A Relationship Maintained on Distrust

"Fully abandoning the legacy of this agreement would be, from many perspectives, a mistaken and short-sighted step."

"To avoid provoking a strategic arms race ... Russia is preparing to continue adhering to the central quantitative limitations of the New START Treaty, for one year after February 5, 2026."

"We believe that this measure will only be  viable if the United States acts in a similar manner and does not take step that undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence potentials."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press

 

While this key treaty with the United States is set to expire in February, Russia has offered to extend the treaty for another year -- out of the goodness of  Mr. Putin's heart. He does not wish to 'provoke a  strategic arms race', but he is not averse to threatening use of the nuclear arsenal in Russia's possession whenever he feels particularly paranoid, fearing that things are not quite going his way. Just a little self-protective tic of his personality.

 

Signed by both parties in 2010, this treaty is the remaining nuclear arms reduction agreement shared by the globe's two atomic powers in possession of the greatest number of nuclear warheads, one that limits the number allowable by each side. Tensions over the Ukraine conflict have not been conducive to amicable relations sufficient to ensure the world's two top nuclear powers share a desire to lower the nuclear threat; leaving each with the impression that the other is preparing to breach the limits.

 

It was in fact, Russia that froze participation on its part in New START in 2023, while continuing to honour the treaty limits restricting both sides to a maximum of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads each, representing a nearly 30 percent reduction from the previous 2002 limit. Together the two countries control over 80 percent of the world's nuclear warheads in an atmosphere now prevailing of mistrust and calculated risk.

 

Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev sign the New START treaty at Prague Castle, Czech Republic, in 2010. Getty Images

 

The two countries withdrew from the landmark Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019, which had been concluded by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987. That agreement limited the use of medium-range missiles, conventional and nuclear.  A law revoking Russia's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was signed by Mr. Putin in 2023 even while Moscow claimed it would honour the moratorium on atomic testing.

 

Shortly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in an all-in military assault, Russia's nuclear forces were placed on high alert. A decree lowering the threshold for using its nuclear weapons was signed by the Russian leader in 2024. So the question lingering in knowledgeable minds is why this outreach by Putin, however temporary, at a time when Putin is playing cat-and-mouse games with his neighbours in his near-abroad, convinced that if his Ukraine adventure succeeds, they may be next in line.

 

The eventual replacement of single-warhead Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with RS-24 Yars ICBMs—seen here on display at the Victory Day Parade in May 2023 in Moscow—equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles could potentially add several hundred warheads to Russia's ICBM force. (Credit: President of the Russian Federation)

"[This is] an important and positive move."

"More nuclear weapons will not make anyone safer."

"By agreeing not to exceed the current strategic nuclear limits, they could reduce tensions, forestall a costly arms race that no one can win, create diplomatic leverage to curb the buildup of China’s arsenal, and buy time for talks on a broader, more durable, treaty."

Daryl G. Kimball, director, Arms Control Association, Washington 

Has anyone reminded Mr. Kimball that Russia and China have signed a new mutual engagement pact that ensures each has the other's back? Trust Russia? Putin enjoys putting his neighbours on tenterhooks of apprehension; last week warplanes and drones overflew the sovereign airspace of Estonia and Poland,  Russia violating their airspace in separate incidents. Romania also said Russian drones breached its airspace. And more recently Denmark and Norway were treated to mystery drones flying over their airports. 

"[Russian agencies are tasked to] closely monitor relevant American activities, particularly with regard to the strategic offensive arms arsenal [with a particular emphasis on plans to] expand the strategic components of the U.S. missile defense system, including preparations for the deployment of interceptors in space."

"The practical implementation of such destabilizing actions could undermine our efforts to maintain the status quo in the strategic offensive arms sphere."

Vladimir Putin 

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists