Saturday, May 16, 2015

Convincing? Prove It!

"[Gulf leaders were not expected to] sign on the bottom line [approving the security cooperation framework on counterterrorism] but did agree] that a comprehensive, verifiable solution that fully addresses the regional and international concerns about Iran's nuclear program is in the security interests of the international community, including our Gulf Cooperation Council partners."
"The U.S. would join the Gulf Cooperation Council nations] to deter and confront any external threat to any GCC state's territorial integrity."
U.S. President Barack Obama, Camp David, MD

"[Arab leaders were] assured that the objective is to deny Iran the ability to obtain a nuclear weapon; [that all pathways to such a weapon would be closed]."
"We don't know if the Iranians will accept the terms they need to accept."
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir
The Associated Press
President Barack Obama, center, with Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, left, and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, right, as he makes a statement to members of the media after meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders and delegations at Camp David in Maryland, Thursday, May 14, 2015.  (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has stated its unequivocal decision to match the Islamic Republic of Iran weapon-for-nuclear-weapon, if a break-out does occur. Effectively then, the U.S. administration's negotiations with Iran, should they fail, and realistically over a ten-year period that will be inevitable in any event at the very latest; this failed initiative will have led to an arms race for atomic weapons in the most volatile, dysfunctional, tribal, sectarian geography on Earth.

Ten years from now, at the very latest, President Obama's legacy will be viewed with amazed revulsion, in any event. The kind of revulsion, in fact, that mandated that though the Gulf States attended the invitation-only gathering taking place at Camp David, for the most part relatively lower-level state representatives took part in the proceedings; it was Saudi Arabia's deliberate snub to a former mentor-ally that had abandoned the friendship.

President Obama is a patient man of great forbearance, and forgiving in his nature, understanding the frailty of human nature, his own included, obviously. He has pledged America's "ironclad commitment" to soothe the nervous tension afflicting Persian Gulf nations in the shadow of the Islamic Republic of Iran's obvious intentions with respect to its nuclear file, which it declares no power on Earth capable of diminishing its right to achievement.

America has now pledged itself to complete support and increase of its security cooperation with the Gulf on counterterrorism, maritime security, cybersecurity and ballistic missile defence. A pledge that runs completely counter to its actions and activities relating to its negotiations with Iran, a terrorist-sponsoring country threatening to annihilate another Middle East nation, and actively conspiring complete Shiite command of Sunni-majority Middle East.

"Let me underscore", President Obama stated with placatory emphasis that reality has negated under this administration, "the United States keeps our commitments". His aim clearly to convince the Gulf States they need have no fear that should Iran gain the international sanctions relief it seeks, the country would embark, newly flush with cash, on an expanded agenda of regional aggression.

Even with its financially straitened circumstances, under pressure of ongoing sanctions yet to be relaxed, Iran has negotiated to have its proxy Houthi Shiite militias gain control of Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, driving out the Saudi-(and U.S.-) backed government of Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. As far as Riyadh is concerned, Iran and its proxies were coming dangerously close to Saudi territory.

"For over a decade, Saudi Arabia stayed silent as Iran interfered in Arab affairs. Iran’s presence in Yemen was the red line", said a Saudi palace insider. Just a day earlier an Iranian naval patrol boat fired on a commercial ship flagged in Singapore in the Persian Gulf. While an American official countered that it resulted over a financial dispute involving an Iranian oil platform that had sustained damage, this did not satisfy those present at the conference.

It represented "exactly the type of challenge" the Gulf nations focus on, admitted Ben Rhodes, Obama's deputy national security adviser. "The Iranians should not be allowed to get away with it", remarked Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, in his turn. Two heads of state; the emirs of Qatar and Kuwait turned up at Camp David, while Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain dispatched influential, but lower-level representatives.

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