On the One Hand ... and Yet On the Other Hand ...

"Ukraine is grinding down Russian forces. Russian gains are small relative to costs. There has been no collapse of the front."

"[On the other  hand], Ukraine is losing territory. The coldest part of the winter is yet ahead."

"The current theory of success is unclear, or what resources will be made available by the West in 2025."

Michael Kofman, Carnegie Endowment

"Measures to identify and destroy enemy assault groups that are trying to infiltrate our battle formations are underway."

Ukrainian military command defending Kurakhove

A soldier holds up a Russian flag in Kurakhove, Donetsk Region, Ukraine in this screen grab taken from a social media video released on January 5, 2025, obtained by Reuters

 

Russia's Defence Ministry now claims that its troops in eastern Ukraine have taken command of the Kurakhove stronghold after months of battle, thus adding the ruined town to conquests claimed by the Kremlin. A Russian claim, however, denied by the Ukrainian force tasked to defend Kurakhove even while acknowledging that Russian forces were attacking urban areas.

The previous day the Russian Defence Ministry revealed that Ukrainian forces were pressing renewed attacks in Russia's Kursk border region. To this claim, Ukrainian officials made no counter-comment as is usual, with Ukraine's leaders allowing a time lapse between Russian announcements, before responding.

An air of uncertainty hangs over Kyiv, with the impending inauguration of incoming President Donald J. Trump, when no one knows how the mercurial and often adversarial new president will proceed with  his pre-election promise of putting a quick end to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and his known reluctance to continue financially supporting Ukraine, and providing it with new weaponry.

Kurakhove acts as a stronghold for the Ukrainian army on the eastern front line in the partially occupied Donetsk region. The town still holds about half of its original pre-war population of about 20,000 people. Under relentless attack from artillery, multiple rocket launchers, powerful guided bombs and drones, many of its buildings have been shattered. 

Kurakhove is notable for its industrial zone, a thermal power plant, and a reservoir. It is established on a highway between eastern and southern Ukraine. In its determination to capture all of Donetsk, Russia has been pushing west in a slow and personnel-costly drive to capture its goal, with a view to capitalizing on greater land occupation before the inevitable start of peace negotiations driven by a Trump White House.

Pokrovsk, a key road junction and rail distribution centre used to dispatch supplies to a broad span of the Ukrainian front line, is also in Russia's cross-hairs. Ukraine is short of front line troops, straining mightily to contain the larger Russian army. 

A Ukrainian artillery crew fires towards Russian infantry in Donetsk region, Ukraine, December 24, 2024.  Ivan Antypenko/Suspilne Ukraine/Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images