Stepping Back From the Precipice?
"We had hoped that Putin might have helped us and that hope is now diminished."
"Now we have to manage ourselves, along with Lugansk, Kharkiv and Odesa. We have to separate from Western Ukraine."
Svetlana Petrova, Donetsk
"Putin has his problems and we have ours."
Vladimir, Donetsk coalworker
"I am for Ukraine, but not with the current government. Most of the miners think as I do."
Alexei, Donetsk coalworker
 |
| Denis Pushilin (C), chairman of the so-called interim government of People's Republic of Donetsk, holds a press conference in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk on May 8, 2014 (AFP Photo/Genya Savilov) |
A new Pew Research poll released on Thursday gave evidence of wan support for independence. Earlier public opinion surveys had found that a mere 30 percent of those polled in the region had any wish to break off from Kyiv. There is hesitance about the current government, but not continued allegiance to Kyiv. Entirely unlike the majority support seen in the referendum that took place in Crimea with its abundance of ethnic and pro-Russian citizens.
The pro-Moscow secessionists in rejecting a recommendation from Russian President Vladimir Putin to withhold staging a referendum, may have surprised some; to manage a pause while the May 25 elections take place was rejected out of hand as the separatists voted unanimously to proceed on Sunday to determine whether the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Donetsk should separate from Ukraine. But Mr. Putin had skillfully set the stage he now urges its players to vacate.
At the urging of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe through talks with Switzerland's President Didier Burkhalter in Moscow as head of the OSCE, that the ballot be postponed to permit talks on Ukraine's future to take place, Mr. Putin agreed to support that initiative. Russia is, after all, a member of the OSCE. But each of the 79 self-elected members of the Donetsk council summarily rejected their idol's advice.
Donetsk and Lugansk will proceed with their referenda.
No one has any wish among the separatists to speak ill of the Russian president who has led them to believe it is his wish as well as theirs to embrace them into the greater Russian federation. Perhaps it's possible that his ardour cooled somewhat, given cautionary advice from those within the Kremlin who might be concerned over the enormous cost that will be imposed upon Moscow through supporting and welcoming such a collapsed economy.
To add to Moscow's own fragile economic downturn. They are already committed to furnishing Crimea with infrastructure funding to prop up its failing economy. Additional financial and administrative burdens will bring no joy to Russia, despite the allure of forging that alliance and bringing in additional territory for an expanded hegemonic future.
Kyiv's temporary government is not too terribly impressed with Mr. Putin's new tone of partial appeasement and possible accommodation. His offer to withdraw tens of thousands of Russian troops from Ukraine's eastern border has not impressed Kyiv too much, particularly as NATO has advised it has seen no evidence whatever of such a withdrawal. And they have no reason in any event, to trust him, given his past performance.
No one, not the Ukrainian government, not political experts accustomed to Putin's volatile temperament and explosive decision-making, believes this swift turnabout in attitude. The skeptics have the day, looking at the proverbial olive branch as a crooked staff more likely to thump the nervous heads of Kyiv's authority than to suddenly pose as a supporter of Ukraine's sovereignty.
The panic over the prospect for a civil war has not particularly diminished. Distrust exists on both sides and Mr. Putin's change in attitude viewed as part of some sinister strategy, soon enough to be revealed in full explosive narrative. Firing long-range missiles from submarines and bombers in response to a hypothetical enemy attack, Russia's launching of a major military exercise gave no confidence to a wary Ukraine and NATO.
Fighting continued between Ukrainian forces and separatists under siege in Slavyansk, a town as intransigent as they come, but only in its central portion where the new town authority, self-imposed as usual, insists it represents the will of the people. Sunday's ballot will be flawed in its outcome whatever it happens to be. No scrutineers, no independent oversight. The majority wishing to remain Ukrainian citizens plan to boycott the process.
Eastern Ukraine is so fraught with sharply differentiating views and values that tolerance has given way to violent outbreaks. And it seems as though Ukraine is heading toward a bloody civil war with far-reaching consequences for the Continent and possibly for global security.
Labels: Conflict, Crisis Management, Human Relations, Negotiations, Russia, Secession, Ukraine
posted by Pieface @ Saturday, May 10, 2014
<< Home