To The Violent Victor Go The Spoils

"If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we're going to say  you're fools, you're foolish and we're just going to take a pass."

"[Is Vladimir Putin dragging his feet on negotiations?] -- I hope not."

U.S. President Donald Trump

 

"We are now reaching a point where we need to decide whether this is even possible or not. Because if it's not, then I think we're just going to move on."

"It's not our war. We have other priorities to focus on."

"[The U.S. administration wants to decide] in a matter of days."

"[Mr Trump was prepared to declare] Well, we’re done [on the peace talks; the US has] bigger challenges that we need to figure out."

"There’s no one saying this can be done in 12 hours. But we want to see how far apart it is. We need to figure out here, now, within a matter of days, whether this is doable in the short term, because if it’s not, then I think we’re just going to move on."

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

 

"We think we have some interesting things to report on, of course in private."

"I won't prejudge [the negotiations] them, but we do feel optimistic that we can hopefully bring this war, this very brutal war, to a close."

U.S. Vice-President JD Vance 

The US has warned it will walk away from talks aimed at brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal within days unless there are clear signs that an agreement can be reached (AP)

"Fairly complex [negotiations are continuing between Russia and the U.S.]"

"Russia is striving toward resolving this conflict, securing its own interests, and is open to dialogue."

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman

The Trump administration's soft power play with Vladimir Putin and its turnabout on previous support and helpfulness to Ukraine has been a godsend to Putin, seeking to consolidate his gains to Ukraine's territorial detriment, even as Ukraine's Volodomyr Zelenskyy gamely attempts to placate Trump as much as one could possibly disarm a growling bear. Ukraine's president can still rely on the stalwart support it has been given throughout the EU, with France, Germany and the United Kingdom while taken aback at Trump's mercurial changes, hoping still to be able to mount a sizeable force to defend Ukraine's broken borders.

 

Even while Marco Rubio in his role as Secretary of State has warned the U.S. may decide to "move on" from its efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, with no progress in coming days following months of intense efforts failing to halt the fighting, Trump may be prepared to throw in the towel. But there is still that side agreement with Ukraine, surrendering its rare earths resources to the U.S. craving the minerals to challenge China's preeminence in securing most of the world's resources, and in so doing, attaining 'skin in the game'.

 

Should Ukraine assent to the agreement avidly sought by Trump, ostensibly as pay-back for the billions it has invested in supplying Ukraine's military with highly technical advanced military gear during the past several years, at least those areas encompassing the agreement would see the United States defending Ukrainian sovereignty to a degree, to protect its own investments. No one could criticize Ukraine for its unwillingness to sign away its resources, without the guarantees it demands that security be a vital link.

 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, center, and Germany’s Political Director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Gunter Sautter, right, attend a meeting on Ukraine and its security, in Paris Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Julien de Rosa, Pool via AP)

Landmark talks among U.S., Ukrainian and European officials have finally produced the scaffolding for steps to be taken to achieve peace, with progress finally being made between the principals. The anticipation is that another meeting scheduled for London in the coming week might strike the decisive determination in the Trump administration's continued involvement in the drawn-out peace agreement discussions. 

 

The dismissive comments heard from Mr. Rubio and Mr. Trump increases pressure on a peace deal to be reached by both sides, even as Trump is impatient for the minerals treaty with Ukraine to be signed and done with. A complete truce can only succeed in the wake of ongoing long and contentious talks belying the Trump claim in the early days of his election campaign that he would end the war in mere days' time because of his adept artistry in the art of the deal, he is so fond of repeating.

 

"We have a minerals deal", Trump triumphantly stated, even while Ukraine's economy minister stated that it was merely a memorandum of intent that had been signed prior to a potential full agreement at some later date. The deal signed by Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko is expected to usher in significant investments, infrastructure modernization and long term co-operation between Ukraine and the United States. 

 

Both parties to the eventual agreement while stating readiness to implement the agreement at their separate talks in Saudi Arabia with U.S. officials, spoke afterward of different timelines on the start of halting strikes. Russia, for one, has been quick to resume strikes on Ukraine. The sacred Easter weekend was no exception. Russia's plan before being riveted into place by a peace agreement, is to continue to bomb Ukraine into submission, to acquire more territory from the weary, overtaxed smaller and poorly equipped Ukrainian military.

 

Territory that stands to be acknowledged for want of a more equitable and just conclusion, as Moscow's gains of war through violent territorial acquisition, citing that old rule of 'possession being nine-tenths of the law.' Putin plans to gain from the Trump administration's favouring of the aggressor and disciplining of the defender, who will be forced to submit to the demand that saving more lives through stopping the war trumps the sovereign desire to recover territory taken by force in internationally illegal plunder of conflict.

 

Ukrainian rescuers work at the site of a rocket attack in a residential area of Kharkiv on Friday   EPA

 

"[Trump’s approach to the negotiations] was sort of remarkable [for putting all the pressure for concessions on Ukraine. It suggests that Trump might want to] sidestep the war [and move forward to deepen ties with Russia]."

"[If the Trump administration were to pull support from Ukraine, it would help Russia but it wouldn’t end the war]."

"The only way to bring the war to an end is to somehow increase pressure on Putin to negotiate seriously."

"And the only way you can really do that is by ... maintaining and intensifying support for Ukraine on the battlefield."

Thomas Wright, senior fellow, Brookings Institution,Washington

In this photo taken from video distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Friday, April 18, 2025, the Russian BM-21 “Grad” self-propelled 122 mm multiple rocket launcher fires towards Ukrainian positions in Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)