Wednesday, December 10, 2014

The New Afghanistan

"The time has to come at some point and they have always proven the more you push them and force them to be more responsible they end up coming through. I believe they will be fine."
"It's been a hell of a year. Now everyone wants this to be in the rearview mirror and of course we still don't have the right guys in the right places and that just causes people to not know what to do."
"I don't know if I'm pessimistic or optimistic. The fact that we are in less places, the fact that there are less of us as a coalition, is obviously concerning."
Lt. Gen. Joseph Anderson, U.S. military, Kabul, Afghanistan
The ISAF color guard marches during the ISAF Joint Command (IJC) and XVIII Airborne Corps colors casing ceremony, Dec 8, 2014 at North Kabul Afghanistan International Airport, Afghanistan. (Photo: ISAF/Public Domain)

The last U.S. general leading combat operations in Afghanistan took part in the ceremonies as the U.S., ISAF and NATO formally ended their combat mission in Afghanistan. That of course, represents thirteen years of protecting the Afghans from their former Islamist rulers, the Taliban. The Taliban, famously, have rebounded. Even now they're a threat to those coalitions troops who remain.

And they are awaiting full decampment of foreign forces for the opportunity to flood back into full governing authority.

Now that the old mission has wrapped up, the new mission begins, Operation Resolute Support, where the U.S. military, with 10,800 soldiers to be left behind in Afghanistan will have the job of advising the Afghan military. The use of combat forces has been authorized by the U.S. administration to target al-Qaeda leaders and the Taliban. Air support will be offered to help the Afghan forces.

According to General Anderson, Afghan forces are capable, if properly motivated, of meeting the challenges before them. He did not mention the presumed mode of proper motivation. Which some might assume would represent the responsibility to safeguard the country and its people from further depredation by the Taliban. Pride in country and loyalty to the well-being of its people and the future of the country, that kind of thing.

General Anderson also pointed to the record-high Afghan forces' casualties of the past year. And the astounding desertion rates that cannot be sustained within a disciplined, reliable military. And the fact that the Afghan national police and the army haven't found themselves in collaborative form. Over five thousand security forces have been killed in the past year, more than the entire coalition death toll since the 2001 invasion.

As the death toll rises the soldiers and police are increasingly reluctant to leave the safety of their bases. Allied with that misery, Taliban attacks have continued into winter when such fighting typically has seen a hiatus with the withdrawal of the Taliban fighting forces until spring and a renewed assault season.

The new government has not yet been fully installed, as a result of a political impasse. Which has impacted on the military and police bureaucracy. But the new president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, has committed to fighting corruption, and to a new era of merit-based appointments.

As for the high casualty rates among Afghan police and soldiers, the general has a response: The police are not as observant of safety procedures as they should be. "They are trained, but nine times out of ten they don't wear their kit or follow proper procedures. That's why they get whacked more."


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