generalspeaking

Stuck In Conflict Mode

"We're in full agreement that it is critical for Russia to show in the next hours, literally, that they're moving to help disarm the separatists, to encourage them to disarm ... and to begin to become part of a legitimate process."
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

"Instead of them calling back their mercenaries, even more new, well-equipped and motivated fighters are arriving from the Russian Federation."
"Without that [Russia stopping rebels crossing into Ukraine], we cannot talk about peace. Support the peace plan with deeds, not words, because with these deeds we will stop the killing."
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko

Vladimir Putin is playing his usual darkly sinister game of telling it, but not doing it. He feels rather ill disposed toward Ukraine set on its Western-oriented trajectory, and punishing the country is the sole option he feels justified in pursuing. Why go out of his way to aid Ukraine when there's little in it for Moscow, after all. Ukraine had the opportunity to move closer to Moscow and spurned it. They must now continue to pay the costs for that betrayal.

So while Mr. Poroshenko condemns Russia's failure to help it bring a halt to violence in the rebellious east, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warns the Kremlin it has "hours to act", to save the ceasefire from utter failure. It was, after all, set to expire at the end of this very day. However, Mr. Poroshenko did extend it for another few days; not that anything of value will likely result from that extension. But hope dies hard.

Even while thousands of ethnic Russian Ukrainians are streaming across the border into Russia claiming that the government of Ukraine has betrayed them, Ukraine's President expressed his dismay over the rebels using the ceasefire to rearm and regroup. The pro-Russian rebels shot down yet another Ukrainian army helicopter killing another nine servicemen, in a demonstration of just how valuable they've held the ceasefire to be.

The very day the ceasefire was set to expire was the day that Ukraine signed a deal on closer trade ties with the European Union, in Brussels. It was this agreement that former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych had rejected, that caused the backlash removing him from power and unleashing the reaction in eastern Ukraine, leading to Russia annexing Crimea after dispatching Russian agents to covertly agitate for separation.

Should the Kremlin continue to refuse to defuse the violence in Ukraine that they are themselves wholly responsible for, several European countries along with the United States threaten new sanctions against Russia. Access to oil and gas technology may be among those issues that will crop up, reflecting a kind of reverse energy pain contrasting with the situation on gasflow from Russian to Ukraine.

Labels: Aggression, Conflict, Russia, Secession, Ukraine

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, June 28, 2014