Impasse?
"Poland has been there for the United States, and today, as the transatlantic community confronts Russia's unacceptable aggression against Poland's neighbour, Ukraine, a sovereign and independent state, we have a solemn obligation in the framework of NATO to reassure Poland of our security guarantee."
Stephen Mull, U.S. ambassador to Poland
The
first American troops arrive at the airport in Swidwin, Poland on April
23, 2014, after Washington said it was sending a force of 600 to the
Baltic states as the crisis over Ukraine deepens. (photo credit:
AFP/Janek Skarzynski)
"There is no reason not to believe that the Americans are running the show."It all comes down then, to a simple matter of interpretation. The international community is convinced that Moscow has defied international law in exploiting a split within the Ukrainian civilian population, with the eastern and southern portion of the country hosting ethnic Russians opting for closer ties with Russia and the rest of Ukraine comprised mostly of ethnic Ukrainians resistant to Russian domination.
"Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation."
"If our interests, our legitimate interests, the interests of Russians have been attacked directly, like they were in South Ossetia for example, I do not see any other way but to respond in accordance with international law."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergiy Lavrov
By surreptitiously albeit clumsily infiltrating Ukraine with members of the Russian military posing as "pro-Russian" Ukrainians, inciting to defiance of the non-elected interim provisional government with the removal of Moscow's approved president, Vladimir Putin engineered a secessionist movement that enabled him to react to a 'referendum' inviting Russian intervention and expropriation of Ukraine territory.
With the happy knowledge that Ukraine is not part of NATO and therefore not making it likely that the West would physically seek to interfere in the affairs of two closely aligned eastern European countries that share a common heritage, culture and wartime experience during two world wars, Russia engaged in its deception and defied interference by claiming it was simply reclaiming territory that was historically its own.
Its dire threats against Ukraine for betraying their close relationship of trade, manufacturing and cultural exchanges has resulted in Ukraine being pushed further toward total economic breakdown. Moscow has charged that a financially feeble Ukraine owes it tens of billions in gas fees alone. It has disrupted trade between the two, even though Russia is hugely dependent on Ukraine for critical manufactured military parts. And it has imposed an 80% increase in the charge for gas.
The Kremlin's machinations did not stop with the annexation of Crimea. Vladimir Putin figures why not go for broke? If Crimea was such an easy take, why not the industrial heartland of the country as well, since ethnic Russians abound in eastern and southern Ukraine too, and the populace, at least a middling proportion of it, can be urged to become as restive as the Crimeans succumbed to. The assemblage of tens of thousands of troops at the ready on the border represents a huge incentive.
And NATO is left to hush the fears of Poland, Estonia and the other Baltic States that it is there for them, and will protect them from Russia's further expansionist plans. Crimea is gone, and hopes that the rest of Ukraine will remain intact teeter on the brink of collapse, since an irredentist Moscow is enjoying its latest period of displaying the power of a nation willing to resume its past role as a super power even if the resources to do so are absent.
U.S. paratroopers arriving as a deterrent to Russian ambitions, allaying the fears of allies ups the ante somewhat and points to an eventual impasse. The "persistent presence" of American troops in the region with a company-sized contingent of well-armed and super-power-backed denial of effortless hegemonic land grabs by a president who appears to have gone somewhat lunatic, may serve to temper the times of conquest.
And perhaps Russia will, in the final analysis, see the reason in listening to the warnings issuing from the White House through John Kerry who "urged Russia to tone down escalatory rhetoric, engage diplomatically in the east with the OSCE and Ukrainian government, and issue public statements calling for those occupying buildings to disarm and stand down in exchange for amnesty".
Such sane endings have occurred in the past, after all.
Labels: Aggression, Conflict, EU, NATO, Russia, U.S., Ukraine
posted by Pieface @ Friday, April 25, 2014
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