People wear face masks as they walk along a street prior to a curfew in
Montreal, Saturday, January 9, 2021, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues
in Canada and around the world. The Quebec government has imposed a
curfew to help stop the spread of COVID-19 starting at 8 p.m until 5
a.m. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes
"I'm
not sure that's going to be feasible [people in Quebec emulating
Italians during the springtime COVID quarantine, singing from balconies]
during the cold winter nights in Quebec."
"[Placing
people under curfew so they're unable to leave their homes lacking an
acceptable reason fails to create a sense of solidarity, the] all in
this together [spirit]."
"OK, we've just got to get through this four weeks, assuming the lockdown is not extended [people tend to think]."
"The
rationale is that when people disregard social distancing, they do it
at night. So, you lock everyone down. Of course, you're still putting
people in closed spaces It just happens to be their own homes."
"This thing has lasted so long. People were expecting and hoping in 2021 things would open up."
"If
we're going to have a curfew there needs to be in place, and visibly in
place, mental health resources to help people get through this period."
"Most
people will be resilient. We're not going to like it. We're gonna feel
stressed out and irritable and perhaps depressed, but most people will
bounce back."
Steven Taylor, Clinical Psychologist, professor, Department of Psychiatry, University of British Columbia
CTV News
Quebecers
may feel they see a glimmer of light at the end of this latest tunnel
with yet another door slammed against their freedom of movement when
Quebec Premier Francois Legault announced "We're talking here about saving lives and we're talking about saving our health-care system",
as he announced new emergency measures to take effect in Quebec from
Saturday, 9th of January, among them a 8:00 pm to 5:00 am curfew. A
curfew meant to be strictly enforced; only those with acceptable reasons
to be out will be spared fines of up to $6,000.
This
news for Quebecers represents the first in the country to impose a
curfew, but Quebec, after all, has experienced the most deaths due to
COVID within its population of any other province or territory. True, 80
percent of those deaths have taken place within long-term care
residences, and the curfew obviously doesn't impact on them, so it isn't
surprising a bit of consternation may arise from the situation of
locking everyone down at night. And according to mental health experts,
the newly imposed curfew represents another stress level upon people
already suffering the effects of ongoing lockdowns.
The rationale for the curfew appears to elude the mental health experts. COVID-19
saturating the province is the driving force behind such moves of
desperation, when governments don't know what else they can do to
convince their populations to take the ongoing and growing prevalence of
infections seriously enough to deter them from breaking the health
rules meant to protect the greater population. Residents will still be
permitted outside excursions for emergencies and "humanitarian reasons",
including walking the family dog, picking up teenagers from work, or
filling prescriptions at a pharmacy.
Those
people whose employment leads to working shifts will be excepted but in
general everyone is expected to remain in their homes in the evening,
and to commit to staying there until the morning light. Any who venture
out lacking a sanctioned (or valid) reason to be out and about
during the curfew hours risk hefty fines of between $1,000 and $6,000.
Desperate means, the government insists are a requirement if they are to
hope to be able to stop the minority of people who insist on ignoring COVID rules.
Civil liberty concerns are becoming visible: "What's crucial is how the curfew is enforced",
stated Michael Bryant, executive director of the Canadian Civil
Liberties Association. To the present, Quebec's enforcement during COVID
lockdowns has tended to be on the "overzealous" side,
disproportionately impacting racialized communities and the homeless in
an atmosphere prevailing where residents are encouraged to carry proof
they have a valid reason to explain their outside presence at night.
Urgences-santé paramedics transport a patient to the COVID-19 unit of Notre-Dame Hospital on Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020.Photo by Allen McInnis /Montreal Gazette
Ar
the very least, 8.6 million Quebecers can anticipate the curfew
expiration of February 8. As far as some are concerned in the face of a
clear public health priority all else is superseded in importance, that
the psychological harms of distancing and curfews are less important
than the potential physical harms visited by the virus. "Given the rapid spread of the virus, distancing may turn out to be more important in saving lives than vaccines", according to professor emeritus Dr.Allan Frances at Duke University.
Dr.Thombs,
who as a senior investigator at the Lady David Institute of Medical
Research at the Jewish General Hospital, is leading a review of how COVID
and pandemic policies affect the human psyche feels the restrictions
are already impacting people in various ways. Studies indicate that
young adults are deeply affected where social interactions with others
are being aborted leading to loneliness. This, in the face of confirmed
cases accelerating as never before with Canada seeing an increase of
100,000 cases in just over two weeks.
There
is a lack of compelling data proving that curfews work. Setting up
controlled studies is difficult, explained Dr.Taylor, author of The Psychology of Pandemics: Preparing for the Next Global Outbreak of Infectious Disease.
The effort of balancing the containment of infection as opposed to
concern over people's mental well being is top of the agenda. A rise in
anxiety, depression, substance abuse and domestic violence has already
been recognized, and additional instances of all those stressors will be
emphasized in Quebec under its enhanced lockdown.
The
more curfews you introduce people to and the longer they remain in
force, the more oppressive and stressful the situation is for everyone
involved, since humans are gregarious social animals, and estranging us
from all social interactions that have meaning in our lives and create
enjoyment impacts moods and with bleak moods comes irrationality.
"Whenever you do these kinds of things,
you want to pick your battles, pick your target, help people understand
what you're trying to accomplish and lay out what that is."
"It's not clear to me at least what shutting down at eight o'clock is going to do."
"We
always cope with stressors when they're shorter than longer, and when
we have as much information as possible about what's going to be
involved. What happens after 8? There is a real risk that it will make
things more difficult for busy people who can't get their errands done,
such as those working and caring for young children."
"Normal
development really relies on socialization at that point in their lives
[young people]. Other people are being hammered financially and don't
know if they can support their families."
"...It
does seem like people are really slipping and aren't being
particularly cognizant about following [public health] principles."
"I
don't know that shocking people without a clear purpose of what the
shock is trying to stop works. What are they targeting here? What are
the main sources of transmission? What are they trying to cut down.?"
Brett Thombs, professor, faculty of medicine, McGill University
"As I speak to you tonight, our hospitals are under more pressure from COVID than any time since the start of the pandemic."
"With most of the country already under extreme measures, it's clear that we need to do more together to bring this new variant under control."
"We must therefore go into a national lockdown, which is tough enough to contain this variant. That means the government is once again instructing you to stay at home."
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
Prime Minister Boris Johnson looking on as a dose of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine was administered on Monday. Credit...Pool photo by Stefan Rousseau
None but essential businesses once again to remain shuttered. Primary and secondary schools closed from Tuesday forward for all pupils with few exceptions. The school year at every level interrupted with no expectations there can be completion this year; no exams, no passage to the next year's courses unless special dispensation and a more crowded curriculum can be arranged for the near future. But that is all in the future, when and if the pandemic is placed under firm control.
Should vaccine rollout proceed as anticipated everything will begin to coalesce into normalcy, slowly but steadily. Should the death numbers respond to the lockdown measures the possibility is that the country could move steadily out of lockdown, perhaps by mid-February in a best-case scenario. Caution for the present is imperative, urged the Prime Minister of his countrymen. In fact, the country faces what could be presented as a wartime situation when sacrifices must be made, and continue to be made to advance to salvation from a galloping disease decimating the population.
The new measures permitting companies like construction firms to remain at work may cost a depressed ten percent of economic output according to a fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs. The British economy underwent a historic crash of close to 20 percent in the April-to-June period of 2020 as business was shuttered in the first lockdown in the first wave of the pandemic. Britain has been hit with the world's sixth-highest death toll with cases reaching new heights according to the nation's chief medical officer.
The health system risks being overwhelmed with the pace of the current spread of COVID within 21 days, should the contagion continue at the same rate. Even as Britain became the first country to begin inoculating its population with the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, the surge in cases is being driven by the new variant of COVID-19, surprising even the experts in the warp speed with which it has spread and sickened people. Vaccination remains the glowing hope for the near future and beyond.
All of which has been vastly complicated by the new more contagious mutant variant of the coronavirus attributed to and named the U.K. variant, being joined by a more threatening variant from South Africa. What began in the United Kingdom and South Africa has not, like the original SARS-CoV-2 virus emerging in Wuhan China, been confined to its origins. It has dispatched itself with unwelcome speed in other countries, soon to discover that infiltration within their borders that no virus has ever respected.
Over 75,000 people have died from COVID-19 causes in the United Kingdom, 28 days at most from testing positive for the virus since the beginning of the pandemic. On Monday alone, a record 58,784 new cases of the coronavirus was reported.
Police officers wear face masks as they patrol an anti-lockdown
demonstration in Parliament Square, in London, Monday, Dec. 14, 2020.
Britain launched its vaccination program this month after becoming the
first country to give emergency approval to the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine,
and authorities plan to dispense 800,000 doses in the first phase. (AP
Photo/Alberto Pezzali)
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist TT News Agency/AFP
"We are thinking of fairly short restrictions. To break the spread of infection requires perhaps two to three weeks at most."
"We are still developing the concept, so to say, but something like that."
"The restrictions could be extremely local. It could be about a single workplace or city district; wherever you see a spread and think that there are restrictions that might stop it."
"We have seen in Sweden that this has a tendency to hit socially vulnerable areas. That's why I was a bit doubtful about limiting people's movement, because you need to find restrictions which will be accepted by the group you are working with and which work in more ways than just infection control."
"But I think this will be easier if we are extremely clear that this is only going to apply for a short period."
Anders Tegnell, State epidemiologist, Public Health Agency of Sweden
People walking in Stockholm, where there are no restrictions on leaving
the house, unlike most of the rest of Europe. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT
Bjorn Eriksson, Stockholm's health chief, gave warning the city was seeing "worrying signs of increasing infection". Not to worry, he was engaged in talks with the Public Health Agency respecting bringing in local restrictions which might include imposing quarantine on families where one member might be infected. This, where at the present time those people who may share a household with one among them testing positive for coronavirus still are advised to go on with life as normal, attendance at school and the workplace.
Famously, it was Dr.Tegnell who devised Sweden's response to the arrival of the global pandemic. Advising his countrymen and women to simply proceed as normal. Depending on the population to make their own usefully protective choices. No requirement issued by the state to wear masks or to socially isolate, or to go into isolation for an inconvenient two-week period should they exhibit symptoms of COVID-19, or test positive for the virus. So people did just that; photographs out of Sweden showed people assembling as usual in groups, no masks in sight, schools open, workplaces undisturbed.
Some might impute to the scheme a total disregard for the health and safety and survival of the most vulnerable in society, the elderly and the health- and immune-impaired. They too should exercise common sense and take steps to protect themselves by whatever means, if they are at all concerned about acquiring the disease. Sweden's decision ran completely counter to its neighbours' precautionary advice and the kind of lockdown process seen there in an effort to control the situation and stem the tide of infections. Sweden had a mind to protect its economy and its trade.
Of course, most of its trade takes place with its neighbours. In lockdown and with closed borders. So much for trade. So much, for that matter, of the vulnerable in Sweden, they did indeed die in droves. To the extent that Dr.Tegnell's confidence was somewhat shaken at the price his country paid for defiance of world trends in shuttering against COVID. He mused that perhaps, in hindsight he might have done things somewhat differently ...
But then, after the first wave with its massive death toll, as compared to the more moderate toll taken on its neighbours' citizens, the situation reversed. Sweden's case and fatality toll levelled then decreased, while their neighbours' increased and Sweden felt justified in going it alone. Right now, however, Dr.Tegnell is prepared to recommend lockdown measures. Which would include school closures and strict limits to the size of groups, as long as these are local situations, measures responding to local occurrences. Which makes sense.
March may have seen no lockdown in Sweden, but after its fallen infection level, held to be the highest of any country in the European Union by mid-May, it now revels in being one of the lowest-infection countries in Europe today. Determination to maintain that low-infection level has led to the decision to reverse course and mandate lock-down in specific areas, as and when required. According to Dr.Tegnell it is of utmost importance that local restrictions be thought through, planned for specific areas.
"We have seen in Sweden that this has a tendency to hit socially vulnerable areas", he commented, pointing to Spain and the Netherlands, where resistance form the populace had resulted from hugely unpopular local restrictions. In Sweden, unlike most other countries, one does not wish to upset residents by imposing restrictions unnecessarily. Allow the epidemic to take its course and with it the lives of the immune-suppressed and elderly -- for those who survive demonstrate that they are fit to.
"Everything that made New York so distinctively New York has gone; its shopping, its Broadway theatres, its all-night cafes and late-night bars."
Fashion buyer, Manhattanite Natasha Field
"[The location is no longer workable as a luxury destination [Fifth Avenue] and the situation is unlikely to change] even in a post-pandemic New York City, should such a day arrive."
"In the current social and economic climate, filled with COVID-19 related restrictions, social distancing measures, a lack of consumer confidence and a prevailing fear of patronizing in-person 'non-essential' luxury boutiques [Valentino's future has become untenable]."
Fifth Avenue is empty of
traffic as people remain at home to stop the spread of the Coronavirus
pandemic in New York City. Noam Galai | Getty Images
"There's no reason to do business in New York. I can do the same volume in Florida in the same square feet as I would have in New York, with my expenses being much less."
Michael Weinstein, chief executive, Ark Restaurants
"We tried for a while at the beginning, unable to bring ourselves to leave the place we had dreamed of living [in] for so long."
"But when was the last time I went to a club, concert, great restaurant? I asked myself. What is New York without any of those things? Not much, quite frankly."
"I think the virus has just reframed people's relationship with the city. Maybe it will never be repaired, and that's not necessarily a bad thing."
Tom Harper, 32 former New Yorker, Vermont
Broadway theaters will remain closed until January 2021, if not longer, because of the coronavirus pandemic. Getty Images
Fifth Avenue will never be the same again, and nor will Manhattan following one of the world's most disastrous global pandemic hits. The attraction of Millionaire's Row, symbolic of New York City's prosperity and global cachet has been eclipsed. Vacated elite brand names have left great yawning gaps in the sparkling presentation of shops like Victoria's Secret and Kate Spade, boarded up now alongside high-end Italian handbag maker Valentino and Barney's.
Businesses deemed to be non-essential were ordered closed in the March lockdown hoping to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus and now that life has re-surfaced in the Big Apple many of those shuttered stores may never re-open, their intention to weather the storm defeated after five months, as a new, barren and unattractive landscape has taken the place of the former glittering, excitement-inducing one that may never return.
Tourists? Where are they? Wealthy residents to patronize the high-end stores? They appear to have vanished in a great rush to leave the city hosting a deadly virus for greener shores elsewhere. The city that played reluctant host to one of the nation's longest, strictest shutdowns no longer shines as a place to do business. Foot traffic at the famed stores in Manhattan has been reduced by 85 percent from a year earlier, and no one foresees appealing future prospects.
Broadway theaters have been shut down.Vincent Tullo The New York Times
Close to three thousand established businesses shuttered for good in the past four months and the century-old New York Daily News tabloid was forced to close its newsroom at Penn Plaza, the company saying the paper would continue publishing while evaluating "real estate needs". Indoor dining is not yet considered a wise choice in a city which has recorded over 32,000 deaths, impelling scores of restaurants to close and move out to Long Island shores in lock-step with former Manhattanites.
As for the office towers, they have seen fewer than 15 percent of white-collar workers returning to their offices and surveys suggest many will continue with the new protocol of working from home through to 2021. The Upper East Side has become a ghost town, many of its residents in financial distress no longer able to support steep costs associated with rentals and taxes. United Van Lines chief executive claims to have helped relocate hundreds out of the city to the Hamptons, Hudson Valley, Connecticut and Vermont in recent months.
The combined wealth in the city fell by $336 billion in the twelve months ending June 30, according to a report from New World Wealth and Webster Pacific. While revenues generated in other areas of the state recovered, tax collections in NYC dropped 46 percent in June leading municipal politicians to propose a wealth tax targeting the city's 100 billionaires, to help restore an enormous revenue shortfall.
Last month, Governor Andrew Cuomo who rejected imposing greater taxes on the ultra-wealthy for fear they would leave for good, issued a plea for them to return. "They are in their Hamptons homes, or Hudson Valley or Connecticut. I talk to them literally every day. I say 'when are you coming back? I'll buy you a drink. I'll cook'," he said.
The Wall St. Bull is
seen standing on a nearly empty Broadway in the financial district, as
the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak continues, in New York City,
New York, U.S
"We've seen large numbers of people completely flouting the health regulations, seeming not to care at all about their own or their families' health, wanting to have large parties." "It's hot, some people have drunk far too much, some people are just angry and aggressive and some are just plain violent." London Police Chief Cressida Dick
Parisians dance in the street at Fête de la Musique, 21 June. Photograph: Kiran Ridley/Getty Images
All across Europe, from London to Portugal, tens of thousands of young people are no longer hunkered down in fear of contracting the novel coronavirus, much less listening to the advice of medical professionals and government cautions. It's party time for the young -- lonely and bursting with energy, wanting to party in an atmosphere of stillness and mood-stifling apprehension over a more open attitude inviting a second wave of infections and accompanying deaths from COVID-19.
The massive global lockdown is being relaxed,and with it goes the tension and fear, and a willingness to gamble on the alternatives that threaten the old and the infirm, not the young and hale bursting with excitement and yearning to return to pre-COVID days of blase contemporary spontaneity. Mass gatherings have suddenly erupted, with and without face masks, with and without distancing.
Music, dance, and plenty of company with all the carefree opportunities that accompany a relaxed attitude, leaving concerns to the minds of the vulnerable aged and the health and government authorities. Their frantic celebrations of life and luxuriant youth displaying itself in the full regalia of confidence in their indestructibility bring shudders to the health community in their nightmares of a second wave of infections and a follow-up lockdown.
Police have been summoned to do their duty, reason with the youth, and failing that use whatever influence they may have to persuade them to separate and disperse. The response has been not quite predictable, leading to clashes in London where crowds attacked police with bottles, setting themselves against patrol cars. Twenty-two police officers required medical attention.
Several parties taking place in London were dispersed overnight by police. Incidents of rape, of drug offences, and of stabbings at raves in several cities are being investigated.
It's summer, after all, and nothing can dampen the spirits of the young wanting to be out and about with their peers, released from the grim reality of isolating from the prospects of infection. A virus that threatens not the young but the health-and-immune-impaired, the elderly -- and what concern is that of theirs?
Germany and France are seeing their young exuberantly enjoying street parties, oblivious to the toll their nations have been suffering, because after all, it's summer and the days and nights call out for action-oriented fun in crowds of young, lithe and beautiful people, anxious to re-establish contact with one another, sick to death of grim foreboding, sentiments not their own by natural law.
Portugal's Atlantic beaches are crowded with sun-worshippers.Thousands sought out Portugal's cities of Porto and Braga on the weekend to party in the heat. "Join us on this magical journey in the forest" crooned a message on social media for a gathering on a hidden beach west of Lisbon. "Let's get together and share some loving, vibes and music", came the irresistible call to action.
At Hasenheide Park in Berlin hundreds gathered to dance into the night in recent weeks."I think people are just longing to socially connect", commented D.J.Elias Dore in Berlin, of the thousands of young people who would under normal circumstances be dancing under the open skies at European summer festivals.
Spanish policemen ask people sunbathing to leave the Barceloneta beach
Lluis Gene/AFP/Getty Images
"Even if they don't usually get as ill, young people still transmit the virus", stated Dr.Celso Cunha, a virologist at the University of Lisbon, bemoaning that proper testing and tracing to prove whether contagion is happening will not be possible, given the thousands of anonymous attendees popping casually in and out of events.
Could There Conceivably Be A More Contentious Issue?
"It
has never been 100 percent safe to send children to school. There's
always been a risk of contracting some infectious disease, whether it's
the flu, the Norovirus or other viruses." "Children are at risk of being injured ... and suffering mental and physical harm from bullying." "But
of course we can manage these risks and put mitigating factors in place
to deal with them. This is exactly the kind of approach we have to take
now." Dr.Ronald Cohn, CEO, Sick Children's Hospital, Toronto
Experts say recent data shows children are not the super-spreaders of COVID-19 they initially believed they would be. (Erik White/CBC)
The conundrum of all the most difficult choices any society could
possibly face; how best to safeguard the nation's children from the
opportunistic clutches of a new, mysterious disease that has wrought
havoc the world over, and still allow those children to experience as
normal a childhood and education opportunities as possible? There is
never any complete agreement on any issue; there are always supporters
and detractors of perceived solutions, and in this instance there are
both, as might be expected.
Canada's largest and most prestigious hospital specializing in care for
children has issued a new report, one that the country will look upon as
an instruction manual on how to proceed in re-opening classrooms at
every level of education, and at the same time exercise due caution in
the interests of protecting one of the most vulnerable demographics in
any society. The report emphasizes the need to return children to the
classroom if for no other reason, aside from attaining an
age-appropriate education, than to continue their socialization and
ensure sound mental health ensues.
The advice contained in the report will of necessity be a surprise to
some and disturbing to others, while being greeted as a welcome solution
by yet others. Greater incidents of infection could be a result of
requiring students to wear face masks; separating children while they
socialize outside the classroom would result in negative psychological
effects, although maintaining a discreet distance between student desks
is advanced, along with the cancellation of assemblies.
Jurisdictions in East Asia, as an example, the first to be confronted
with the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19, took an entirely different,
infinitely more rigidly protective view on how to manage the safety of
children returning to school following the first wave of the global
pandemic. Hospital experts in Toronto informed a virtual news conference
with the release of the report that children have suffered anxiety,
depression and loneliness, facing a heightened risk of family discord
and abuse throughout the lockdown period.
SickKids report warns against stringent measures Ashley Fraser/Postmedia
Those same experts stressed that the psychological benefits of resuming
in-person classes in the coming usual school fall resumption period
outweigh COVID-19 risks, particularly in alignment with frequent
handwashing and ensuring that ill children remain at home. According to
an Australian report on the experience of reopening schools, few cases
of the coronavirus were found among students, with no evidence of
students being a vector for adult infection: "Children are not the primary drivers of COVID-19 spread".
"That
seems like the easiest of wins, especially for older kids; [urging
public health authorities to decree mask use in certain public places
mandatory as a key practise in curbing the spread of the virus]." "My nieces are 11 and 13. They live in Massachusetts. They are required to mask. It's not a big deal." "This
whole document reeks of the kind of laissez-faire approach that got us
into trouble with long-term care facilities and which now has Sweden in
so much trouble." "The complete lack of thought given to the role schools may play in amplifying disease that kills adults is just astounding." "If
you wanted to create super-spreader events, the way to do it would be
to gather large groups indoors and have them sing, as this document
appears to countenance." Dr.David Fisman, head, epidemiology division, school of public health, University of Toronto
Virtual learning could be offered for immunosuppressed. (Juliya Shangarey/Shutterstock)
"In
young children in particular, masks can be irritating and may lead to
increased touching of the face and eyes which could increase the risk of
infection." "Strict
physical distancing should not be emphasized to children in the school
setting as it is not practical and could cause significant psychological
harm." "Close interaction, such as playing and socializing, is central to child development and should not be discouraged." Sick Children's Hospital Report
Children, emphasizes Dr.Cohn, despite earlier indications, do not seem to be "super-spreaders"
of COVID-19. It seems more evident on the other hand that it is adults
who tend to infect young people. Schools, in his considered opinion, are
not at all likely to become a significant amplifier of COVID-19. Recent
research appears to downplay the potential of children being major
vectors for the coronavirus. British scientists produced a paper citing
family clusters of cases indicating children to rarely be recognized as
the instigator: "At the current time, children do not appear to be super-spreaders".
"[Keeping children out of school has already caused] significant adverse consequences." "Parents are telling me their children are struggling with the lack of routine and structure." "Children are sad, irritable, clingy and lonely." Dr.Catherine Birken, pediatrician
"We
are working closely with the best medical and scientific leaders in
Canada -- including the Hospital for Sick Children and the COVID-19
Command Table -- to develop health protocols that keep our schools
safe." "We will take a cautious approach that underscores our complete commitment to safety." Ontario Education Minister Stephen Lecce
Dr. Michelle Science says steps should be taken to ensure
some physical distancing in schools, but trying to enforce safe
distances among kids is impractical. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
"The lockdown was never intended to be permanent, it's clearly not possible. So ideally we would like to get it down by using a vaccine, and we call that herd immunity." "We don't have a vaccine and we're quite far from natural herd immunity and it doesn't look like we can eliminate it. So the conclusion from that is that the second wave really is a clear and present danger." "Containment is what the U.K. was trying to do right at the beginning of this epidemic. Intensive surveillance, large-scale screening, effective contact tracing, isolation of cases, quarantining of those exposed, quarantine screening of international arrivals and some residual social distancing." "That is a possible new normal and if we don't like [it] we're going to have to find other ways of living with COVID-19 because it's not going away any time soon." Mark Woolhouse, University of Edinburgh
The kitchen at the Oak Bay Beach Hotel is shown in this undated handout photo. Handout photo by Oak Bay Beach Hotel
Governments are, reasonably enough, concerned about their falling GDP, the state of their economy, the skyrocketing of unemployment and how long their populations will be able to withstand lockdown conditions with no sign of a potential vaccine in the near future, and how the months of social distancing will affect people's mental health. There have been numerous displays of public discontent, with demonstrations where social distancing has been respected and participants have been face-masked, but people are demanding that social life be re-established.
The decision -- almost universally applied across the globe -- for lockdown once the global pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization had an instant impact. People lost their livelihoods, businesses closed, and the destructive consequences were seen in an expansion of clients for food bank assistance, and panicked parents hardly knowing how to care for children who could no longer attend school; mental health issues loomed large, concerning the medical profession even as local health clinics were shut along with libraries and gyms.
Barbershops outside the Montreal and Joliette areas of Quebec will be able to open as of June 1. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)
While many nations -- including those hardest struck by the shock of wholesale infection rates, crowded ICUs, incapacitated hospitals with inadequate personal protective equipment for vulnerable hospital workers, and a rising death rate among the health-vulnerable and the elderly living in long-term care establishments -- began loosening restrictions that led to social distancing and orders to remain isolated at home, there are concerns over moving too swiftly, over not opening quickly enough, over possible consequences to one or the other.
Of those countries which had already undertaken a loosening of restrictions in the hope of yet rescuing their economies from their new, dismal performance, and their populations from declining physical and mental health, an uptick in infections led to a reversal of the situation and a reimposition of some lockdown restrictions in the hopes of preventing a second, possibly even deadlier wave of COVID infections.
A situation that saw Japan, China, South Korea, Lebanon, Germany, Iran, Saudi Arabia, El Salvador, Iraq, Sri Lanka and Pakistan reverse their decision on re-opening, forced by circumstances to return to strict restrictions on localized quarantines and in some instances, widespread shutdowns in reaction to a spurt of new infections in the restriction-loosed environment.
Close to six and a half million people globally have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Data recently released from the Office for National Statistics hint that the infection rate is most likely markedly higher reflecting that many people are asymptomatic. Dr.Hans Kluge, director of the World Health Organization's Europe desk, warned European countries that a deadly second wave is in all likelihood on the way, that now is the "time for preparation, not celebration".
Experts say lifting lockdown measures without a clear picture of where
new cases are coming from, as Ontario and Quebec are doing, is cause for
concern. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
"It seems like the lockdowns don't add a whole lot after you've done other social distancing measures." "[On the other hand], the research on isolation and centralized quarantine is extensive and compelling. We know this works." "As
long as your life doesn't require you to be gathered in large groups,
life here is pretty normal [where he lives and works, in Hong Kong]." "Ideas
go viral. When something works people imitate it and it appeared that
the lockdown in Wuhan worked. If you follow the official guidance you
never lose the lawsuit." "Information is the most powerful tool we have. Getting good information out there is important."
Lyman Stone, researcher, American Enterprise Institute, Hong Kong "By
quickly implementing public health measures, Hong Kong has demonstrated
that COVID-19 transmission can be effectively contained without
resorting to the highly disruptive complete lockdown adopted by China,
the United States, and Western European countries." Benjamin Cowling, professor, School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong
"Simulations
show that the overall burden is expected to be similar across
countries, resulting in about 528 to 544 deaths per million." "Unlike
its peers, Sweden is likely to take the hit sooner and over a shorter
period, with the majority of deaths occurring within weeks, rather than
months." Paul W.Franks, professor of genetic epidemiology, Lund University, Sweden
A study published on April 17 in The Lancet medical journal surveyed
people on how they were adapting to the COVID-19 outbreak and found that
85 per cent were avoiding public places voluntarily and almost 99 per
cent were wearing face masks outside.
The world looks toward Sweden for its approach to handling the country's
response to the presence of a high contagious, vicious virus
represented by COVID-19, ravaging populations in Europe, with Italy and
Spain particularly hard hit with the number of cases and subsequent
deaths among their populations, despite going into lockdown. Sweden,
unlike its close neighbours, Denmark and Norway, decided to opt for a
more open approach, closing most schools but otherwise ensuring that
life would go on as normal, depending on the good sense and choices of
Swedes to observe social distancing.
Sweden's high-risk experiment was a gamble the government decided on to
see whether it could succeed in avoiding having its intensive care units
overwhelmed. That outcome would serve as vindication of the
government's decision-making. If matters turned out otherwise, "health care professionals in Sweden will face the fight of their lives", since it was at their scientific promptings the government was led to make the choice for a continued open society..
Sweden permitted bars and restaurants to remain open as well as schools
for younger children. In Hong Kong, all schools were closed and everyone
diligently wore face masks, taking personal responsibility for their
health outcomes with the virus, but not shutting the city down as China
did, and most Western societies as well. Lyman Stone, the American
Enterprise researcher who lives in Hong Kong, is convinced that the
world's response to the novel coronavirus by shutting down everything is
unwarranted, that people should be trusted to observe physical
distancing on their own. "As long as your life doesn't require you to be gathered in large groups, life here is pretty normal",
he explained. Workers have been encouraged to work from home, and
schools have closed, but restaurants remain open and shopping malls are
full of shoppers. Hong Kong, with its population of 7.5 million, in
close proximity to China has seen four people die from COVID-19. By the
end of April there were almost 3,000 deaths in firmly locked-down,
business-and-school-closed-down Canada.
A protester is interviewed as he demands the
removal of the provincial coronavirus disease (COVID-19) restrictions
outside the Ontario legislature in Toronto, Ontario, Canada April 25,
2020.Chris Helgren /
Reuters
People in Hong Kong remember the 2003 SARS outbreak that hit really hard
in Hong Kong. Masks are worn when colds or the flu appear imminent, and
physical distancing becomes second nature every time a new outbreak is
reported. The medical journal The Lancet
published a study which surveyed how people were adapting to the
COVID-19 outbreak, with the result that 85 percent avoided public places
voluntarily, with close to 99 percent wearing face masks when out in
public.
Before school closures and physical distancing in Hong Kong every person
with the flu infected 1.28 people while after the automatic return to
social distancing the infection number was reduced to 0.73. A similar
effect is likely for COVID-19, according to researchers. The Hong Kong
government believes the infection rate for COVID is somewhere below 0.5.
What defines a lockdown is people ordered to remain in their homes other
than for essential trips. Disallowing people to mingle with others
socially, with the exception of their own household and many businesses
in a lockdown are ordered to close, with most social activities of any
kind banned temporarily. The adoption of stay-at-home measures in most
Western countries was based on world Health Organization guidelines,
which in turn based its advice on China's reaction to the coronavirus.
Lyman Stone analyzed the imposition of protective measures in Spain,
France and Italy, finding that deaths attributable to COVID-19 in Spain
plateaued some ten to fifteen days following lockdown. Deaths were
declining in Spain before the lockdowns even started, he found, since it
takes about 20 days for death from the disease to occur, from the day
of infection. People had adjusted their behaviour based on information
about the virus even before government forced them to.
Trusted sources giving information appeared to have a large impact on
people's behaviour in the United States, when for example celebrity
figures confirmed they tested positive for COVID. Such revelations in
tandem with a state of public alarm impacted on people's consciousness.
One of the best methods to fight an epidemic, according to Mr. Stone, is
the closure of schools and keeping children distant from one another,
just as school closures are vital for influenza epidemics since children
become the biggest spreaders.
Travel restrictions between states represent yet another important
tactic in non-lockdown situations, a move readily taken in Asian
countries in close proximity to the early coronavirus outbreak in China
where Vietnam immediately imposed travel restrictions, giving them time
to invest in other measures, the result being that no deaths were
experienced in the country. A ban on large gatherings is another
important measure, affecting 50 to 100 people. And still leaving
restaurants open, where people maintain social distancing.
Centralized quarantine and generalized mask use have been commonplace in
many Asian countries since the outbreak, whereas in Western countries a
gradual approach was common. A sophisticated system to track, isolate
and feed people in a centralized quarantine area in Taiwan, South Korea
and Hong Kong could also have contributed hugely to their successful
battle against the pandemic. People who tested positive or were in
contact with positive-testers would ideally be isolated in a hotel or a
custom-arranged space between seven to 21 days in quarantine. This
requires widespread testing.
On the other hand, with Sweden's non-lockdown 'experiment' in trusting
its population to self-monitor where the borders remain open, people can
still gather in groups of up to 50 people and no one wears masks. One
Swedish doctor has accused the government of playing "Russian roulette"
with its population, with other experts urging on stricter measures,
in response to Sweden's death figures outdistancing those of its
Scandinavian neighbours.
Sweden had about 256 deaths per million people in comparison to 38 per
million in Norway and 75 per million in Denmark by the end of April.
Sweden feels the number of deaths will even out eventually, accomplished
with less strain on their economy and on people's mental health.
Swedish professor Johan Giesecke's position is that few of the measures
used to control COVID-19 in western countries "have a shred of evidence" in support of their choices, in high approval of his own government;'s decision to avoid full lockdown. "How
long in a democracy do you think you can keep a lockdown? After three
or four weeks, people will say I want to go out. I want to go to the
pub."
A person rides a bike with their dog past
closed stores on April 29, 2020 in New York City. New York City has been
on a lockdown of all non-essential businesses since March 23, 2020.Getty Images
"Of course, we recommend that people who are at increased risk remain aware and still look after themselves." "But we also recommend that you try to find a small group of people you can meet." "It is neither good nor necessary to isolate yourself in the long term. We have seen a tendency for some people to shield themselves almost a bit too much. Perhaps so much that they have become lonely and sad through sitting at home by themselves." Camilla Rathcke, co-author, Government of Denmark coronavirus advisory
Hairdressers are among small businesses allowed to reopen in Denmark Reuters
As one of the first European countries to institute lockdown in response to the threat of the global pandemic, Denmark has also been the first country to begin easing lockdown restrictions, outside of Asia. The first in Europe to reopen schools and nurseries on April 15, retaining some measure of social distancing for children up to age 12. Small businesses opened up once again, five days afterward.
But for the present it remains a 'wait-and-see' atmosphere to try to judge whether any other restrictions might be safely lifted, perhaps around the 10th of May, accordign to Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. Around that time, Denmark's government may consider further easing its lockdown to include reopening of shopping centres, cafes and restaurants, and more senior schools for children over age 12.
The government in Copenhagen a week ago proclaimed itself -- the spread of COVID-19, not having accelerated since the loosening of restrictions -- prepared to consider new freedoms for the population, given the "R rate", demonstrating the average number of infections passed on by one person with virus transmission increased but slightly in the past two weeks, remaining below 1. Elevated somewhat from its previous 0.6 rate under lockdown, to 0.9.
Now, after several months of severe restrictions where grandparents and grandchildren were unable to see or touch one another, a green light has been given and they may once again hug and kiss, thanks to the decision by the country's Health Authority under the issuance of new national guidelines covering people most at risk of contracting the coronavirus. "But avoid handshakes, hugs and kisses on the cheek with anyone apart from those closest to you."
The intention of the guidelines was to give an improved balance to the risk of infection from COVID with its long-term dangers to mental and physical health brought on by ongoing isolation, a primary consideration in all countries where similar lockdowns have taken place, now facing the gradual re-opening of their societies and economies, given the grim economic conditions that have ensued globally.
Where Denmark recorded 484 deaths from 9,670 confirmed cases of COVID-19, its neighbour Sweden, which had decided not to institute a lockdown, but to rely on its population to sensibly adopt social distancing on their own while going about normal life, with nothing closed but for schools for children under 16, Sweden's numbers of COVID cases and deaths have been far in excess of Denmark's with 22,721 cases and 2,769 deaths resulting.
Copenhagen, the capital of Denmark, at what would usually be rush hour on April 1.
Rasmus Degnbol/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
"What we see is that in many states, you see an increase in
influenza-like illnesses, and then a week or two later, you see an
increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza." "It
provides some confirmation that what we are seeing is related to
coronavirus." "We decided to look at all deaths from pneumonia, or all deaths overall, and see how those numbers were changing," Dan Weinberger, epidemiology of infectious diseases, Yale University
Protesters demonstrate against safer-at-home orders at the
Colorado Capital in Denver on Sunday. Some counties there have
implemented stricter measures than the state, which had announced an
easing for some businesses starting Monday. (Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images)
"In New York City, this discrepancy [between numbers forecasted and numbers realized] was even more stark, with three to
four times as many excess all-cause deaths as pneumonia and influenza
deaths." "For instance, California had 101 reported deaths due to COVID-19 and 399 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths." "Many states experienced a notable increase in the proportion of total
deaths due to P&I (pneumonia and influenza) starting in mid-March
through March 28 compared to what would be expected based on the time of
year and influenza activity." "In some states, such as Florida and Georgia, the increase in deaths due
to pneumonia and influenza preceded the widespread adoption of testing
for the novel coronavirus by several weeks."
"Given the lack of adequate testing and
geographical variability in testing intensity, this type of monitoring
provides key information on the severity of the epidemic in different
geographic regions."
"It
also provides some indication of the degree to which viral testing is
missing deaths associated with COVID-19 directly or indirectly."Research report, published in MedRxiv
The United States has been hit by one of the globe's worst epidemics of
novel coronavirus. The death toll is approaching 58,000, increasing at a
steadily rapid rate. Despite this, a growing number of state governors
appear to be defying reality, in lock-step with the president anxious to
see a return to normal life, in particular that business as usual would
resume. The economy has been put to a standstill. From a situation of
full employment and more jobs than people to fill them, suddenly mass
unemployment has struck the country. On Saturday alone, there was an
additional 2,404 coronavirus deaths reported.
Yet, a belief born of desperation appears to be informing decision
makers, that the worst of the outbreak could have passed, matching
pressure from the corporate community that the devastated U.S. economy
must see some relief from the imposition of lockdown. Across the country
anger and frustration have seen protests erupt, with citizens decrying
the unneeded security steps, that their liberties have been abridged,
that the American way of life has been upended for no good and
reasonable purpose.
As evidence of that looming distrust in government action in response to
the advice from their top expert medical advisers, Americans are
demonstrating their penchant for ignoring stay-at-home orders in a
demonstration of quarantine fatigue. A team led by the University of
Maryland, with the use of mobile-phone data, discovered that Americans
have been leaving the confines of self-isolation in increasing numbers.
Operating manager Barry Lennon cleans up the table of
customer Duke Scott in the empty dining room of the J. Christopher's
restaurant on Monday in Brookhaven, Ga. As of Monday, restaurants around
Georgia are allowed to offer dine-in service. (Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)
In California, thousands of people have gone to the beaches amid soaring
temperatures on the weekend, choosing to entirely ignore the state
governor's orders. Demonstrations have been reported in Springfield, Ill
and Baton Rouge, La. Demonstrations in Michigan, where one of the worst
breakouts has occurred in Chicago, have been supported by conservative
groups. In response the governor agreed to ease some of the imposed
curbs allowing some businesses to reopen.
In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp is allowing hairdressers, nail salons
and tattoo parlours to re-open their premises; hardly the essence of
'essential' services for a population in lockdown against a dread
disease. There have been guidelines issued that clients and staff wear
masks and customers be asked questions of their health conditions; with
no way to monitor compliance. A raft of businesses will be permitted to
operate over the coming week in around 20 states.
According to the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Tom Inglesby, he believes the country is "at the end of the beginning" of the crisis. As for President Trump, he has stated that his daily White House briefings are to be scrapped, "not worth the time and effort".
Some
health experts and local politicians are concerned that restrictions
put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19 are being lifted too soon in
some U.S. states such as Georgia.
"Nobody will be left alone. We need to help those who are struggling the most." "The government won't look the other way." Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte
"If help from the government arrives in two weeks -- and another two weeks is needed to distribute it -- then we run a big risk." "The distress will turn into violence." Leoluca Orlando, Mayor of Palermo
The government has already approved a €25bn financial package to safeguard the economy.
Photograph: Antonio Parrinello/Reuters
Civil unrest appears to be alerting Italian politicians that citizens in the poorer regions of the country, reacting to lockdowns to be extended until Easter, at least, will result in rebellion by a population that has been stretched to the limits of their endurance while the novel coronavirus sickens tens of thousands and kills thousands in its wake. The overall death toll in Italy is now 11,500, giving the country the dubious distinction of having an 11 percent death rate, where many other countries experience such deathly blows at under one percent.
Another 812 victims died in a single day. Italy now accounts for over a third of the global total who have died of the novel coronavirus that China refuses to own. The daily increase of those struck just the day before stood at 4,050, bringing the country's total infections to 101,000. As the disease rampages through the country, those areas of the nation most affected have seen people resorting to lawlessness as though they have nothing to lose any longer.
People lined up at the supermarket along the street for grocery
shopping, wearing masks for fear of Coronavirus infection (COVID-19).
Reports emerged of people refusing to pay for their shopping in Sicily, claiming they have no funds after not working for three weeks. In Palermo and Catania standoffs between supermarket staff and shoppers occurred where armed police were sent along to the three largest supermarkets in Palermo in response to calls on social media encouraging a campaign of looting and attacks on responding police.
Two doctors, protected
by overalls, masks, gloves and glasses, walk through the streets of the
Spanish Quarters and collect the swabs made to some inhabitants of the
neighborhood, to check for any contagions from Coronavirus (COVID-19).
For the collection of the swabs they also use a mobile sanitary unit. KONTROLAB
That Italy and its population are under immense strain is indisputable since the government took steps to close all but essential shops, businesses and industry, desperate to dampen the infection rate in the population, amidst fears the virus could spread from the suffering north to the more underdeveloped south of the country. Dysfunctional in the sense that the various mafia-type clans have as much control there as the central government.
Struggling families were assured by the prime minister that a $625-million food voucher scheme has been launched to give them help and hope. While it is badly needed, any delay, according to regional politician, in rolling out the new scheme will ensure a backlash of lowered expectations and hope dissipating.
The mayor of Palermo warned of "exploding" social unrest across the south that might spread to the north, naming bed and breakfast owners, travel agents and gym instructors as "the new poor". Fears that the economic downturn spurred by the raging epidemic is ripe for exploitation by mafia groups such as the Camorra in Naples, the Cosa Nostra in Sicily and the 'Ndrangheta in Calabria come as no surprise.
Police carry out checks as part of the coronavirus lockdown
FABIO FRUSTACI (EFE)
This represents a general opinion site for its author. It also offers a space for the author to record her experiences and perceptions,both personal and public. This is rendered obvious by the content contained in the blog, but the space is here inviting me to write. And so I do.
