generalspeaking

Defying Illness and Death for Life-as-Usual

"What we see is that in many states, you see an increase in influenza-like illnesses, and then a week or two later, you see an increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza."
"It provides some confirmation that what we are seeing is related to coronavirus."
"We decided to look at all deaths from pneumonia, or all deaths overall, and see how those numbers were changing,"
Dan Weinberger, epidemiology of infectious diseases, Yale University

Protesters demonstrate against safer-at-home orders at the Colorado Capital in Denver on Sunday. Some counties there have implemented stricter measures than the state, which had announced an easing for some businesses starting Monday. (Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images)

"In New York City, this discrepancy [between numbers forecasted and numbers realized] was even more stark, with three to four times as many excess all-cause deaths as pneumonia and influenza deaths."
"For instance, California had 101 reported deaths due to COVID-19 and 399 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths."
"Many states experienced a notable increase in the proportion of total deaths due to P&I (pneumonia and influenza) starting in mid-March through March 28 compared to what would be expected based on the time of year and influenza activity."
"In some states, such as Florida and Georgia, the increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza preceded the widespread adoption of testing for the novel coronavirus by several weeks."  

"Given the lack of adequate testing and geographical variability in testing intensity, this type of monitoring provides key information on the severity of the epidemic in different geographic regions."

"It also provides some indication of the degree to which viral testing is missing deaths associated with COVID-19 directly or indirectly."Research report, published in MedRxiv

The United States has been hit by one of the globe's worst epidemics of novel coronavirus. The death toll is approaching 58,000, increasing at a steadily rapid rate. Despite this, a growing number of state governors appear to be defying reality, in lock-step with the president anxious to see a return to normal life, in particular that business as usual would resume. The economy has been put to a standstill. From a situation of full employment and more jobs than people to fill them, suddenly mass unemployment has struck the country. On Saturday alone, there was an additional 2,404 coronavirus deaths reported.

Yet, a belief born of desperation appears to be informing decision makers, that the worst of the outbreak could have passed, matching pressure from the corporate community that the devastated U.S. economy must see some relief from the imposition of lockdown. Across the country anger and frustration have seen protests erupt, with citizens decrying the unneeded security steps, that their liberties have been abridged, that the American way of life has been upended for no good and reasonable purpose.

As evidence of that looming distrust in government action in response to the advice from their top expert medical advisers, Americans are demonstrating their penchant for ignoring stay-at-home orders in a demonstration of quarantine fatigue. A team led by the University of Maryland, with the use of mobile-phone data, discovered that Americans have been leaving the confines of self-isolation in increasing numbers.

Operating manager Barry Lennon cleans up the table of customer Duke Scott in the empty dining room of the J. Christopher's restaurant on Monday in Brookhaven, Ga. As of Monday, restaurants around Georgia are allowed to offer dine-in service. (Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)

In California, thousands of people have gone to the beaches amid soaring temperatures on the weekend, choosing to entirely ignore the state governor's orders. Demonstrations have been reported in Springfield, Ill and Baton Rouge, La. Demonstrations in Michigan, where one of the worst breakouts has occurred in Chicago, have been supported by conservative groups. In response the governor agreed to ease some of the imposed curbs allowing some businesses to reopen.

In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp is allowing hairdressers, nail salons and tattoo parlours to re-open their premises; hardly the essence of 'essential' services for a population in lockdown against a dread disease. There have been guidelines issued that clients and staff wear masks and customers be asked questions of their health conditions; with no way to monitor compliance. A raft of businesses will be permitted to operate over the coming week in around 20 states.

According to the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Tom Inglesby, he believes the country is "at the end of the beginning" of the crisis. As for President Trump, he has stated that his daily White House briefings are to be scrapped, "not worth the time and effort".

Some health experts and local politicians are concerned that restrictions put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19 are being lifted too soon in some U.S. states such as Georgia.