Sweden's Mea Culpa
"What every country is trying to do is to keep people apart, using the measures we have and the traditions we have to implement those measures.""The citizen has the responsibility not to spread a disease."“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done."Swedish public health agency's chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell"[Tegnell] still can’t give an exact answer on what other measures should have been taken. That question remains, I think.""For months, critics have been consistently dismissed. Sweden has done everything right, the rest of the world has done it wrong. And now, suddenly, this."Sweden’s minister of health and social affairs, Lena Hallengren
The "this" that Sweden's Minister of Health refers to is a staggering death toll. It is a gamble that failed. Sweden is no further ahead economically, it failed in its goal to establish a country-wide 'herd immunity' effect that would in theory have seen the SARS-CoV-2 virus extinguish itself in exasperation at being unable to infect people because too many were immune to its lethal blandishments. The Swedes, goes the theory, are so logical in their thinking and so capable of independence of thought they would self-protect naturally.
No need for government to get in the way, to autocratically impose limits on people's freedom of movement. Common sense would prevail. Except, somehow, it failed to. Yes, there were some restrictions imposed; no large gatherings permitted and some schools were closed, while those who were able to work from home were encouraged to do just that. Otherwise, life in Sweden went on undisturbed, nothing out of the ordinary, no routines upended by inconvenient lockdowns.
Restaurants and bars remained open, schools for children under age 16 operated as per usual, in a decidedly calculated move to do things differently, logically, under the guidance of Anders Tegnell, the country's authoritative epidemiologist whose judgement everyone appeared to trust and to revel in. Who just happens to be the very same man who now regrets the immense loss of life in his country; win some, lose some.
He did enjoy the support of those who would have nothing to do with lockdown. And Swedes themselves in general appeared copacetic, confirmed in their belief in themselves and their government. And life went on. Though it stopped for many. Sweden has a death rate that considerably exceeds its neighbours' who did go into lockdown, and this was not the way things were supposed to turn out.
Sweden realized 450- deaths-per-million (for a total of 4,500 deaths), while comparable deaths-per-million for neighbours like Denmark (100), Finland (58), Norway (44) appear almost palatable by comparison, if any deaths at all can be felt to be acceptable under any conditions.That deaths-per-million for Sweden represents one of the worst the world has seen, even in hard-hit Europe. So much for death avoidance; that just didn't pan out.
And then there is the economy. While not the worst that Europe has seen, the country's economy is in fairly dire straits, a reflection of what has occurred around the world. Sweden has a drop in GDP of seven percent projected, commensurate with the same conditions and results seen elsewhere; in other words, nothing whatever gained. For one thing, it is hugely dependent on trade with neighbouring countries and they have been in no position to trade. A forgotten calculus.
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Anders Tegnell Photographer: Pontus Lundahl/AFP via Getty Images
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Herd immunity? The general consensus is that at least 60 percent of the population would have to be considered immune to have the entire population protectively impacted.Yet by April's end no more than 7.3 percent of the population were seen to have acquired a degree of immunity. Stockholm's eventual figure, according to Mr. Tegnell might reach just over 20 percent, and that most certainly does not equate with effective herd immunity. Another calculus gone kaput.
Labels: Crisis Management, Deaths, Failure, Herd Immunity, Infections, Lockdown Rejected, Open Society, Robust Economy, Sweden
posted by Pieface @ Saturday, June 06, 2020
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