A Clear Red Line
In September the United States, along with twenty-five other countries plan to stage a sweeping exercise to search for mines in the Persian Gulf: a demonstration of determined unity along with a clearly defensive operation meant to alert Iran that any attempt to block oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz will run into very stiff opposition. Is that the clear red line that Israel insists must be mounted to ensure that Tehran fully appreciates Western resolve that nuclear weapons are prohibited for its weapons arsenal?Within the next few months the American administration plans to complete a new radar system for Qatar that would have the effect of combining with similar systems already in place in Israel and Turkey to create a sweeping arc of antimissile defence. This, according to military officials. Another clear red line; alerting Tehran that should it manage by defiantly purposeful stealth to develop a nuclear weapon, mount it upon missiles, this antimissile system will defeat its purpose.
Assuming, of course, it is a fail-safe system, and since there is so much at stake here, particularly for Israel, how fully comforting is it? Beyond what a series of aerial lightning strikes and bunker-buster bombing might accomplish, for example? Particularly if it were the U.S. air fleet with their impressively Titan bunker-busters. There might be a feel-good feeling about resisting the strike option since threats alone do not result in countless deaths that might result from military strikes.
Stopping Iran cold in its morbid desire to acquire nuclear arms when it has been informed by Allah that nothing should be denied them would be a feat beyond either cajoling or threat. And the need to stop, if not at the very least, slow down Iran's nuclear-ambition momentum becomes greater with each passing day.
Despite Iran's modestly sanctimonious declaration at the Non-Aligned Nations summit that it plans to lead an international push to abolish nuclear weapons. Can so many countries who sent their delegates to this international meet possibly be that gullible? Could any country other than Iran be quite so treacherous?
Only in history and if we move the clock of time and experience back to the 1930s and on into the '40s in Germany.
These latter exercises on the part of the United States and allies have two obvious purposes; to issue an unmistakable message - call it a 'Red Line' if one wishes substantively - that so much will be tolerated and no more, and the secondary purpose, equally vital in the apprehension of many, to influence Israel that much is being done to ensure Tehran does not achieve its purpose.
In view of all the upheavals that have shocked the Middle East since the spring of 2012 and onward, in view of the destabilization that has thus far occurred, and the loss of life, and the growing encroachment of extreme Islamism, the fears of another kind of nuclear-grade implosion is front and centre. The unleashing of a bitterly fearsome maelstrom that will be impossible to extinguish.
The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin E. Dempsey, delivered the message for the U.S. administration, that an Israeli-launched attack on Iran would "clearly delay but probably not destroy Iran's nuclear program", and that, all things considered, the international coalition of nations involved in sanctions against Iran "could be undone", in the event that such an attack were "prematurely" undertaken.
Pontius Pilate couldn't have said it better."I don't want to be accused of trying to influence nor do I want to be complicit if they choose to do it."
Labels: Conflict, Iran, Islamism, Israel, Middle East, Political Realities, Security, Societal Failures, Technology, Terrorism, United States
posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, September 05, 2012
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