Buying Time
Fear and apprehension can prod inspirational thinking among those who refuse to simply sit back and allow sinister events to pace themselves into reality. After which those who will be affected by their presence will mourn that when they first became aware of those dread possibilities, out of a sense of helplessness, they did nothing.The problem about 'doing nothing' is that one becomes a passive victim. While 'doing something', even if it is stop-gap, even if it is hugely unsuccessful in the final analysis, means one has made the effort.
Sometimes making the effort and succeeding to a certain degree buys time. Unfortunately, that old adage, 'act in haste, repent at leisure' always seems to pop up when insufficient attention is given to the details because, as that other old adage tells us, 'the devil is in the details'.
So that, when the Stuxnet worm was designed and implemented it did successfully cause some damage to Iran's uranium enriching equipment through the infection of its computers.
The damage was enough to delay the Islamic Republic of Iran's plans to proceed post-haste with the design and construction of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.
Buying a year or two, a hiatus which would pass quickly enough. The Stuxnet worm, it seems, was a brilliant innovation in destabilizing the spinning centrifuges, but evidently while there was genius in the program, there was also a regrettable level of amateurishness in it as well.
Still, the country's nuclear program did suffer a temporary backslide from its original time-line to success. "The minimum timeline, then, for the first weapon, is over two years under the Pakistan method and one year for the batch method. Developing a means to deliver a nuclear weapon adds to the timeline." Mark Fitzpatrick, the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).
A year, two years. Much can happen in that space of time, and possibly nothing may occur that will further destabilize the country's nuclear program. Very kind of Pakistan to have sold their developmental methodology to Iran. That's what friends do for one another; we thought Pakistan was 'our' friend, but then, that's life.
It's all in the family; shared religion, shared radicalism, shared ambitions.
But then, the country's brilliant nuclear scientists can option another, alternative but unproven process whereby the manufacture of highly enriched uranium can be speeded up in a process known as the "batch enrichment process", and then, evidently the time frame
shortens to a one-year span to reach success in generating enough fissionable material for a bomb. For two bombs.
Or more, Allah willing.
Labels: Iran, Pakistan, Political Realities, Technology, Terrorism
posted by Pieface @ Friday, February 04, 2011
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