Tenuous On-Again Off-Again Tensions with North Korea
"The North Koreans are likely to see the rebuilding [of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station]not as an active part of their missile program, but of their civilian space program."
"Given how much has been done at this site, it looks like more than a couple days’ worth of activity." "It’s hard to say if it happened immediately after the summit and they just rushed everything – I guess it’s possible – but it’s more likely that it started just before."
"It’s unfortunate because this was one of the unilateral steps that the North Koreans were making at the beginning of the negotiation process as sort of a confidence-building measure, and so certainly this does have implications for how the North Koreans are thinking about the negotiation process." "It’s highly unlikely that any of these kinds of unilateral measures will be offered again unless there is an actual agreement in place going forward."
Jenny Town, 38 North research group
"I would be very disappointed if that were happening [North Korea preparing to resume its intercontinental ballistic missile testing].
"[I would be very, very disappointed in Chairman Kim. [It was] a very early report. We'll see what happens."
"We'll take a look. It will ultimately get solved."
U.S. President Donald Trump
Satellite images have revealed that North Korea appears to have begun rebuilding a key missile test site. The satellite images of the facility showed cranes in places on the site of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station used to test technology related to ICBMs. An estimated activity start between mid-February and early March, places the initiation of work closely before, during or immediately following the U.S. president's meeting with Kim Jong Un in Vietnam that ended with no agreement.
Two research groups, the Center for Strategic Studies Beyond Parallel project and 38 North have concluded activity was ongoing at the site, once they interpreted the satellite footage. South Korea's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service also reported a similar assessment during a briefing to a committee of the country's politicians.
In just the past several weeks it seems that two areas of the Sohae station appear to have been developed at both the launch pad and the engine test site, where some buildings appear to have been re-assembled. One South Korean lawmaker stated that NIS director Suh Hoon felt the structures being restored at the launch site include roofs and building doors and that the activity could be preparations for the restart of long-range rocket launches should nuclear diplomacy collapse.
Intelligence experts gave warning that too many conclusions should not be hastily drawn since such activity does not necessarily spell out that North Korea is preparing to restart missile launches. Also pointing out that the regime would know that any such developments at the facility would be seen by U.S. satellites monitoring those sites.
"If North Korea does something they want us to know, they would say it. They haven't said anything.""We don't know enough to say one way or the other. My own guess is it's too early to think that this is a response to [what] happen[ed] in Hanoi."
Joseph Yun, the State Department's former special representative for North Korea policy
Labels: ICBMs, North Korea, Reconstruction, Test Site
posted by Pieface @ Friday, March 08, 2019
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