Wednesday, September 19, 2012

 Chemical Volatility

 "The fact is we know that they made a decision to move the weapons stockpiles to strategic positions, and then they made a decision to test the deployment of their chemical weapons.  They are sending every signal that they are leaving the door open to using chemical weapons."  Unnamed Western intelligence official

This has long been a concern, that the Syrian regime, in its viciously prolonged death throes, may in desperation to avoid being toppled as seems inevitable, resort to using its stockpile of chemical and biological weapons against the insurgents.  Syria's possession of these weapons has always represented a back-of-mind concern, but with the events of the last year, those concerns loom large.

And now that Maj.-Gen. Adnan Sillu, three months after his defection from the Syrian military has revealed that this is precisely what spurred him to abandon the regime of Bashar al-Assad, there is even greater reason for more acute concern.  "We were in a serious discussion about the use of chemical weapons, including how we would use them and in what areas.

"We discussed this as a last resort - such as if the regime lost control of an important area such as Aleppo", confirmed Maj.-Gen. Sillu, in an interview.  He described the meeting held at Syria's chemical weapons centre south of Damascus as being the "last straw" that convinced him he wanted no further part of upholding the regime.

The German weekly Der Spiegel reported that five or six shells capable of delivering chemical weapons had been fired by Syrian tanks and aircraft in an exercise near Aleppo last month, close by the largest chemical weapons testing facility, Safira.  Officers of Iran's Revolutionary Guards corps helicoptered to the Safira research centre for the exercise.

"They are placing them in positions where they can pose a tactical threat.  It is a broadcast to the world to watch out - the Syrians are serious.  By placing them in sensitive areas they are sending a clear threat", according to a statement to The Times, by a senior Israeli defence official who added the possibility that Israel might take direct action to stop the weapons from reaching Hezbollah.

Fear of repercussions had stopped the regime from using those dread weapons in the past.  "Now, if they have nothing to lose why not share these weapons?  If a war starts between Hezbollah and Israel it will be only good for Syria", explained Maj.-Gen. Sillu.  Speaking also of many meetings in both Damascus and a military base near Deraa, between the regime and members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
"They were always coming to visit and to advise.  They were always sending us scientists and bringing our scientists to them.  They were also involved on the political side of how to use the chemical weapons."

The Safira chemical research centre, used to produce chemical agents such as sarin, tabun and mustard gas, often hosted North Korean and Iranian scientists, as cited by Western intelligence agencies, mentioned by Der Spiegel.  North Korea and Iran represent the world's greatest threat of global destabilization with their belligerent nuclear programs.

Iran has second place, only after the United States, as regards its biological and chemical weapons stockpiles.  Its client state Syria stands in third place globally for chemical weapons production and storage.  And the fear is that Syria is prepared to proliferate the ownership of these weapons, handing over ownership to their friends and colleagues - aside from use by the regime itself.

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