Friday, August 05, 2011

Terror Risk

The 2011 Terrorism Risk Index compiled by British risk analysis company Maplecroft offers some comfort to Canada, ranking it comfortably low on the list of Western countries at risk of terror attacks.

The history Canada has of what we now term terrorism attacks came from a diversity of sources; in the 1960s from a Doukhobor offshoot in British Columbia, then from the separatist Front de Liberation du Quebec in 1970, to Armenian-Canadians attacking the Turkish Embassy in 1985, and the bombing of Air India flight 182 that same year, taking 329 lives.

Most of the terrorism attacks taking place now globally are attributed to a single source, however: violently ideological Islam.

And while Canada has suffered some jihadist attacks, they've taken place on the cusp of action, apprehended in the planning stages, demonstrating the alertness of the country's security agencies and illuminating the intentions of mostly home-grown Islamist jihadists seeking to wreak terror in the country by sowing fear of bloody attacks meant to take as many victims as possible.

Canada was ranked 86th out of 197 countries for risk of terror attacks. The United Kingdom, on the other hand, where a number of well-orchestrated, violent atrocities have taken place, was ranked 38th, the highest among major western nations. Maplecroft identified not the causative of well-known Islamist attacks in Britain, but the deteriorating situation in Northern Ireland, with 25 reported terrorist attacks last year, the period studied.

The worst placement of any western nation was Greece, given a "high risk" evaluation. The United States was ranked 61, Germany 62, France 45, and with the United Kingdom, they all represent "medium risk" venues. China, on the other hand is ranked at 39th for risk. The assessment takes into account the intensity and frequency of terrorist events between April of 2010 and March of 2011.

Canada's hosting of the G8 and G20 summits in Toronto and the vandalism that took place that damaged businesses and vehicles was included in the assessment, as was the anarchist bombing of the Royal Bank branch in Ottawa, preceding the summits. Canada ranked 64th in the previous year's assessment, giving us our "low" ranking, even while it was noted that the current rating does not assess for risk of future high-impact attacks.

Norway's unfortunate experience with the Oslo attack and the atrocity on the Utoya island camp occurred before the rankings were assessed, and it was given a low rating of 112. The deaths of 77 Norwegians through mass murder by the now-infamous Anders Behring Breivik has obviously greatly altered Norway's risk assessment.

In the "extreme risk" categories it isn't surprising to find Somalia in unenviable first place, followed by Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan, and then South Sudan. Yemen comes in at 6, then the Palestinian Territories, DR Congo, Central African Republic, Colombia, Algeria, Thailand, Philippines, Russia, Sudan, Iran, Burundi, India, Nigeria, and Israel, at 20.

According to the data assessed, terrorist attacks are on the increase, up 15% from the year before, with 11,954 incidents over the latest one-year period. They reported a death decrease associated with the attacks, from 14,478 to 13,492 lives lost as a result of all terror-related attacks.

Data was provided from the U.S. National Counter-terrorism Center's Worldwide Incidents Tracking System.

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