"Caliph Ibrahim" of the Islamic State
"The organization's coherence does not rely on him. Baghdadi is one of collective leadership and behind him stand a series of figures who undoubtedly have a lifetime of experience in intelligence and violence."
Professor Toby Dodge, director, Middle East Centre, London School of Economics
The caliph is dead, bring out the ashcloth and begin ululating unspeakable grief at the intolerable loss to Islamist jihad. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder of the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham appears to be on life support, as life itself may be ebbing from his shattered body. It appears his triumph as caliph of Islamic State has been cut dramatically short as a result of a U.S. airstrike in March that killed three of his companions near the town of Al-Baaj, 145 km west of Mosul.
His injury is hugely severe, since it relates to spinal damage requiring continuous treatment to keep the man functioning, but barely. He is thought to be quite incapacitated, and as a result, no longer in command of ISIS. Given the likely seriousness of Baghdadi's condition, it isn't likely he will recover. Leaving the transfer of power within ISIS of paramount importance. His deputy, Abu Alaa al-Afri is considered to be his replacement.
The 44-year-old Baghdadi had been in American custody in southern Iraq in 2004. He survived that experience as well as the 2007 surge when an additional 30,000 U.S. military was brought to bear against the al-Qaeda network in Iraq. Syria's later descent into civil war invited Baghdadi to remove to Syria with his militias where he transformed his organization into a larger, battle-hardened force competing with, and finally disowning al-Qaeda.
In 2013 he captured oilfields in eastern Syria and used their proceeds for his war chest, in the process transforming ISIS into the wealthiest terrorist group the Middle East has ever seen. And he infiltrated the Sunni Arab northern and central portions of Iraq, then took Mosul, with its population of 1.5-million, frightening off the Iraqi military to take possession of the largest urban centre in northern Iraq. In the process attracting no end of foreign fighters eager to make common cause with success.
Focused on preserving himself Caph Baghdadi made his single public appearance last year in July at the Noori Mosque in Mosul where he declared himself "Caliph Ibrahim" leader of the new Islamic State. Surrounded by hardened veterans of the Iraqi army and intelligence service of the Saddam Hussein Baathist era, the core values of ISIS are Saddam Hussein's himself, refreshed and re-engineered.
Survivors of Saddam's regime allied with Sunni Islamic zealots; ISIS has as its goal the overthrow of Iraq's Shiite-led government, recognized as a puppet of Iran, to enable the restoration of Sunni supremacy in Baghdad. Sunni Arabs comprise about 20 percent of the Iraqi population. While little is known about his potential successor, Abu Alaa al-Afri, the alliance of pragmatism between the Islamists and the Baathists may not remain firmly bonded.
Ironically, the Iranians fighting alongside Shia militias and the Iraqi military, inform all new recruits that ISIS is backed by the United States and the Israeli Mossad, trained by them, armed by them, inciting them to destroy Shiite command of Iraq and Iran. Even while a combination of U.S. airstrikes and Kurdish resistance has prevented ISIS from capturing the town of Kobane in northern Syria.
Even as Iraqi Kurdish forces advance north of Mosul, cutting links between the city and ISIS-held territory in Syria. If they realize success, Mosul may yet be recaptured.
ISIS now appears to have passed its peak powers. With Baghdadi absent from the scene the movement he created may be on the wane. Unless it is just too much to hope for. And with the cautionary note that in its absence, the vacuum will soon enough be filled by yet another iteration of violent Islamist jihadists.
Labels: Atrocities, Conflict, Iraq, Islamic State, Islamism, Shiite, Sunni, Syria
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, May 05, 2015
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