Fogging The Future
Turkey holds quite a unique position; a member of NATO, the only Muslim nation that is a member of NATO, and the only NATO member which has no troops stationed in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, Turkey has its place in the order of things, as a mediator, a conciliator, a force for accommodation. and it is from and within Turkey that potential accommodation through peace bargaining will take place between the Government of Afghanistan, its NATO and UN defenders and the Taliban.The Taliban are, after all, mostly Pashtun, the most populous, most influential tribal group within Afghanistan; President Hamid Karzai is himself of that tribe. As violently oppositional as the Taliban are to Afghanistan's current government and its leader, they do have much in common as a people. And Hamid Karzai is more than willing to deal with them, to accommodate them to a degree, to share with them an integrated form of governance.
Sharia law will be re-imposed, and women's rights will receive another resounding set-back in the country but that is of little concern to President Karzai, just as it little concerns most of the male-dominated society there - for women should know their place and it is not alongside the males in a dream of equality and legal proportionality. Girls and women will just have to surrender their dreams.
The possibility of the government and the insurgents reaching a compromise will be a solution not only to Afghanistan itself, despite the losses to any kind of democratic notional government and social advances, but it will represent a solution to the dilemma of the NATO countries mired for far too long in a 'war' they cannot and will not 'win'. Afghanistan is historically unconquerable.
And, since the Taliban are every bit as representative of Afghan culture, heritage and traditions as are the more 'enlightened', relatively speaking, representatives of the current government with their war-lord histories and their irrepressible corruption, it is the natural order and the natural state of things in that country that will be returned. Medievalism incarnate.
And the United States, for one, which is still wobbling from its financial downturn, will save $113-billion annually by pulling out of the country. The solution will be found in the manner in which the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban's leaders will relent their adverse positions to find accommodation with one another; if Western forces leave and a civil war ensues, Afghanistan's military and national police will prove no match for the resilient, resolute Taliban.
But like all Arab or Muslim countries, sectarianism and tribalism and the ancient antipathies that arise from both, will never guarantee stability among the partners with their separate political ideologies and priorities. The entire region, comprising the uneasy neighbours Pakistan, Iran, India, Russia, and the 'Stans, have never been complacently good neighbours to one another, always seeking the advantage.
In a sense, it's just as well to leave them to their own devious devices. Their own inimitable heritage, culture, tribal and religious fundamentals confounding their advance into modernity, fogging the future with uncertainty.
Labels: Afghanistan, Conflict, Corruption, NATO, United States
posted by Pieface @ Sunday, June 05, 2011
<< Home