out the posted details outlining the terms of its aerial support for Assad, revealing that an open-ended time commitment to Moscow's military deployment in Syria, all seven pages of the contract, was to be of huge benefit to both sides, although either side can choose to terminate the agreement with a notice of a year's time before its annulment. A lot can happen in a year's time, but what will not happen is that the regime will choose to dismiss the support of its powerful ally. Whatever damage Russia creates cannot be greater than Assad has managed.

Russian military personnel and shipments have total immunity to pass within and without Syria whenever and wherever they wish. Syrian authorities have surrendered all control over Russian movement and operations. And nor may Syrians enter Russian bases without specific permission from Russian authorities. And Russia has outlined its position on damage caused by any of its actions within Syria; definitely not Russia's responsibility nor is it to be held responsible for any damages.

President Assad appears delighted to accede to all of the Kremlin's self-protective points, grateful for the recapture of some territory from rebel hands. The conflict that was raging before the Russian military flew into the picture was intractable then, and has become increasingly more so; that proverbial light at the end of the tunnel becomes more and more remote and dim. Russia's 70 military planes have flown 5,500 sorties. Rampant destruction  has resulted, more refugees created, bitter enmities cast in stone.

The document is not new; it was signed in August, at the very time that Moscow was indignantly denying any type of commitment of a military vein in Syria. The shipment of military goods to the Russian bases near the coast of Syria represented routine maintenance went the public statement; an echo that served Russia well enough with its forays in Ukraine. Just as in Ukraine furtive troop movements and mechanized entries across the border with Ukraine took place, it was inevitable that Russia's tactics would mature to the reality of a military presence.

President Vladimir Putin who so enjoys taking his detractors by surprise addressed the UN General Assembly with his announcement that Russian warplanes were preparing to begin bombing in Syria but only to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. And although most of the bombing missions clearly missed sighting ISIL targets, hitting Syrian rebels instead, Islamic State took the threat seriously enough to target a Russian passenger jet leaving the Egyptian Sinai with happy Russian vacationers.

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