Russia's Hollow Victory

"The Russian army has started very intensive destruction of the town of Sievierodonetsk, the intensity of shelling doubled."

"They are shelling residential quarters, destroying house by house."

"We do not know how many people died, because it is simply impossible to go through and look at every apartment."

Serhiy Gaidai, Luhansk governor 

"This will be the critical next few weeks of the conflict."

"And it depends on how effective they are at conquering Sievierodonetsk and the lands across it."

Mathieu Boulegue, Chatham House think tank, London

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting via teleconference on May 17    EPA

The riverside town of Sievierodonetsk is being bombarded by Russian troops in a major assault for the last Ukrainian-held territory in Luhansk where Moscow claims ethnic Russian separatists have moved the area solidly into Russian possession. A massive artillery bombardment as a last bastion in Luhansk is hammering Sievierodonetsk to solidify Russian possession of one of two northeastern provinces into Russian territory.

Both the city and its twin, Lyshchanak located on the Siverskiy Donets river's opposite bank represent a Ukrainian-held pocket in the east that Russia has focused on overrunning since mid-April, once its campaign to capture Kyiv had failed. According to Ukraine's general staff, in an offensive on Sievierodonetsk, Ukraine forces had pushed the offensive back along a stretch of the front line. 

Some military analysts view the advance of Russian forces on the Luhansk front as a major drive to achieve Russia's less ambitious war aims, to capture increased territory that pro-Russian rebels claim. Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu claimed the "Liberation of the Luhansk People's Republic" would soon be completed.

The conditions in the Donbas, including Luhansk and its neighbour Donetsk province are "hell", according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; the region has been completely destroyed: by Russian troops. Which speaks volumes about the Russian campaign, claiming Ukraine territory as its own by tradition and right of arms in a bid to force Ukraine to 'voluntarily' cede land to Russia. What Russia stands to gain if it manages to complete its takeover of the Donbas is a smoking, crushed ruin.

Moscow anticipates the face-saving issue of the capture of Luhansk and Donetsk, in finally being able to claim a 'victory' since it had announced this to be its objective. That goal came closer to reality when Ukraine ordered its garrison in the port city of Mariupol to stand down following a siege of close to three months. A situation that Russia celebrates as a 'surrender' and Ukraine defends as a 'withdrawal' for the purpose of preserving the lives of Ukrainian servicemen. 

More than 1,700 soldiers in the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Ukraine, have surrendered since Monday, Russian authorities said. Here, Ukrainian servicemen sit in a bus after arriving under escort of the pro-Russian military in Olenivka in the Donetsk region on Friday. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

 

Roughly two thousand Ukraine militia members have so far surrendered at the Azovstl metalworks. The question of how many Ukrainian fighters surrendered has not been confirmed by Kyiv, but Britain's estimate is that a large force had laid down arms, the estimate placed at around 1,700. An unknown number of fighters remained within the underground labyrinth of the steelworks, unprepared to surrender their defense of the ruined city. 

An unknown number of troops remain in the sprawling complex, seen here on Friday, which is the last bastion of Ukrainian resistance in the strategic port city — a target from the start of the Russian invasion nearly three months ago. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

Ukraine's military command had assured the city's defenders they could emerge and save their lives. The commander of the Azov Battalion, the unit that has defended the steelworks, confirmed the order to halt fighting was being carried out, stating that all civilians and wounded fighters were removed from the plant. "The situation is really hard and horrible and my husband is on the way from one hell to another hell, from Azovstal steel plant to a prison, to captivity", the wife of one soldier lamented.

The Red Cross undertook registration of hundreds of Ukrainians surrendering as prisoners of war. Moscow claims the prisoners will be given humane treatment under internationally-recognized war conventions. Russian politicians on the other hand, claim some of the Ukrainian soldiers must be tried for crimes, and even executed, presumably as neo-Nazi fascists, as Vladimir Putin has so often claimed them to be. 

A convoy of pro-Russian troops is seen before the evacuation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the besieged steel mill on Monday. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

Russia is desperate to emerge from this vicious fiasco it has created, with some semblance of pride in its enterprise. One that has crushed its reputation as thoroughly as the bombardment of Ukraine's towns, villages and cities have been crushed by Russia's war machines. The Kremlin's orders to its troops to succeed in its noble enterprise of striking civilian targets, killing civilians by the thousands, destroying their homes and creating millions of displaced and refugees have created a living hell for innocent people.

 Not so happily for Russia, military analysts maintain that Russia's resources to achieve its goal of capturing the entire Donbas may yet fail, owing to scarcity of resources. In hopes of bolstering its war effort, Moscow's parliament is considering a bill to invite Russians over age 40 and foreigners age 30 and over to join the military.