generalspeaking

Monday, March 05, 2018

The Restless Middle East

"If there is a war, it will be regional."
"Any confrontation will be with the whole resistance front against Israel and its backers."
Kamel Wazne, founder, Center for American Strategic Studies, Beirut

"The ultimate goal is, in the case of another war, to make Syria a new front between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran."
"They are making that not just a goal, but a reality."
Amir Toumaj, research analyst, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

"Israel will face not only quantity, but the threat to vulnerable strategic sites."
"Each one [combination of more precise weapons -- and a new war front] is problematic; together, they are devastating."
Yaakov Amidror, fellow, Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies

Israeli satellite images reveal: Iran builds military base near Damascus.: Imagesat International (ISI)

There is no question that the Islamic Republic of Iran, in its involvement in the Syrian Civil War and its deployment of its surrogate Lebanon-based militia Hezbollah alongside the al-Quds division of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps has positioned itself permanently within Syria as well as Lebanon, in nudging distance of Israel, its long-time target. In so doing it has effectively redrawn the strategic map of the region, manifestly advancing its agenda, and directly threatening the survival of the State of Israel.

Military bases across Syria now host advisers from the Revolutionary Guards Corps whose commanders show up regularly at the front lines, leading battles. The powerful Shiite tribal militias that Iran has built with thousands of loyal fighters trained in Syria and tested in battle, armed with new technologies such as drones to enable spying and in the future air attacks, all assembled, sit on the border like brooding vultures awaiting the signal to swoop into attack mode.

Hugely enabling the mobilization of Iran's network of militant proxies representing what Iran refers to as "the axis of resistance". Iran is prepared at any time to launch a combined attack against Israel from various quarters, not in emulation of the succession of attacks against Israel conducted by Arab armies of various nations that focused on the goal to destroy the nascent Jewish State, but in in a more successful succession to their failures. The pathology of Islamist hatred and slaughter is preeminent.

In marching to the aid of President Bashar al-Assad against Sunni Syrian rebels when civil war resulted in 2011, Iran and its allies set the stage for a re-alignment of the entire Middle East. The rebels, set to gain ground hugely before the intervention of Russia, have been pushed back from territories they once commanded, along with the push-back of Islamic State in Syria. Even though the mission has been mostly accomplished, The Islamic Republic of Iran has no intention of withdrawing.

It continues to train fighters even as it consolidates its links with Iraq and Lebanon, in preparation for a united front to challenge Israel and succeed in its planned destruction. Iran has strengthened its control and growing power in the Arab Middle East, though it is not Arab and despite that it is on the wrong sectarian divide in majority Sunni Islam territory. It has plotted to reduce reliance on conventional military weapons and to focus on ties with local forces with shared goals.

Syrian forces stand next to portraits of Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin at the Wafideen checkpoint on the outskirts of Damascus on March 1, 2018 LOUAI BESHARA (AFP)

In Israel, there are preparations to meet the challenge of the forthcoming "First Northern War", where the Jewish State will be forced to fight across two frontiers; the Lebanese and the Syrian borders. Concerns focus on advanced weaponry handed to Hezbollah by Iran to counter Israel's technologically superior weapons. Intelligence has served Israel well on numerous occasions leading it to bomb weapons convoys headed for Hezbollah, with the knowledge that some arms have slipped through to the terrorist group.

In possession of over 100,000 rockets and missiles sparing of high-precision, it is the more sophisticated replacements to Hezbollah that concern Israeli military strategists. Iran's creation of Hezbollah from a rag-tag Shiite group of Lebanese underprivileged misfits in the 1980s imbuing them with the death-and-martyrdom ideology that motivated their training and devotion to the Islamist cause, began the trajectory that led to its military force as a regional power.

That is being repeated in Iraq where Iran has trained and sponsored Shiite militias. "It's like a replication of the Hezbollah model" noted Ali Rizk, a Lebanese analyst. The wild card in Iran's deck appears to be Russia, itself integrally and permanently installed in Syria and increasingly across the wider Middle East. And it has been noted that Russia has not murmured in dissent at Israel's bombing of convoys bound for Hezbollah.

In seeking to maintain amicable relations with both Israel and Syria, and to remain agnostic with Iran, Russia may in fact, become a stabilizing influence in the Middle East. On the other hand, there is no second-guessing Vladimir Putin whose mission is to promote Russia at all costs, and if there is no advantage to Russia in any particular 'side' that Moscow supports, all bets are off.