Cat and Mouse in Kherson
"The Ukrainians are not in a hurry. The intent is clearly to make it as difficult as possible for the Russians to hold their positions.""The Russian theory of victory is to project force until the Ukrainians lose their strategic depth, which is their support from the US. and Europe.""The Ukrainian theory of victory is that they degrade Russian forces until they are unable to fight."Jack Watling. senior research fellow for land warfare, Royal United Services Institution, U.K."Western arms shipments have bolstered Ukraine's potential, but they don't give it a decisive advantage.""Ukraine can slow us down, but they can't do that forever."Igor Korotchenko, head, Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade, Moscow
A Ukrainian artillery unit fires at a position in the Kharkiv region. The gains have been made while Moscow is focused on repelling Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive around Kherson Ihor Thachev/AFP/Getty Images |
Ukrainian
forces, points out Mr. Korotchenko, are suffering major casualties in
Kherson. It certainly doesn't seem so, although it's difficult to verify
or squash the claim. Independent investigators cannot enter the
fighting zone. The world at large must weigh the propaganda coming out
of Moscow and Kyiv bearing in mind what can be verified, to sift through
false messaging for the glimmer of fact.
Ukraine'
counteroffensive is now a week old, a limited scale operation where the
country's military is realizing some of its goals through early
positive results. There has been confirmation that at least two villages
have been recaptured by Ukraine, fairly well demolishing the Russian
claims of Ukrainian push-back failure. Further, Russian-occupied Kherson
authorities postponed a planned referendum on joining Russia due to a
situation of 'security risks'.
The
Ukrainian advance has matched the progress of Russia's widely derided
intention on the eve of its invasion of Ukraine to speedily seize the
eastern Donbas region, part of which Moscow had already annexed along
with the conversion of Donetsk and Luhansk to independent 'republics'
with firm links to Russia. Conquering the entire Donbas was to be seen
as compensation for the Russian military's inability to swiftly enter
Kyiv and dispatch its government.
The
fighting personnel level of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is far more
modest in comparison to the Russian military presence. In terms of
ammunition and casualties, it is incurring lower costs with its measured
advance. There is the targeted 40 to 50 km territory to retake, modest
in comparison to hundreds of km in the Donbas. Ukrainian troops are
engrossed in pinning the Russians against the Dnipro River
Each
of the protagonists are involved in disrupting the other's supply lines
in hopes of achieving a situation where forces are drained of the means
to fight. Longer range High Mobility Rocket Systems (HIMARS) supplied
by the U.S. to interdict the flow of ammunition to Russia's huge
artillery forces gives focus to the Ukraine mission. It requires making
their way through Russian forces in Kherson, where reliance on a few
damaged bridges over the Dnipro River is vulnerable to halting
reinforcment and arms.
Russian
heavy losses of troops and equipment has it focusing increasingly on
implementing discord among financial and arms suppliers to Ukraine.
Their goal is to stifle Kyiv's intentions to continue fighting. The
Kremlin relies heavily on the expectation that economic pain Europe is
being hit with will erode its political support for Ukraine as recession
hits and living costs soar.
Supplies
of natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline has
been shut off, with the warning that it will be opened only if and when
European nations drop their economic sanctions against Moscow. Moscow's
downbeat mood reflecting battlefield progress reeks of lost morale. The
calculation is that the stalemate between the two sides risks turning in
Ukraine's favour while it builds up reserves and acquires modern arms.
The Institute for the Study of War describes the Kherson counteroffensive as verifiably and "tangibly degrading Russian logistics and administrative capabilities in southern Ukraine".
Kyiv has stated its intention of pushing Russia out of all its
territory that comprises its internationally recognized border including
Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014.
"F***ing HIMARS s**t. They are long-range and our tank was hit too....,""We already have 300's [wounded] here. They f***ed us up. Next to us were boys from Belogorsk, from the 165th Brigade.""Shrapnel hit the big time, f**k...they laid under the tank, it hit the tank. Boys didn't have trenches or anything."Russian soldier speaking to his wife; Ukraine-intercepted call
Labels: Kherson, Russian Casualties, Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian Counteroffensive
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