Thursday, June 08, 2023

Ukraine, Giving as Good as It Gets


"A ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place and allows Russian President Vladimir Putin] to consolidate control over the territory he has seized, and to rest, rearm, and reattack -- that is not a just and lasting peace."
"[Allowing Moscow to retain the one-fifth of Ukrainian territory it occupied would send the wrong message to Russia and to] other would be aggressors around the world."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken
 
"Naturally, this [issue] will be one of the main irritants and potential problems for many, many years to come."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
 
"[The air campaign aims to] degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities, but ... the Russian prioritization of Kyiv is likely further limiting the campaign's ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions." 
Institute for the Study of War, Washington

"Russian commanders now face an acute dilemma of whether to [strengthen] defences in Russia's border regions or reinforce their lines in occupied Ukraine."
U.K. Ministry of Defence
Damage to a block of flats in Kyiv following a Russian drone strike on 29 May
A block of flats in Kyiv following a Russian attack in late May   Oleh Pereverziev/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
 
Western allies of Ukraine in its desperate efforts to wrest its territory back from Russian occupation may be thinking in terms of a peace deal, but it isn't terribly likely that the victim of Russia's wholesale invasion itself is even remotely considering such an event. The Ukraine leadership in the past has brushed aside anything resembling 'peace' talks, given the Kremlin's demands that Ukraine accept the Russian military's gains in occupying and Putin's declarations of Russian territory, a fifth of Ukraine.

And the continued insistence that Ukraine must cease and desist its aspirations to become a member of NATO. Ukraine's conditions for 'peace', on the other hand are straightforward and justifiable; that Russia immediately withdraw all its troops, and that restitution be imposed upon Moscow for the destruction of Ukraine's infrastructure. Removal of Vladimir Putin from the presidency of Russia would be a fine step toward approaching any measure of peace.

NATO will come part of the way on Ukraine's reasonable demands, that Russia be responsible to pay a share of the reconstruction of Ukraine, be held accountable for launching its full-scale invasion, and crawl back into its beasts' lair of plotting and carrying out territorial ambitions against its neighbours. Finland, which shares a long border with Russia, is a recently-approved-and-welcomed member of NATO and its concerns over Moscow's future plans are no less acute than Poland's and the Baltics'.

Vladimir Putin's paranoia over the presence of NATO in its near-abroad, absorbing the presence of its former satellite countries when the great hegemonic power of the Soviet Union had enveloped them had collapsed, was the initial motivation to invade Ukraine. NATO's presence, offering its protective pact through the military alliance sends Moscow into a frenzy of palpitations in fear of a potential attack against its own sovereignty.
 
Russian missile or drone being shot down over Kyiv's zoo
One drone or missile was shot down over Kyiv's zoo   Gleb Garanich
 
Recent overtures from China and Brazil to broker peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, said Mr. Blinken, would have the cautious support of the United States, with the proviso that any peace agreement that might emerge must uphold principles of territorial integrity, independence and respect for sovereignty. The tension of donor-materiel collegial nations between outrage over Moscow's invasion, and their own commitment to continue providing Ukraine with defensive/offensive arms creates a struggle weakening that commitment to the point where a 'peace' agreement has its attractions.

China describes itself as a neutral interlocutor, willing to serve as a mediator even though it has supported Moscow politically. Beijing urged Ukraine-supporting countries to put a halt to their weapons-provisions to Ukraine. Air defences in Kyiv shot down over 30 Russian cruise missiles and drones in the sixth air attack in six days, according to local officials. Without the military arms that Ukraine receives from supporting nations, the war would be over and Ukraine utterly neutralized.
 
People take shelter in a Kyiv metro station during an air raid alert on 5 May 2023
People use Kyiv's metro stations as shelter during air raid alerts   Alina Smutko
 
Kyiv was attacked simultaneously from various directions by Shahed drones from Iran, and cruise missiles from the Caspian region. Ukrainian residents of the capital city have been strained by recent Russian attacks that have tested the strength of Ukraine's air defences. At the very tine Kyiv officials strategize their counteroffensive  to push back Kremlin forces. Daylight attacks and drone and missile attacks took place on 17 days throughout the month of May.

At Russia's southern Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the regional governor wrote that their air defence systems shot down "several Ukrainian drones" overnight Thursday. Ukrainian forces shelled two villages a day later in the neighbouring Bryansk region bordering Ukraine. Energy facilities in Russia's western Smolensk region bordering Belarus were attacked by two drones, courtesy of Ukraine.

Destroyed vehicles in the Belgorod region, Russia. Photo: 31 May 2023
Russia has blamed recent shelling in Belgorod on Ukraine - a claim denied by the government in Kyiv   Getty Images


 

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