Sisi in Russia: Moscow's Egyptian gambit
Field Marshal Sisi (l) met with Vladimir Putin at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow
There
is undoubted symbolism in Moscow being the first foreign port of call
for the Egyptian military chief Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi since
he ousted the Islamist administration of President Mohammed Morsi last
July. Symbolism and some substance too.
Russia and Egypt are talking about stepping up defence cooperation and there could be big arms contracts too. Russian press reports speak of a potential $2bn deal to supply Egypt with advanced aircraft, helicopters and surface-to-air missiles; all to be largely paid for by Saudi Arabia and the UAE - Egypt's allies in the Gulf.
So, on one reading, Egypt
appears to be at a strategic cross-roads; frustrated with Washington,
now tilting back towards Moscow, bringing with it memories of the close
ties that existed between Cairo and the Soviet Union prior to the 1970s.
For some two decades Egypt was one of Moscow's closest military allies
in the region. Russia supplied the overwhelming bulk of its key military
equipment: armour, artillery, combat jets and surface-to-air missiles.
The Soviet Union's subsequent collapse seemed to put paid to Moscow's major interest in the Middle East and it largely ceased to be a player in the Mediterranean.
Field Marshal Sisi - with Russia's foreign and defence ministers - has yet to formally announce his presidency bid
Today though, a little over 25 years later, Russia is back; its diplomacy driven by a desire to bolster its long-time ally, the embattled President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but equally motivated by a sense of opportunity. The popular uprisings so loosely dubbed "the Arab Spring" have thrown Western policy towards the region into crisis and especially so in Egypt.
The Obama administration
struggled to cope with the changes, ultimately cutting adrift its ally -
President Hosni Mubarak - and backing what it hoped would be a moderate
Islamist experiment in popular rule. Washington then hesitated again
when this government was overthrown by the Egyptian armed forces, with
Field Marshal Sisi at their head. The Obama administration refused to
condemn this take-over as a military coup, though it did freeze a
significant quantity of US aid. Relations between Cairo and Washington
are bumpy to say the least.
Lubricating this relationship with some weaponry, for which by all accounts it will actually get paid, makes for good business as well.
But while Russia may be back as a player in the Middle East it would perhaps be wrong to see this as a return to the world of some 30 years ago. The US, for all its problems in the region, remains a key player. Russia probably cannot afford to match the largesse dished out as US military aid, and those paying for Egypt's new hardware - especially the Saudis - would not want a complete breach between Cairo and Washington.
US military support is written in to the DNA of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, a triangular relationship that has considerable weight independent of the broader climate between Cairo and Washington.
Russia too is not the Soviet Union. It is no superpower and has less to offer Cairo. But this Moscow visit enables the man who may soon be Egypt's elected leader to make a point; to show that Washington is not the only game in town and that up to a point Cairo has choices and friends elsewhere.
Labels: Defence, Egypt, Islamists, Israel, Russia, Security, United States
posted by Pieface @ Thursday, February 13, 2014
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