generalspeaking

Turkey and the Herons

Before the election of the Turkish Islamist party to power, Israel and Turkey, the two truly (hitherto) secular, (non-Arab) nations of the area, had enjoyed decades of diplomacy, friendly relations (relatively speaking) and co-operation. Including a robust trade between the two countries, and joint military manoeuvres. Turkey's friendship with Israel has been important for a number of reasons; not only to have a regional 'friend', but to be able to access the air space over Turkey for training of Israeli pilots on a wider airspace than is available over Israel.

Kamal Ataturk's secular legacy, enshrined in Turkey's constitution, upheld by its legal system, and assiduously protected by its military, has been breached, with the ascension of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamist Justice and Development Party to power. Which party has attempted to bring a bit of sharia into the administration of the secular Turkish system of law, and has managed to re-introduce head coverings for women, in universities, much to the dismay of many Turkish women. And since the investiture of Prime Minister Erdogan, the once warm relations between the two states have cooled considerably.

Ankara was looking for a reason acceptable to its growing population of increasingly fundamentalist citizens to unleash criticism against Israel that would bring the country closer to its Muslim neighbours in a planned political re-alignment more in keeping with the new Turkish administration's future plans for itself. The verbal flagellation from the Turkish Prime Minister visited upon Israel in Davos, post-Operation Cast Lead, was opportune from that point of view, creating the landscape for the schism that would follow. The Turkish government's instruction to Israel that it was not welcome to take part in the traditional air force exercises taking place in Turkey was merely a follow-up.

While a report in a Turkish newspaper attributed the abrupt dismissal of Israel (which had the effect of cancelling the Anatolian Eagle exercise, which NATO, the United States and Italy were slated to take part in, but pulled away from once they became aware of Israel's enforced absence) to Turkish annoyance over a delay in the delivery of unmanned aerial vehicles from an Israeli arms manufacturer to the Turkish Armed Forces, this was simply an irritant. Meant to deflect attention away from the fact that it was the government of Turkey, decision. Though Tayyip Erdogan claimed this to have been an Armed Forces, not an administration decision, that disrupted the joint air exercise.

Foreign Ministry sources in Turkey claim it was military officials who demanded that Israel refrain from participation in the drill. Because, ostensibly, they were irritated that the deal between Israel and Turkey to supply Israeli-made spy drones, named Herons, experienced a tardy delivery. "Turkey needs those vehicles in its fight against terror. What led to the recent crisis between Turkey and Israel was the delay in the delivery", according to the official. Even Erdogan's second-in-command insisted that "The Anatolian Eagle [exercise] is an organization of the Turkish Armed Forces. It is up to the air forces and the General Staff to decide on which countries will participate in the exercises. The government has not interfered in the decision."

Yet those who know, point to Turkey's altered foreign policy and domestic situation. "I think the timing has more to do with Turkey's internal and foreign politics. We should bear in mind that the balance of power [in Turkey] is shifting toward the civilian authority. Despite the military's plans for the exercise, which included Israel, the government asked them to exclude it", according to a military analyst based in Ankara. This too marks a substantial change in Turkey's politics, since its military has traditionally had veto power over the lawmakers, and has sustained close ties with Israel's military. Criticism has come from Turkey's Islamist press, echoing the perceptions of the Islamic Justice and Development Party, with Israel's involvement in Turkish military exercises.

Those planned Israeli-Turkish, NATO-U.S.-Italy exercises may have been cancelled, but in the same time-frame Turkey held military maneuvers with Syria, in a steadily warming of relationships there. Turkey's dismissal of Israel was high commended by Syria. And the situation appears to lay out a broader strategy of Israeli isolation, of threatening Israel's long-standing bilateral ties, inclusive of a robust trade and strategic interests between it and Turkey. Turkey has abandoned its ties with Israel for the greater interest of broadening its ties with Syria and Iran. The noose is tightening on Israel to move forward with the peace process. To abandon its needs and embrace that of the Palestinians. Turkey citing its "sensitivity on Gaza, East Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa mosque".

At the very time when Israel - on the basis of its traditional ties with Turkey, a trusted friend of the past - has asked Ankara to consider distancing itself from Palestinian Islamist Hamas, and with Iran, Turkey's Prime Minister is on the cusp of a state-to-state visit to Iran this month. Those Arab neighbours whom Turkey had been keeping at arms' length are now seeing a much-heralded move from Turkey to renew and strengthen relations. Leading to ministerial meetings between Turkey and Syria under a newly-created Strategic Cooperation Council. A fundamental shift, reflecting fundamentalist determinations.

Syria, the new friend of Turkey, has been funding Hezbollah operations in Lebanon, helping it re-establish and enlarge and modernize its arms depots. Every type of military hardware that Syria has available to it is now being made accessible to Hezbollah to enhance its current arsenal. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, cautious about potential clashes with Hezbollah is not too terribly exercised about enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1702, forbidding Hezbollah from holding arms south of the Litani River; a direct threat to neighbouring Israel. It is a triumvirate; Iran paying, Syria supplying, Hezbollah procuring. Turkey looking in approvingly?

Turkey has been somewhere in the middle of all thus. To all outward appearances, acting as a friend and interlocutor to Israel, as the only non-Arab Muslim country in the geography, attempting to broker a peace agreement between Israel and Syria. There is illusion and there is reality, and the two become inextricably interwound and convoluted, challenging the most intrepid reader-between-the-lines to interpret. Typically Middle-Eastern. Turkey's avowal that it is intent on fighting terrorism, and its purchase from Israel of state-of-the-art drones for that ostensible purpose appears fairly flabby in the face of all this.

What does seem evident, with other Arab countries placing pressure on Jordan and Egypt to set aside their peace agreements with Israel, is that the Arab-Muslim noose appears to be tightening, again.

Labels: Israel, Middle East, Traditions

posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, October 14, 2009