Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Traditional U.S. Alliances: Now You See Them ... Soon You Won't

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"Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea."
"These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America [as usual], but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful."
U.S. President Donald J. Trump 
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Chinese President Xi Jinping made a rare visit to North Korea to meet with Kim Jong Un, where the two moved closer to improving economic ties despite North Korea strengthening its relationship with Russia. Still from video, CBC News
 
Mr. Trump's great good friend saw to it that Pyongyang test-fired a ballistic missile recently over the Sea of Japan, warning it was prepared to respond to the annual joint military exercises shared by the United States and South Korea as practise runs in preparation for a potentially possible attack by North Korea on the South. All of the region has been made nervously expectant by the obvious militancy of Kim Jong Un, leading North Korea on a military and nuclear arms trajectory that traditional U.S. allies like South Korea, the Philippines, Japan and others view as threatening, along with that of Beijing, North Korea's 'big brother'.
 
There is also no secret about an alliance between Russia, North Korea, China and Iran. Much less the fact that Russia's war on Ukraine has been aided by the presence of North Korean troops. All four of those countries are anything but friends of the Democratic West. And while the U.S. military views Russia, North Korea and China as volatile military enemies, and is at war, directed by their president, with Iran, this tangled version of friends and allies versus military belligerents and adversaries of all that the West values is as puzzling as it is nonsensical.
 
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A museum in North Korea honors soldiers who have fought for Russia
 
 The U.S. president wrote on his Truth Social site that he had ordered the Pentagon to scale back "inappropriate and hostile" military drills with South Korea, mere hours prior to the drills taking place. The exercises, according to South Korean officials, proceeded as planned. South Korea officials, in fact, expressed the hope that the personal relationship Mr. Trump speaks of with the South's political nemesis could yield a resumption of talks, and with that, some forward movement in reconciliation between the two Koreas.
 
While U.S. allies in East Asia cringe over displays of weapons' technical capabilities forever moving forward and displayed with militant pride by Pyongyang, along with the hermit nation's growing alignment with Vladimir Putin's territorially aggressive agenda, not to mention North Korea's historical mentorship by China, the annual drills offered a notional reassurance of having the support of the United States should the situation of military threats continue to accelerate.
 
"I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, 'No thanks!'." That disinclination to become embroiled in a conflict outside their own internal interest zone appears to have sealed and delivered a verdict that Mr. Trump has applied elsewhere, when allies have failed to join America's spontaneous military decisions with no outreach before conflict has been launched with the heads of governments later expected to lend themselves to the American enterprise of war.
 
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U.S. army soldiers are seen during joint military exercises with South Korea in Yeoncheon, South Korea, in March 2025. (Ahn Young-joon/The Associated Press)
 
The normal 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises, designed to prepare the region for a potential war with North Korea, proceeded, though to "substantially reduced" impetus. That, reflecting the fact that when Mr. Trump decided he no longer wished the United States under his rule to continue with the drills, it was too late to cancel them, but Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was ordered to reduce them.
 
Seoul's presidential office assured the press that it remained in "close coordination" over the exercises with Washington, expressing the "hopes that the friendly relationship between the leaders of the United States and North Korea will lead to meaningful dialogue". That's called diplomacy. Or looking on the bright side of things as expressed by Monty Python, in a skit somewhat resembling his tongue-in-cheek, sardonic episodes of portraying human lunacy.
 
There are some 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea as a show of support for the country's defences since the 1950-53 armistice that ended the Korean War. Tellingly, American commitments to security in East Asia now appear fairly wobbly given U.S. President Trump's repeated criticism of what was once universally thought of as rock-solid alliances.
 
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South Korean soldiers watching a joint live-fire exercise with the U.S. Army in Pocheon, South Korea, last year.   SeongJoon Cho / Bloomberg via Getty Images file
 

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Friday, September 05, 2025

China Welcoming Friends Old and New

"This parade showcases the ascendancy of China propelled by Trump's inept diplomacy and President Xi's astute statecraft."
"The Washington consensus has unravelled, and Xi is rallying support for an alternative."
Jeff Kingston, professor of Asian studies, Temple University, Japan 
 
"Though the Russia-North Korea tie has resumed to a military alliance, China refuses to return to the year of 1950 [when Beijing sent soldiers to support North Korea's invasion of the South and the USSR provided critical military aid]."
"It is wrong to believe that China, Russia and North Korea are reinforcing bloc-building."
Zhu Feng, dean, School of International Relations, Nanjing University 
 
"I want to say that no one has been plotting anything, no one was weaving any conspiracies."
"None of the three leaders had even thought about such a thing."
Yuri Ushakov, Putin foreign affairs adviser
 
"Kim can also claim a diplomatic victory as North Korea has gone from unanimously sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council for its illegal nuclear and missile programs to being embraced by the UNSC permanent members Russia and China."
Leif-Eric Easley, professor of International Studies, Ewha Womans University, Seoul
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China put its military might on display Wednesday with a large parade. Also on display was China’s Xi Jinping flanked by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, a group of leaders united in a desire to challenge the dominance of the United States.  Still from video/CBC
 
Standing shoulder to shoulder, leaders of China, North Korea and Russia watched high-tech military hardware moving impressively along with thousands of soldiers marching the streets of Beijing in an massive show of strength and power. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with private confidence, smiling, clasping hands at a meeting several days before the military parade, at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
 
The meetings represented living proof of a message being sent to the United States of America and its allies through a shift from the U.S.-dominated world order led by the West with American President Donald Trump withdrawing from his nation's historic alliances, while imposing trade tariffs on friend and foe alike, shaking the world economy, puzzling allies and placing them on the defensive, looking elsewhere for validation of their right to aspire to economic and political stability, left adrift by the one guiding-light nation that has turned inward.
 
"Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Jun, as you conspire against The United States of America" was President Trump's message to his Chinese counterpart, while congratulating China on its celebration of emergence from the Second World War, free from Japanese occupation. A freedom from occupation not due to China's own defences, but owing to the offensive offered by the United States in humbling and defeating Japan through the persuasive power of its then-emerging nuclear capabilities.
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The latest drones, missiles and other weapons were on display during a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing on Wednesday. Chinese President Xi Jinping invited dozens of leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to his nation's largest-ever military parade. (Liu Xu/Xinhua/The Associated Press)
 
The 80th anniversary in Beijing commemorating the end of the Second World War was the annual showcasing of Beijing's dedication to its own burgeoning nuclear arsenals on land, in the air and at sea. China's assertiveness, its expansionist imperatives and economic/manufacturing/infrastructure/trade and foreign investment through its ambitious Belt and Road initiative signal it as the emerging counterpart of the powerful United States of America.
 
The leaders invited to share China's celebratory commemoration, from Russia to North Korea, India to Turkey, Iran and to Cuba, share one issue in common between them, isolation and sanctions from the United States and its Western bloc of allies. Beyond that shared connection is the fact that each of those nations is fully focused on their own aspirational futures, some in direct contradiction to China's. Even while isolation drives their friendship, it is a facade, since they all aspire to achieve their goals, while gravitating around China's lead.
 
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YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missiles are seen during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan and the end of World War II, in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on September 3, 2025.   Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images
 
China remains concerned with North Korea's nuclear power which has softened its support for Kim. Making common cause with Putin, both deeply isolated from the West, belies the reality that though both have signed a military pact strengthening their overt ties, they still and will always have territorial disagreements in a silent infiltration of Chinese in Russia's far east, scantly populated by Russians and increasingly taken possession of by Chinese settlers.
 
The free trade agreement that India and Washington were negotiating fell apart when Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff across the board as punishment for the Russian oil New Delhi has signed on to; with combined tariffs at 50 percent taking Modi aback at a time when relations with the U.S. were on rocky ground of late, forcing India to look elsewhere for support and for the time being, moving closer to China and Russia.  
"India is carefully walking this tightrope between the West and the rest, especially when it comes to the U.S., Russia and China."
"[Modi did not participate in Beijing's military parade since] distrust with China still exists."
"Because India does not believe in formal alliances, its approach has been to strengthen its relationship with the United States, maintain it with Russia, and manage it with China."
Praveen Donthi, senior analyst, International Crisis Group 
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Military personnel take part in a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan’s World War II surrender held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

 

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Monday, March 31, 2025

Ramping Up North Korea's Military Technology

"Keeping with the trend of modern warfare in which the competition for using intelligent drones as a major means of military power is being accelerated and the range of their use is steadily expanding in military activities [stressed by North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un]."
Korean Central News Agency report
 
"North Korea is realizing the need for not only nuclear weapons but also modernized capabilities in large-scale warfare, like AI and unmanned systems."
"There is a risk that these could become actual combat capabilities in a relatively short period of time."
Cha Du-hyeogn, former South Korean intelligence adviser
 
"North Korea is completely transforming itself by  upgrading its weapons systems for modern warfare based on its experiences in the war in Ukraine, and by copying military technologies from countries like China and Russia."
Yoo Yong-won, National Defence Committee, North Korea
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South Korean TV shows footage of what appears to be an airborne early warning and control aircraft. Getty Images

"Suicide attack drones" powered by artificial intelligence, is now the latest military technology championed by North Korea. Inspired no doubt by the success realized by the Ukrainian military in its existential struggle against North Korea's much-admired Vladimir Putin toward whose bloodthirsty territorial expansion he has dispatched tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers as disposable fodder in the conflict, ostensibly to gain experience in battle-hardened situations.
 
Pyongyang is determined to  update weapons capabilities in lock-step with the front-line experience its soldiers are gaining with modern warfare technologies in Ukraine. Core reconnaissance and attack drones are for the moment Kim Jong Un's preoccupation, believing that development of unmanned control and AI capability to be priorities for North Korea's military.
 
International observers such as North Korea analyst Cha Du-hyeogn at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul states that the hermit kingdom's ambitions should be taken seriously. North Korea has revealed its development of a "new-type strategic reconnaissance drone" capable of tracking and monitoring various targets and troop activity on land and at sea. Photos of Kim inspecting a large reconnaissance drone on a runway and of drones crashing into ground targets were released by State media.
 
According to experts who have viewed the photos, the large drone in the photograph is similar to the U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance aircraft, a type of drone that North Korea introduced in 2023 at a weapons exhibition in Pyongyang. Additionally, North Korea showcased for the first time an airborne early-warning and control aircraft. One which would enable North Korea to manage air and ground operations in real time, simultaneously.
 
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Left unannounced was what AI technology is used in its new suicide attack drones, much less when North Korea plans to ramp up production. However, according to Cha Du-hyeogn, it is questionable whether these suggested new capabilities could be mass-produced any time soon, in his opinion. Suicide attack drones are typically small and easy to manoeuvre, so they can be undetected and produced in large quantities.
 
Further, there is no evidence as yet that North Korea has mastered such technologies, much less incorporated AI technologies which can detect air defence systems, he said dismissively. Despite which in recent months North Korea has been emphasizing its reconnaissance drone technology, a key component of Kim's military modernization strategy, where he has been pushing the mass-production of suicide drones. 

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been pictured inspecting new suicide drones, which state media say have been equipped with artificial intelligence (AI).  KCNA

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Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Flirting Dangerously With Prospects of World War III

"Today, I can confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, and that North Korean military units have been deployed to the Kursk region."
"[The move represents] a significant escalation [in North Korea's involvement in the conflict and marks] a dangerous expansion of Russia's war."
"[NATO is] actively consulting within the alliance, with Ukraine, and with our Indo-Pacific partners [on developments]."
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte
 
"This is our sovereign decision."
"Whether we use it or not, where, how, or whether we engage in exercises, training, or transfer some experience. "
"It’s our business."
Russian President Vladimir Putin
 
"North Korean soldiers are deployed to support Russia’s war of aggression. It's a grave escalation in this war and a threat to global peace."
"[The EU would] respond together with our like-minded partners."
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen  

"[A] portion [of those soldiers had already moved closer to Ukraine."
"The US is increasingly concerned that Russia would use these soldiers] in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk oblast [region]."
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh
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The Ukrainian spy agency released video that it says was intercepted from Russian soldiers complaining about North Korean troops and the language barrier. Reuters

A high-level South Korean delegation, along with top intelligence and military officials as well as senior diplomats briefed NATO's 32 national ambassadors at NATO headquarters in Brussels on what is known at this time respecting the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia for training to take part in the Russian conflict against Ukraine.

Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister pointed out that Pyongyang and Moscow had signed a joint security pact in June. Although he was responding to the statement by NATO's Mark Rutte, he confined himself to that single remark, side-stepping any confirmation that North Korean soldiers were actually in Russia at this point. On the other hand, he pointed out, Western military instructors have been deployed covertly to Ukraine to train its military in the use of long-range weapons supplied to Ukraine by its Western partners.

NATO has confirmation that troops from North Korea have been dispatched to Russia to aid its war against Ukraine, elaborating with the additional confirmation received that some troops have already been deployed in the Kursk border region where significantly, the Russian military has been attempting to push back a Ukrainian incursion into Russia well beyond the border between the two that appears to be well dug in.

Thousands of North Korean soldiers -- an estimated total of 10,000 -- would represent a significant boon to Russia in Europe's largest conflict since the Second World War. In the process the situation will place greater pressure on Ukraine's overstretched military and underarmed, war-weary soldiers. On Monday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that about 650,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded. "They [Russians] are not collecting the bodies... their people are rotting on the ground." 
 
Geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the greater Indo-Pacific region including Japan and Australia are being stoked, according to Western officials. The more complex the situation becomes, the more heated the conflict and wider in its implications, drawing in sympathetic supporters on either side -- East and West -- the likelier it is that the embers of a greater and more widespread conflict can accelerate the flames of war; that World War III hovers on the horizon.
 
It is obvious that Vladimir Putin's end-game is the goal of reshaping of global power dynamics, seeking a counterbalance to Western influence during a summit of BRICS countries where the leaders of China and India visited Russia a week ago. Direct assistance for his war was sought from Iran, whose supply of drones has been most useful to the Kremlin, alongside North Korea's contribution of ammunition to Russia's war machinery.
  • NATO says N.Korean troops may be headed to front line
  • South Korea and Ukraine vow to step up cooperation
  • North Korea's foreign minister arrives in Russia for talks
  • Kremlin doesn't deny reports of N.Korean troops in Russia
"This war is becoming internationalized, extending beyond two countries."
"We agreed to strengthen intelligence and expertise exchange, intensify contacts at all levels, especially the highest, in order to develop an action strategy and countermeasures to address this escalation."                                                                                                             Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
A news broadcast in Seoul on 18 October 2024 showing a satellite image of Russia's Ussuriysk military facility, where intelligence agencies said North Korean personnel were gathered within the training ground.
A news broadcast in Seoul showing a satellite image of Russia's Ussuriysk military facility, where intelligence agencies said North Korean personnel were gathered within the training ground. Photograph: Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock
 

 

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Tuesday, April 18, 2023

"Extreme Uneasiness and Horror"

 

"[The test launch of the Hwasong 18 intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday would make enemies] experience a clearer security crisis,and constantly strike extreme uneasiness and horror into them by taking fatal and offensive counteractions until they abandon their senseless thinking and reckless acts."
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un 

"[The development of the Hwasong-18 will] extensively reform the strategic deterrence components of the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, radically promote the effectiveness of its nuclear counterattack posture and bring about a change in the practicality of its offensive military strategy."
North Korean state media outlet KCNA
 
“At an earlier stage of North Korea’s missile program, liquid-fuel ICBMs represented the quickest and easiest path to achieving the country’s historic goal of being able to threaten the continental United States."
“The addition of solid-fuel ICBMs to the missile force would make it a more credible strategic deterrent by providing a more capable, less vulnerable pre-emptive and retaliatory capability."
Joseph Dempsey, research associate, International Institute for Strategic Studies
North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 Intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday, according to state media KCNA.
North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 Intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday, according to state media KCNA. Courtesy Rodong Sinmun

Both North Korea and China enjoy making extravagantly pompous statements referring to themselves and the place they hold in the world. they both share a sense of awe of their pre-eminence that exists mostly in their collective mindset, and seem to believe their every utterance inspires fear and loathing in the minds of their presumed detractors against whom they struggle to contain malign intentions to do them great harm, while they are themselves the paranoiac threat-masters of global violence. They ascribe to their presumed enemies all the threatening qualities that are their own.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un -- impressed with his own belief in his superior intelligence and profound leadership of an impoverished nation grappling constantly with food insecurity, yet heavily investing in advanced technologies meant for no purpose other than to initially intimidate and threaten and eventually to deploy in a bid to destroy the potential for those it identifies as awaiting an opportunity to destroy the Hermit Kingdom, proposing by its actions to act before they do -- presents as an amateur yet sinister director of a very bad film.

Several days ago North Korea officially announced its testing of a new solid-fuel ICBM, meant to "radically promote" the preparation of its forces for an eventual denouement of the forces that threaten its own. Experts interpret the latest provocations from North Korea as a new type of weaponry meant to facilitate missile launches with scant warning. This represents the North's first use of solid propellants in an intermediate-range ICBM. Bringing North Korea into a very specialized field of deploying missiles faster during an actual conflict.
 
A woman watches street TV broadcasting breaking news of a North Korean missile launch in Tokyo on April 13, 2023. Photo by...
 
The weapon remains in the development stage according to its defence ministry, with more time and effort required to perfect the advanced technology, warning that more tests are on the way. The country's state media released photographs of its leader witnessing the launch in the company of his sister, wife and daughter. This, in response yet again -- and predictably -- to joint exercises carried out by South Korea and the United States air forces, drills that were staged with U.S. B-52H bombers joined by F-34A, F-14 and F-15 fighter jets.

Recent U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises certainly exacerbate the situation, sending Kim into paroxysms of paranoia and leading to a series of missile tests in a sabre-rattling contest that no one would win. Japan, threatened by the North's constant barrages that enter Japan's zone of air defence, conducted separate air drills with U.S. B-52 bomber jets on Friday, with four U.S. F-35 fighters and four Japanese F-15 fighters. These are not 'games' but tense back-and-forth feeler-threats.

North Korea's largest ballistic missiles use liquid fuel, requiring loading with propellant at the launch site, time-consuming and dangerous. A former U.S. government weapons expert, Vann Van Diepen, explained that solid-fuel missiles are easier and safer to operate, requiring less logistical support, and making them harder to detect and more survivable than liquid fuel missiles. Analysts feel however, that the U.S. could distinguish between solid' or liquid-fuelled launches with early warning satellites capable of detecting differences in infrared data various missile types produce.
"For any country that operates large-scale, missile-based nuclear forces, solid-propelled missiles are an incredibly desirable capability because they don't need to be fuelled immediately prior to use."
"These capabilities are much more responsive in a time of crisis."
“I think it demonstrates technological progress, but I would not describe this as a game changer.”  
“Based on their competency with materials and engineering that we’ve seen in other areas, developing a robust enough reentry vehicle is not a substantial technical challenge,”
Ankit Panda, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

"North Korea could have opted to focus on collecting data necessary to check its features at different stages than going full speed at the first launch."
"As it was a test that did not demonstrate its normal flight pattern, North Korea will likely conduct some more tests."
Kim Dong-yup, professor, University of North Korean Studies
North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday.
North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday   Courtesy Rodong Sinmun


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Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Trouble Brewing in East Asia

"The more preparations we make, the less likely there will be rash attempts of aggression."
"The more united we are, the stronger and safer Taiwan would become."
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-won

"We [United States] will continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self defence capability in line with our long-standing commitments and consistent with our one China policy."
White House National Security Council
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, aircraft of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) conduct a joint combat training exercises around the Taiwan Island on Sunday, Aug. 7, 2022. 
PIC:Xinhua /AP
Aircraft of the Eastern Theater Command during a prior drill near Taiwan in August. Pic: Xinhua /AP

The entire region of East Asia shows indication of an uneasy peace slowly unravelling. North Korea sent drones  across its heavily fortified border with South Korea, with the South responding by scrambling fighter jets, flying surveillance and firing warning shots in deterrence. For the first time in five years a fresh escalation of tensions has erupted of an intensity that strikes concern, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

Attack helicopters were dispatched along with fighter jets to shoot down the drones. Several days earlier two short-range ballistic missiles were fired at the South. This is North Korea's method of protesting its displeasure at joint air drills carried out betwen South Korea and the United States; a rehearsal for an invasion, interpreted by North Korea. "Our military will thoroughly and resolutely respond to this kind of North Korea provation", director of operations Major General Lee Seung-o of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff stated emphatically.

"[U.S. officials are] consulting closely with the [Republic of Korea] about the nature of this incursion. We recoggnize the need of the ROK to protect its territorial integrity", noted an unnamed White House National Security official. Taiwan, South Korea nervous of the intentions of China and North Korea. Joining them is Japan, edgily watching what is happening in its neighbourhood and fearing that it too is in North Korea's and China's crosshairs.

Tokyo is considering the possibility of a nuclear attack to match the growing fears of a potentially full-on conflict with either North Korea or China. Japan, the only nation on Earth that has ever suffered a nuclear attack, saw its cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki both devastated in the wake of the Second World War when nuclear devices were unleashed on an unsuspecting, still war-defiant nation. Suddenly a soaring business has taken off of nuclear shelter sales in Japan.

In Taiwan, in a 24-hour-period, 71 Chinese military aircraft. among them fighter jets and drones, entered Taiwan's air defence zone, to date the largest reported incursion. The Taiwan Straits saw 43 aircraft cross the median line, the unofficial buffer separating the two sides. Throughout the steady increase of aggressive intimidation that Beijing tqrgets Taipei with, this is yet the most emphatic. According to Beijing these were 'strike drills'.

Beijing was merely responding to 'provocations' from Taiwan and the United States. The latter intervening in territory not its own, the former spurning Beijing's wish for reunifiction, to take independent sovereign Taiwan back under its wing. The drills saw the Chinese air force dispatch warplanes from several locales across the country for simulated attacks on Taiwanese and U.S. warships. 

The situation has compelled Taiwan to change the service tenure of its compulsory military service from the current four months to a year, to deal with rising tensions linked to Beijing's military pressure. Taiwan's southern air defence identification zone saw Chinese electronic-warfare and antisubmarine aircraft incursions along with drones. Repeated missions by the Chinese air force of the last two years has given Taipei reason for vigilance. In response to the latest incursion, Taiwan sent combat aircraft to warn off the Chinese planes, with missile systems monitoring their flight.

Image

 

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Saturday, November 05, 2022

North Korea, Past Master At Provocation

"North Korea's provocation today was an effective act of territorial encroachment by a missile intruding the NLL for the first time since [the two Koreas'] division."
"[There will be a] swift and firm response."
"[Such] "military rashness and provocation can be no longer tolerated."
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's office

"We heard the siren at around 8:55 a.m. and all of us in the building went down to the evacuation place in the basement."
"We stayed there until we came upstairs at around 9:15 after hearing that the projectile fell into the high seas."
Ulleung county official
People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with live footage of the South Korean island of Ulleungdo, at a railway station in Seoul, on Wednesday. (Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images)

Residents of a South Korean island evacuated to underground shelters as sirens blared on Wednesday when North Korea fired over twenty missiles, at least one in their direction, landing near the sea border between North and South Korea. The response by the South was swift, seeing it launch its own missiles in the same border area, hours after North Korea made threats of its intention to use nuclear weapons to deliver to the United States and South Korea a promise they would "pay the most horrible price in history".
 
The North's idea of a subtle hint that it is displeased with the two nations' ongoing military drills it considers a rehearsal for an invasion by both the South and he U.S., of North Korea. The barrage of missile tests arrived at the very time South Korea was in mourning after a Halloween tragedy that took place on the weekend where over 150 people were killed, mostly by asphyxiation, in a surging crowd event in Seoul.
 
The South Korean military counted at least 23 missiles launched by the North -- 17 on Wednesday morning, and an additional six that same afternoon, off the South's eastern and western coasts. The weapons were identified as short range ballistic missiles -- alternately, surface-to-air missiles. Roughly a hundred artillery shells were fired on Wednesday as well by North Korea into an eastern maritime buffer zone set up in 2018 to reduce tensions.
 
map
One ballistic missile flew toward South Korea's Ulleung Island before finally landing 157 kilometres northwest of the island. According to the South's Joint chiefs of Staff, an air raid alert was issued on the island leading residents of the island to move for safety to underground shelters. The air raid alert was lifted hours later, while the transport ministry closed air routes above the country's east for the day.
 
One missile landed in international waters off the east coast of South Korea, the first time a North Korean missile landed close to the sea border since the North and South split in 1948, "This is very unprecedented and we will never tolerate it!", the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated. The use of ballistic missile launches or tests are banned by a number of UN Security Council resolutions.
 
South Korean fighter jets later that same day launched three air-to-surface, precision-guided missiles close to the eastern sea border as an indication of its determination to be tough on North Korean provocations. The missiles landed in international waters in the same direction at a distance of 26 kilometres north of the sea border as did the North Korean missile earlier on Wednesday.
 
North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un oversees a missile launch at an undisclosed location in North Korea, in this undated photo released on Oct. 10 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). (Korean Central News Agency/Reuters)

 
 

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Friday, April 08, 2022

Mutual Koreas Sabre-Rattling

Mutual Koreas Sabre-Rattling

Kim Yo-jong
Kim Yo-jong issued warnings to S.Korea  Getty
"[Pyongyang would destroy major targets in Seoul should South Korea take any] dangerous military action [such as a pre-emptive strike]."
"Pyongyang opposes war], But if South Korea, for any reason -- whether or not it is blinded by misjudgement -- opts for such military actions as 'pre-emptive strike' touted by [Suh Wook], the situation will change."
"In that case, South Korea itself will become a target."
"In case South Korea opts for military confrontation with us, our nuclear combat force will have to inevitably carry out its duty."
Kim Yo-jong, senior official in North Korea's government 

"Yoon's 'pre-emptive strike' comment made the headlines a few months ago, and Pyongyang is seizing Suh's remarks to make a point to the incoming South Korean administration."
"North Korea has thus far refrained from criticizing Yoon at any authoritative level, but it certainly seems to be laying the groundwork for it."
Rachel Min-young Lee, analyst, 38 North project, United States
On Friday, South Korean Defence Minister Suh Wook had stated that his country's military possessed a variety of missiles whose range had been significantly updated, with greater accuracy and power and "the ability to accurately and quickly hit any target in North Korea". A surprisingly candid and extremely provocative statement, not one to be casually remarked upon with the expectation that there would be no response amounting to a none-too-casual threat from North Korea.
 
(Credit: Getty Images)
Ms Kim is often believed to be the “number two” of the North Korean leadership.  Getty Images
 
That response came courtesy of the sister of North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un who possesses a good degree of authority within the regime of the irascible leader. Analysts read Ms.Kim's response as a veiled message whose recipient-target would most likely be the incoming conservative president of South Korea. Displays of military strength on the part of both Koreas have increased following the test-firing by North Korea of a range of increasingly powerful missiles in 2022 alone.

Incoming South Korean president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has called for a more muscular defence against threats issued by North Korea. In return the statements issued by Kim may indicate that Pyongyang is in the process of preparing the country's population for a planned shift in direction of inter-Korean relations, with the near prospect of Yoon taking office in May.

Meeting with American officials in Washington this week, a delegation from Yoon's team was welcomed, with American officials reiterating assurance of the U.S. commitment to the defence of South Korea, outlined in a statement by the U.S. State Department. How reassuring that might be to South Korea with Beijing comfortably taking authority in the area and North Korea being seen as a protege of Beijing, is anyone's guess. 
 
All the more so as Washington's pledges to its allies have not quite matched its actions of late.

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of a North Korean missile test, at a railway station in Seoul on March 16, 2022
North Korea claimed it had fired multiple missiles in March, which the US said was a test for parts of an ICBM system   Getty Images

 

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Sunday, January 30, 2022

United Nations as a Lunatic Asylum


North Korea, heavily sanctioned for illicit nukes, to lead UN disarmament forum
Image: Rodong Sinmun  | Kim Jong Un at a missile test
"Nuclear pariah North Korea is set to chair a United Nations forum on nuclear disarmament for four weeks from late May, the U.N. has announced, leading one Geneva-based advocacy group to encourage a diplomatic boycott of the event."
"The U.N. Conference on Disarmament will include discussions on nuclear weapons, preventing nuclear war and transparency in armament to support 'effective international arrangements to assure non-nuclear-weapon States against the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons', according to the U.N. website."
NK News
 
"It’s only a coordination role and largely a symbolic post – but still, it’s bad optics nevertheless,"
"North Korea is the worst example of not abiding by the nonproliferation regime. And that country assuming the lead of the relevant meeting demonstrates how ineffectual global governance can be."
Shin Beom-chul, director, Center for Diplomacy and Security, Korea Research Institute for National Strategy
 
"While the U.N. will likely defend North Korea’s appointment as simply an automatic rotation, no system should tolerate such a fundamental conflict of interests."
"It’s common sense that a disarmament body should not be headed by the world’s arch-villain on illegal weapons and nuclear proliferation, notorious for exporting missiles and nuclear know-how to fellow rogue regimes around the globe."
"'All of the delegations who took the floor', reported the UN’s summary, welcomed the North Korean’s presidency, and said that 'they looked forward to his [North Korea’s So Se Pyong] stewardship' and to working with him 'to revitalize and strengthen the Conference'. Those listed as having taken the floor were Canada, the UK, India, China, Nigeria, Portugal, Iran, Myanmar, Algeria, and UN official Jarmo Sareva."
Hillel Neuer, Executive Director, UN Watch
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits a munitions factory producing what state media KCNA called a ‘major weapon system’.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits a munitions factory producing what state media KCNA called a ‘major weapon system’. Photograph: KCNA/Reuters

 North Korea's dear leader Kim Jong UN visited a munitions factory that produces a "major weapon system", according to state media on Friday. At the same time, North Korea conducted tests of an upgraded long-range cruise missile, along with a warhead of a tactical guided missile. In obvious preparation for taking on the prestigious position heading a United Nations Conference on Disarmament. So that the North Korean representative can speak with confidence on nuclear proliferation and other such global distractions.

In an absolute frenzy of activity Tuesday saw the test of an updated long-range cruise missile system. Oh, and yet another test held in confirmation of the power of a conventional warhead for a surface-to-surface tactical guided missile on Thursday. All diligently and dutifully and with an appropriate air of pride, recorded on the state media organ. No doubt confirming dispatches were sent out from North Korea to its interested friends and colleagues in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
 
North Korea confirms latest tests of long-range cruise, tactical guided missiles
Anadolu Agency
 
The munitions factory was lauded by President Kim in its grand progress achievement in "producing major weapons" and holding a "very important position and duty" in modernizing the country's armed forces. The result of which cannot be denied and sufficiently praised, in realizing its national defence development strategy.

A day earlier South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff announced their having detected the apparent launch of two short-range ballistic missiles. A revelation that saw the United States condemn the North for carrying out what is undeniably the sixth round of missile tests in this first month of the new year of 2022. Setting the tone for what lies ahead for North Korea's strategic weapons exploits.

The Joint chiefs of Staff of South Korea reported as well on the diligent actions of its rogue neighbour in drawing attention and concern from all of its near neighbours with the exception of its proud guardian China as a fledgling and most effective bulwark against the incursion of sordid Western notions of stability, security and peace through diplomatic negotiations, when it fired off another two cruise missiles into the sea off its east coast on Tuesday.

This composite photo, released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows a long-range cruise missile being test-fired on Jan. 25, 2022. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
Composite photo, released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows a long-range cruise missile being test-fired on Jan. 25, 2022

 

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Saturday, January 15, 2022

The Diplomatic Battlefield

"What we have seen in recent days ... only underscores our belief that if we are going to make progress, that we will need to engage in that dialogue [to attempt once again to conduct a nation-to-nation conversation with North Korea]."
Ned Price, spokesman, U.S.State Department

"[North Korea's latest launches were] further evidence that it continues to advance prohibited programs despite the international community's calls for diplomacy and de-nuclearization."
"[The State Department designated sanctions on North Korean individuals and Russian entities for] activities or transactions that have materially contributed to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction or their means of delivery."
U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson
Kim Jong-un speaks to officials at the Defence Development Exhibition, in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this undated photo released on October 12, 2021, photo by KCNA via Reuters

Kim Jong-un speaks to officials at the Defence Development Exhibition, in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this undated photo released on October 12, 2021   Photo by KCNA via Reuters

"Pyongyang's goading seems to have struck a chord among some officials in Seoul. Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong in his pull-aside talks October 5 with Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the need for an end-of-war declaration as a “confidence-building measure” to engage the Kim regime. Chung on a separate occasion said that the time is ripe to consider easing sanctions on North Korea for the sake of engagement—despite the regime's ongoing nuclear development and missile testing. In a similar vein, Seoul's Unification Minister Lee In-young vowed to push for inter-Korean talks before the end of this year."
Soo Kim, policy analyst, RAND Corporation, adjunct instructor, American University. October 14, 2021
North Korea accuses Biden of 'provocation' and warns of 'consequences' |  The Japan Times
Japan Times   North Korea accuses Biden of 'provocation' and warns of 'consequences'

Sanctions were imposed on Wednesday by the United States on six North Koreans, a Russian and a Russian company said to be responsible for obtaining materiel from Russia and China to enable it to build its weapons programs. The sanctions come on the heels of a series of missile launches by North Korea; two alone in the past week.
 
The sanctions, according to the U.S. Treasury, are meant to prevent further advancement of North Korea's weapons programs, and to impede its efforts in proliferating weapons technologies. These sanctions represent the first imposed by the Biden administration to target North Korea's weapons programs. The administration has been unsuccessful in seeking engagement with Pyongyang meant to sway it away from producing nuclear bombs and missiles.

The administration remains firm in its intention to engage in diplomacy with the hermit kingdom. Six ballistic missiles were launched by North Korea's military since September, egregious violations of UN Security Council resolutions. Despite which, two key members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China, act in concert to protect China's protegee from UN-sponsored sanctions.

Choe Myong Hyon was singled out for sanctions for having worked to procure telecommunications-related equipment from Russia. She is based in Vladivostok as a representative of North Korea's Second Academy of Natural Sciences. Four North Korean representatives based in China of SANS-subordinate organizations were also hit by sanctions.

As has Sim Kwang Sok been, based in Dalian, working to procure steel alloys, as well as Kim Song Hun, based in Shenyang, accessing software and chemicals. As loyal North Koreans, based in friendly nations from whom materials critical to Pyongyang's plans for future technological development in nuclear and missile updates they pay the penalty for enablement when the true enablers go unpunished, seated on their UN thrones.

N Korea confirms test of 'new type' submarine-launched missile | Weapons  News | Al Jazeera
State media say the test, the eighth this year, was ‘successful’ as US urges Pyongyang to refrain from ‘provocations’.

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Thursday, January 06, 2022

"Kim Jong Un, you son of a b----. The people are starving to death because of you"

"To have a message such as this appear on a wall in Pyongyang will have been a shock to the authorities and to ordinary people."
Toshimitsu Shigemura, professor, Waseda University, Tokyo
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un
North Korean Leader, Kim Jong Un, Reuters
 
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that North Korea is short 860,000 tonnes of food for the year, equivalent to approximately 2.3 months of basic foodstuffs. North Koreans report shortages of cooking oil as well. Prices for the limited supply available have risen fourfold, according to Radio Free Asia.

By law, any criticism of the ruling Kim family or of the political party that represents their dictatorship is strictly forbidden. People can be held on charges of sedition or crimes against the state if they are suspected of finding fault with the regime. The punishment is a lengthy period in one of the country's notorious prison camps for political prisoners. Should a case prove to be considered 'extreme', fitting punishment can be a death sentence.

All this results in any manner of graffiti that expresses an anti-Kim sentiment being exceedingly rare. And on the most rare of occasions instances of slogans appearing that attack the North Korean leadership may appear in remote areas of the country. In the capital Pyongyang, however, any such defiant messages are hugely unusual. Only the nation's elite are given permission to live there.

Yet the message "Kim Jong Un, you son of a b----. The people are starving to death because of you", was found written on the wall of an apartment building in the wealthy (by North Korean standards) Pyongchon district, according to the South Korean Daily NK news site. This occurred on December 22, when the ruling Workers' Party of Korea was in session.

Local leaders responded with alacrity, cordoning off the area, and the message was soon erased. But the damage was done, since there were people who had seen it and reported it to Daily NK. The Seoul-based media outlet is operated by dissidents who depend on their compatriots in North Korea to smuggle news to them; a network of undercover 'citizen reporters' located in North Korea and China.

An insider source revealed that North Korean officials are going door to door demanding handwriting samples from thousands of residents of Pyongyang in an effort to find the person responsible for the insulting graffiti targeting supreme leader Kim Jong Un. People in apartment blocks and businesses were forced to give interlocutors samples of their handwriting.

Locals were questioned on their movements on the day in question. The thousands of cameras installed throughout the city since 2011 when Kim Jong Un came to power are being inspected. The border closures linked to the pandemic and severe flooding in recent years have resulted in the impoverished country facing a serious food crisis. But this has not stopped Kim from funding ballistic rocket development and nuclear devices.

In March of 2018, a colonel in the North Korean military was found guilty of writing slogans on the April 24 House of Culture in central Pyongyang, and was publicly executed. It has been pointed out that even the wealthiest North Koreans living in the capital are increasingly experiencing food shortages.
Kim has acknowledged a 'tense' food situation that could worsen if all of the crops fail, exacerbating economic problems amid strict self-imposed border and movement restrictions that have slowed trade to a trickle. Pictured: File image of men plowing a field in North Korea in July 2017
Kim has acknowledged a 'tense' food situation that could worsen if all of the crops fail, exacerbating economic problems amid strict self-imposed border and movement restrictions that have slowed trade to a trickle. Pictured: File image of men plowing a field in North Korea in July 2017

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