What a Tangled Web We Weave
"We are in a uniquely complicated spot.""Were being borne along a current with very few options. So the idea that we can craft a way forward easily is wrong.""They don't see it in Chinese thinking as an oppressive thing, they just see themselves in more benign terms as the leading civilization in the world, and that they ought to have an important say in the affairs of the world, and even a dominant position.""But it's not a Nazi-like military conquest of the world."Gordon Houlden, director, China Institute, University of Alberta"It's been said that China doesn't have allies, it has markets.""I attribute the Cold War spirit and the Cold War stresses in largest part to China's actions, as well as the tone of their 'wolf warrior diplomacy', which isn't very diplomatic."Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, senior fellow, former member, Canada-China Joint committee on Science and Technology"It will require much more thought, it will require much more management of foreign policy. That will be difficult for everybody It'll be particularly difficult for Canada because we haven't put much thought into our foreign policy for a long time, and we're going to pay a price in terms of the learning curve that we have to go up.""That's the first step, [former Canadian Parliamentarians and diplomats urging Canada to release Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in exchange for Canadian detainees Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor; gross capitulation to a belligerent China] when I talked about China's assault on our sovereignty and our autonomy. It's sapping the will, it causes countries to feel that it's just impossible, it's too much work.""And that was never Canada's approach in the past, but I worry that we've succumbed to that to a certain extent."David Mulroney, former Canadian ambassador to China, 2009-2012
Illustration, Craig Stephens |
In
the United States a sweeping bill was tabled to lay the groundwork for
America's strategy to oppose China's global rise. The Innovation and
Competition Act, notes strategic industries such as quantum computing,
advanced semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, highlighted in a
recommendation that the U.S. increase public support through commitments
to deeper protection for critical materials, the expansion of research
spending, and strengthening of cyber defence capabilities.
The
legislation includes Canada, where American officials schedule a role
in their China policy for Canada, plans that are deeply consequential in
the rough sketch they portray of Canadian foreign policy unfolding in
the coming decades as U.S. officials gear up to a protracted conflict
with China for global supremacy: the new Cold War. It is a war being
fought in stages on countless fronts including cyber warfare, military
expansionism, technological research, culture, infrastructure, and
intellectual property.
Canada
has been inexorably drawn into the long struggle between the two giants
and it is clear that Canada's involvement will continue as competition
gathers momentum in reflection of Canada's close ties to its neighbour.
Ottawa will be forced to navigate a growing divide between China and the
U.S., mandating policy choices encompassing everything from trade to
national security. But the truth is, it is not only America's struggle
that has invested Canada with the need to protect itself from China's
grasping feelers intending to raid other nations' intellectual property.
In
2020 Canada signed an agreement with the U.S. that would establish new
supply chains for critical minerals and rare earths in an effort to
respond to China's market dominance in those areas. Even so, the
Canadian government remains stalled over a decision whether it will
green-light China's telecommunications giant Huawei with a role in
building Canada's next-generation 5G mobile network, despite other
members of the Five Eyes intelligence network having ruled Huawei
Technologies out of theirs, for security reasons.
The American legislation speaks of a "shared vision of democracy" to maintain the "rules-based international order established after WW11". Stronger ties between Western allies are meant to be accelerated and firmed up; the loosening of export regimes protecting "critical defence-related technology" between the U.S. and Canada, "establishing
open and transparent planning with Canada on infrastructure,
cooperating on Arctic defence and energy connectivity, combating
industrial espionage", and deepening intelligence sharing "particularly in 5G telecommunications technology".
This,
in response to an increasingly bellicose and authoritarian Xi Jinping
whose plans to guide China to occupy the position currently held by the
United States as the world's greatest power, succeeded in creating an
American bipartisan agreement no other issue has moved Congress to set
aside political differences between Republicans and Democrats. The
declining prestige of the U.S. resulting from two successive
administrations' confusing signals to their traditional allies has
signalled to President Xi that an opportunity is opening for the Chinese
Communist Party.
President Xi points with pride to Beijing's "socialism with Chinese characteristics";
a commitment to communist ideology, yet stripped of Marxist elements to
favour capitalist-oriented policies that have succeeded in establishing
China's authority as the world's greatest manufacturing and trade
colossus. China has miraculously risen as an economic arbiter, with
President Xi downplaying its none-too-subtle export of political
ideology and cultural highlights.
In
expansion and exploitation of client countries with its Belt and Road
initiative in rapid expansion of road, rail, sea and telecommunication
links with Europe, Asia and Africa; Beijing's modern version of its
fabled Silk Road enterprise of yore is advancing China's interests.
China, shielded by its membership in the World Trade Organization has
adroitly managed to undermine multilateral institutions, in the process
awarding itself the rewards of more liberalized trade.
In
the process, giving ample examples of why it should not be trusted.
President Xi promised that China had no intention of militarizing the
artificial islands Beijing built in the disputed South China Sea, and
then proceeded to do precisely that. Assuring it had no intention of
spying on foreign companies, Beijing continues to indulge in systematic
industrial espionage campaigns, surgically purloining intellectual
property. China's Ministry of State Security was officially linked to
the hack of Microsoft email software where 400,000 servers globally had
been infiltrated
The
distortion of multilateral institutions through gaining positions of
power within groups dictating international settlements or which set
diplomatic and industrial guidelines has been achieved by deliberate
design. At least 40 UN institutions focused on engineering, maritime
law, health, finance, atomic energy and a range of other areas sees
Chinese nationals occupying leadership positions. Including placements
at the International Telecommunications Union, Industrial Development
Organization, and Food and Agriculture Association, for leverage in
international systems of trade and oversight.
Incredibly,
despite all the problems that Canada has experienced with China, from
cyber espionage, to intelligence robbery, and gravest of all the arrest,
incarceration and sentencing of Canadian citizens for purported crimes,
by a vengeful China, trade ties between the two countries continue to
flourish. Canadian exports to China increased eight percent to $25
billion, not quite a match for the 75 percent of Canadian exports that
enter the United States but still conferring on China the position of
Canada's 2nd largest trading partner.
Former
Ambassador Mulroney recommends separating Canada from China in the
areas of sensitive national security -- such as artificial intelligence
research or critical minerals, and continuing to partner in other areas
such as agriculture and climate change. That would, of course, depend
largely on how much China values agriculture trade as opposed to
opportunities to continue its thievery of technological research and
intelligence.
Labels: Beijing's Aspirations, Canada-U.S. Relations, U.S.-Canada Compact, U.S.-China Relations
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