Overworked Propaganda or the Real Thing?

"Since the USSR's collapse, Russian intelligence has degraded to the extent that the only way to redeem itself after "Salisbury" and 'three-day plans' is to photoshop and fake leaks."

"[The documents represent yet another Kremlin disinformation effort, and the Russian army will see the real plans on the ground soon."

Mikhailo Podolyak, adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy

"[The five documents, marked [top secret] gave away valuable intelligence ahead of Ukraine's spring counteroffensive.]"

"[Representing a] first breakthrough for Russian intelligence."

"In particular, there were graphs of the expected supply of weapons, the number of troops and the consumption of ammunition."

Telegram channel with links to FSB security services

The documents include detailed accounts of the training being provided to Ukraine by foreign powers  Reuters

That "top secret" American battlefield intelligence was leaked and appeared on Russian social media has caused the Pentagon to open an investigation. Clearly the U.S. is less than pleased that Russian propagandists are gloating over a trove of documents that fell into their hands, detailing Western assistance meant for Ukraine. Kyiv, on the other hand, insists the information is entirely fake.

 

In Mikhailo Podolyak's opinion referring to the 2018 poisoning of a Kremlin critic in Salisbury England along with his daughter, and the Kremlin's failed aspiration to complete its capture of Ukraine within three days, their bark is bigger than their bite. He was responding to a Telegram channel with links to Russia's FSB boasting of a breakthrough in insider intelligence alerting Moscow to highly secure U.S.-Ukraine secret military details.

 

Dated between February 23 and March 1, the documents reflected training schedules and locations for Ukrainian and Russian military units and artillery guns along the front line. Also purportedly revealed, estimates of timelines of when muddy spring conditions in southern and eastern Ukraine would suffcently dry to enable swift tank advances on Russian positions.

 

Ukrainian soldiers fire a German howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000   Reuters

 

Twitter users were quick to notice that the photos of the documents published by Russian Telegram channels seem to have been altered. The original social media posts showed the documents listing 43,500 Russian soldiers and 17,500 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the 13 months since the start of the invasion. It was noted that later the statistics were altered to show 17,500 Russian troop losses compared to 71,500 Ukrainians.

The documents, according to Podolyak, were more Kremlin disinformation efforts. The Russian army, he said, "will see the real plans on the ground soon", although the Pentagon stated it was taking the leaks seriously. Deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh at the Pentagon, said "We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter.".

Along the front line, Ukraine has been building up forces all year, not disclosing where or when it plans to begin its counteroffensive. German media was informd by the U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken that he expected the counteroffensive to begin in "coming weeks".  Location of the counterattack has specuattion focused on the occupied town of Melitopol, south of the Dnipro river, the southern front line.

Following disclosure of the leak, Reuters has reviewed more than 50 documents labelled "Secret" and "Top Secret" that first appeared last month on social media websites, beginning with Discord and 4Chan. While some of the documents were posted weeks ago, their existence was first reported Friday by the New York Times.