Monday, November 04, 2013

Too Little, Too Late; Trust Squandered

"The United States believes that the U.S.-Egypt partnership is going to be strongest when Egypt is represented by an inclusive, democratically elected, civilian government based on rule of law, fundamental freedoms, and an open and competitive economy."
American Secretary of State John Kerry
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, center, meets with Egypt's interim Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy, left, and interim President Adly Mansour in Cairo, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2013. Kerry is in Cairo pressing for reforms during the highest-level American visit to Egypt since the ouster of the country's first democratically elected president. The Egyptian military's removal of Mohammed Morsi in July led the U.S. to suspend hundreds of millions of dollars in aid. This is the first stop in an 11-day trip that will take Kerry to the Mideast and Europe. (AP Photo/Jason Reed, Pool)
AP Photo - Jason Reed -- Kerry meeting with Foreign Minister Nabil  Fahmy and interim president Adly Mansour in Cairo

Just as the trial of former Muslim Brotherhood-linked President Mohammad Morsi is set to get underway, the arrival of John Kerry sends an unspoken message. Mr. Morsi effectively represented the candidate for the Egyptian presidency that had the consent and approval of the Obama administration, whereas long-time ally President Hosni Mubarak's American approval was stale-dated under that same administration.

Former President Hosni Mubarak is now released from incarceration on charges of causing the deaths of Egypt's Arab Spring protesters, and appears on the cusp of being restored to honourable public regard as befits an elder statesman-emeritus now retired, and the Islamist former President Mohammad Morsi, who has taken Mr. Mubarak's disgraced place in prison, now faces similar charges of being responsible for the death of protesters during the popular backlash against the Muslim Brotherhood rule.

Egypt has turned itself upside down and inside-out, and Washington does not quite approve. So much so that quibbles over nomenclature; whether through military coup or popular revolt, the government has changed, and U.S. Congress rules on financial support proffered historically to friends and allies in the Middle East meant a revocation of the annual $1.3-billion, mostly benefiting the military, now responsible for upsetting the expectations of another American president.

Egypt has long basked in the cooperative trust that existed between it and the United States, having historically unceremoniously invited the former USSR to decamp. Now, with the newer, frosty relations between it and America, it has invited Russia back into its sphere of friendship and Moscow is only too happy to accept, anticipating yet another harbour to result for its naval fleet in the region, along with that of Syria's. Its fleeting expanding while that of the U.S. has diminished.

In broad reflection of its influence within the Middle East. The Obama administration has embarked on a series of judgemental decisions and choices that reflect a type of clumsy diplomacy that belies its former reputation as a reliable and cooperative ally in the region. And this, at a time when so many of the Muslim countries in the geography have reacted to internal demands for change resulting in the most unexpected of changes.

Its new tack with Syria, acceding to Russian manipulation favouring the regime of Bashar al-Assad's Shia minority in Syria, as opposed to initially aiding and assisting the majority Sunni Free Syrian Army rebels had the unfortunate result of seeing a mass influx of thousands of al-Qaeda-linked terrorists. Russia's support for Iran, for Hezbollah and Syria appears to have fatally infected the U.S. administration whose president seems frozen in an attitude of uncertainty.

As for Egypt, if the fighter planes and other armaments Egypt wishes to acquire from its usual supplier are no longer available as a result of American pique, why then, it has only to turn to its former supplier, and the Kremlin is happy to oblige. That U.S. funding is no longer available is also no large concern, since Saudi Arabia has done the neighbourly thing, and provided Egypt with greater funds than the U.S. withdrew, allowing Egypt to bridge its financial turmoil.
U.S. Secretary of State Kerry meets with Egypt's Foreign Minister Fahmy in Cairo
Jason Reed / Reuters - Foreign Minister Fahmy second from left

None of which was enough to give Mr. Kerry pause as he lectured Egypt, informing Egypt's Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy that there is a broad intention to ease tensions between the two old friends, however tardily, speaking of his country's disapproval of arrests that appear politically motivated and inconvenient prosecutions of like vintage. Urging upon Egyptian authorities 'due process' and criminal proceedings' transparency. Which, doubtless, Egyptian authorities were already convinced they were proceeding with.
U.S. Secretary of State Kerry participates in a joint news conference with Egypt's Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy in Cairo
Jason Reed / Reuters

For General Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi has one of those famous "road maps" for presentation. It begins with amending the constitution adopted under the former president now disgraced, to reflect a non-Islamist tilt for the country, along with a new charter that will be surrendered to a nationwide referendum before year's end. Now, how much more democratic can one be, under the circumstances of a Muslim Brotherhood backlash of violent dissent?

Egyptians take issue with their unfortunate perception that the United States feels entitled to judge its performance and the affairs of the country by standards that the Americans impose upon the nation. They also feel aggrieved that a foreign country has interfered by taking certain positions of support that the population feels are inimical to its comfort level and its future administration. The United States denies any and all of those assumptions.

As in perish the very thought.

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