generalspeaking

MAD? Not Quite

Mutual Assured Destruction was a desperate protocol that the-then two disaffected super-powers exercised during the Cold War in a human trust that neither would be so foolish as to succumb to the provocation of using a nuclear device, one on the other. Although on each side, the finger to thrust that little red button was always on alert, behind the determination that each would not be surprised by a pre-emptive strike.

Behind which, nonetheless, was the understanding that to unleash that massively destructive armament would be tantamount to relieving oneself of one's humanity.

The inhuman and some still insist needful decision to drop relatively primitive nuclear devices in the shape of two atomic bombs, one on Hiroshima and the other, days later, on Nagasaki providing ample opportunity for the world to witness the destructive horrors of such devices. The universally-felt dismay at the extent of lost lives and generations of affected individuals from the radioactive fall-out served as a point lesson in restraint.

Nuclear-possessing countries of the world, while having acquired a nuclear arsenal, possess them without serious thought of ever having to use them other than for their deterrent effect. That, at least, is the prevailing wisdom. Neither the United States, Russia, France, England, China or India, let alone Israel would or could imagine themselves to be the cause of such a mass disaster that using a nuclear device would cause to the world.

Yet when Pakistan achieved their nuclear breakthrough, and their rogue nuclear scientist sold nuclear plans and technical assistance to countries like North Korea, Syria, Iran, and Libya all bets were off. Pakistan and India came fairly close to cataclysmic war over Kashmir, and Pakistan's incendiary hatred for India. North Korea has achieved rudimentary nuclear weaponry. Syria is on the cusp, along with Iran, of doing the same.

South Africa and Libya remain the two countries which did manage to become nuclear-arms owning, but South Africa voluntarily discharged their program, and Libya was prevailed upon through the success of isolation by the West and a protocol of imposing economically harmful embargoes to surrender theirs. In most of these instances cooler heads finally prevailed.

In the case of Iran, North Korea and Syria the world trembles in anticipation.

Iran's belligerently Islamist theocracy is determined to achieve nuclear power leading to nuclear weapons. It has been forthright in declaring its determination to wipe Israel off the map of the Middle East. American military chief Admiral M. Mullen claims "My concern is that the clock continues ticking. I believe that Iran is very much focused on getting that capability. this is a very narrow space we have."

The nightmare vision of Iran successfully acquiring nuclear weaponry makes the world an uneasy place. The tacit agreement that MAD exemplified in arms control and reduction and the assurance that neither protagonist during the Cold War would unleash hell upon themselves simply does not work in the Iran-Israel equation. Iran, mindful of the imminent appearance of the Hidden Imam, the 12th Madhi heralding Armageddon, is complacent with the idea of mass destruction of an imperfect world, inducting the faithful into Paradise.

If Iran unleashed a nuclear device on Israel, a 100-kiloton device would instantly kill 9,000 people in Tel Aviv, injuring 4,000 more and in the space of three weeks the toll would soar to almost a million dead from the plume of radiation spreading outward from the bomb blast. Iran would have succeeded in replicating what Nazi Germany succeeded in doing. Six million Jews would be killed. Iranians are the original Aryans, given honourable Third Reich status by the Nazi regime whom they admired and aligned with.

Israel's instant retaliation would result in sending off a much more powerful nuclear device with a far more accurate delivery, killing 57,000 Iranians in Tehran, soon increasing to 1.5- million, and ultimately 5.1 million injured with a week. With Israeli nuclear weapons targeting other major Iranian cities and military bases, a total of 16 to 28 million people might be destroyed within a three-week period. Horrible conjecture.

There is much to apprehend most sane, realistic heads of state from abandoning humanity and launching such a truly catastrophic human disaster. But the fanatically divinely inspired insistence of Iran's ayatollahs, not merely its Supreme Leader, but all of them, claim guidance from Allah in the execution of such an attack. And since it would inspire the 12th Mahdi to finally return and finalize the destiny of the faithful, there is nothing to lose and much to be gained for believers.

Clearly, this is a scenario representing the very worst that the world can envisage; humankind bringing utter and irreversible destruction upon itself. For once that genie is out of its bottle, it would be extremely difficult to repress and contain other insanely-inspired fanatics, either religiously-inclined or ideologically, state, or non-state actors from repeating those final fireworks.

Labels: Social-Cultural Deviations, Technology, World Crises

posted by Pieface @ Sunday, July 19, 2009