The Arab Winter: Egypt's Political Beneficiaries
The mortuary has run out of coffins in Cairo. Thirty-six protesters dead. Police and military deny they are using live ammunition but protesters have picked up the casings. Of course rubber bullets are capable of inflicting quite awful damage too. The Arab Spring has long passed. The bleak, dark Arab Winter has duly arrived.Thousands of people in Tahrir Square have re-assembled, determined now as they were before. Having finally seen that the military whom they had initially celebrated as being with them, and to whom they extended a hand of trust, are in effect no different now than they were with Hosni Mubarak at the helm. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would prefer to remain in power.
Egyptians have two options: to accept the governance of the Supreme Council with a civilian oversight governing body that will have certain limited powers - or to hang on to their intention to see the Egyptian Armed Forces finally defeated in their purpose and become an arm of government, directed wholly by an elected parliament.
Every option comes with a potentially problematical hitch: that elected parliament will be top-heavy with Islamists, particularly driven by the Muslim Brotherhood. And Sharia law will most certainly be installed as befits an Islamist state. And many other things will be altered, not the least of which is the likelihood of an abrogation of the Egypt-Israeli peace treaty.
Which wouldn't make most Egyptians blink an eye; that at least would fit their expectations. Much else would not. They would effectively have given up through violent dissent, one totalitarian government for yet another one. But this would be their ill-considered choice. One they cannot quite entirely visualize. Though some do, the secular citizens, the idealistic ones.
The veterans of the revolt against Hosni Mubarak are determined to proceed. "If we stay in the square, if we refuse to leave no matter how many are injured or how many die, if we are brave, then others will see us and join us and we will win", said one of the students. And he was right; Egyptians came by their thousands to join the rebellion, proudly and despite the violence of the police.
"We're doctors, we're doctors", the men pleaded, showing their identity papers, to no avail. Beaten, dragged off, imprisoned. Their reward for tending to the countless wounded. They will no doubt be subjected to torture and privation.
Imagine how very concerned Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi of the Supreme council of the Armed Forces is right now. He and his senior advisers have offered compromise solutions. The ruling military council has met with Muslim Brotherhood representatives and those of other Islamist groups.
Most of the other political parties boycotted the session. An agreement was reached to name a new civilian cabinet, this one led by a "technocrat" prime minister, a la Greece and Italy. The transition to civilian rule will be accelerated; a new constitution and a presidential election will be slated for June 2012.
And under this agreement met by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the Muslim Brotherhood it has been agreed to proceed on schedule with the first round of elections for a national assembly. Which the Muslim Brotherhood is poised to win big for a large share of the seats.
They are not the opposition, but they most certainly are the beneficiaries.
Labels: Conflict, Egypt, Political Realities
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, November 22, 2011
<< Home