generalspeaking

Egypt, Tomorrow

The Egyptian armed forces now securely back in control have given their pledge that theirs is a temporary authority, awaiting the re-writing of the country's constitution and the free and fair election of a new civilian governing body. And then they will obligingly melt into the background. Always on the alert, however, to do their duty to their country. Above all, to save it from itself.

And the Western media, being onside, is a really nice bonus.

Of course, having President Obama finally making up his mind is not a bad thing, either. His tenuously insipid pronouncements, announcements and grandiose glimmerings of control at a time when the U.S. had clearly no influence, spelled confusion in the minds of onlookers only; Barack Obama was in firm control, knew all along what he was conveying; the mangled message was an illusion.

The reality is, according to the jubilant Western media, that the democratic way of life and governance is proving irresistible. It's that 'didn't we tell ya so!?" syndrome. But sometimes a rose is a rose is a rose doesn't work, and this is one of those times when the democracy that is known and loved in the West will be transformed beyond recognition.

It already has been, and will continue to be further disfigured beyond recall.

Bearing in mind that the ruling military council does not want to be seen as controlling the country and has admonished those tasked (including a Muslim Brotherhood representative) to remake the constitution for which they've been given ten days to come up with a miracle of acceptance. After which a leisurely six months will pass to offer competing political parties ample time to organize themselves and mount an election campaign.

A formality that will, in effect, leave two entities standing; the current National Democratic Party, now seen to have been disgraced by their years of corrupt autocratic rule, though in fact they performed for Egypt quite a fine job of administering the affairs of the country with some notable human rights exceptions. And, of course, the waiting-on-tenterhooks-and-finally-opportunity-has-materialized, Muslim Brotherhood.

Take your pick, energized and triumphant Egyptians. Whatever the choice, it will have brought democracy to modern Egypt born from the ashes of ancient Egypt. With the change in the constitution and a change in leadership in style and substance, all will be well. Violent criminals will be plucked off the streets and returned to the jails; police stations will be re-built, as will government buildings that were torched in the peaceful protests.

The historical, irreplaceable and priceless heritage objects of antiquity that were handily heisted will be missed, but that loss too was part of the peaceful protest. In due time foreign investment will return, foreign- and Egyptian-owned manufacturing will get up to speed once again, the stock market will recapture all it lost, and tourism will once again boom.

The price of food will continue to grow, and imported wheat, more costly than ever, will be used for subsidized bread for the poor.

Under a new government something will have to be done about the 40% of Egyptians living well under the poverty line. And while that is being bruited about, jobs for all those unemployed young men must also be achieved. Just incidentally, those who have employment insist it is past time for raises in their livelihood to lift them out of the mire of the employed poor, still better off than the utterly destitute.

And then there's the matter of a monumental deficit and that miserable debt that keeps ballooning. Imagine, if Egypt were on a war footing with its neighbour, Israel, how much of its stretched treasury would be wasted on prosecuting war after war - just like old times. Wait; isn't that just what the Muslim Brotherhood is demanding, that Egypt abrogate its legendarily-despised peace treaty with Israel?

With Shariah law imposed on the country how will that impact on tourism, on relations between foreigners visiting the country, given to understand that casual Western-style clothing is no longer permissible at those overheated vacation spots? And relations between Egyptian Copts and the majority Muslim population under the Muslim Brotherhood's rule, possibly a formula for a new round of persecution?

The possibilities that democracy brings to Egypt seem boundless, fascinating, quite unrecognizable. Just as well that Hosni Mubarak will likely not be around to witness the tumult, the downward-spiralling changes that would surely break his heart.

Labels: Economy, Egypt, Environment, Political Realities, Poverty, Traditions, Troublespots

posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, February 16, 2011