Shaping Tensions
Just goes to show how precipitate it is to breathe those heartfelt sighs of relief prematurely. The Berlin Wall falls, the Cold War is over. The USSR dissolves, its satellite prisoners-of-geography free to go their own way. A world class ideology-cum-social-system evaporates through the burden of its own inefficient and inhumane failures. Grudgingly on the part of greater Russia, enthusiastically by those former satellites, now free to pursue their own uninhibited agendas. To take unto themselves the riches of their very own natural resources, to govern their countries and their weary populations as both see best to fit their future national expectations.To explore all opportunities for economic and nationalist options. Including that great European political leveller, that hot-pot of opportunities and damper of border disputes, the European Union. Oh, and NATO, that too. My, wouldn't that sting, to see one's former client states join those very democratic institutions engaged in the purpose of flattening the playing field, opening trade and exchange opportunities on the one hand; offering the protection of a military shield on the other. While the very country that once controlled the fate of all the others, in a paternal dictatorship of determined asset-building, is shut out.
But things have changed in the last few years. All those irritating little smarts, the humiliating put-downs suffered by an economically struggling Russia have receded into the past. A new, wealthier, more confident and assertive Russia has taken its place. One that can once again throw its considerable weight around, both with respect to enabling energy supplies to its dependent neighbours, and with its emerging power base within the United Nations. And with this newfound confidence has come a steady deterioration in relations with the West. Sad to see, after post-collapse years of warming relations.
Russia now thinks it can call pretty high-stake shots, withholding and thus causing energy shortages in parts of Europe, along with its recalcitrance on signing onto international energy treaties with the European Union. Now the world's second-largest exporter of oil, and with a healthy gas supply, Russia can strut her stuff, retreating into a balky relationship with her old cold-war antagonists. Vladimir Putin is understandably annoyed over the positioning of U.S. missiles in Eastern Europe which appear to aim directly at Russia, although the U.S. assures him the defense system is there in fear of attacks from the Iran and North Korea.
It's amazing how cutting off oil and gas supplies, using consumer boycotts, air and travel restrictions, wine and meat sanctions will gain compelling attention from those countries upon whom these irritations are imposed, former family, friends and allies, now very distant relatives. The slowly emerging democratization of Russia has been placed on the back burner and there have been signal reversals, along with interferences in the sovereignty of neighbours. But isn't that par for the course with strong countries like Russia? Like the U.S.? Like England? Like China? On the flip side the European Union is prepared to play a high-stakes card of their own; throwing a wrench into Russia's planned entry into the World Trade Organization.
Estonia is the latest recipient of aggressive attention by its former friend and ally, due to its insistence on poking Russia's past sacrifices in fighting Nazi Germany in the eye, with a removal from its high-profile positioning of a statue of a war-time Soviet soldier. "Attempts to make a mockery of history are becoming an element and an instrument of the foreign policy of certain countries," Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister declared. Giving umbrage to neighbours through insensitively-inspired tactics doesn't auger well for any relationship. But countries don't take kindly to what is perceived to be interference in matters of internal decision-making.
And it's hard to argue with such impassioned statements from patriots: "The memory of the victors does not fade, this memory is sacred to us, and attempts to relate to this memory blasphemously, to commit outrages against it, to rewrite history, cannot fail to anger us" added Mr. Lavrov. "Unfortunately, certain organizations such as NATO and the EU connive with these attempts."
There may or there may not be truth to the allegations; the EU and NATO are coming to the defence of one of their own, once one of Soviet Russia's own. Antagonism between enemies who were once friends swiftly gets out of hand, with each side having its own memories, its own particular history, its own grievances and traditions. Spitting matches are fine, as long as they don't deteriorate to vindictive and irremediable quarrels where each gets short-changed and matters escalate beyond redemption.
Someone's got to give.
Labels: Political Realities, World Crises
posted by Pieface @ Sunday, May 13, 2007
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