generalspeaking

Wishful Thinking/Unfortunate Realities

It seems that in some quarters there are thoughts that with the gains of al-Nusra and the Islamic State militias, Syria's fall to Sunni forces is inevitable, and the regime of Bashar al-Assad's days are increasingly limited. On the regime's side there is the not inconsiderable al-Quds forces of the Iranian Republican Guard and Iran's Lebanese Shiite proxy, Hezbollah, leading the Syrian military into conflicts with the Sunni Islamists and winning many of those battles.

The Syrian rebels have won some recent weeks' achievements, giving hope that the Syrian dictator and his allies will be incapable of reversing their recent setbacks. The rebel coalition of Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) has won ground in northern Syria in recent weeks from regime forces. Idlib City fell at the end of March and since then additional wins have fallen to the Sunni alliance, like the town of Jisr al-Shughour near the Syrian-Turkish border.

Jabhat al-Nusra combined with Ahral al-Sham are prepared to launch attacks in Latakia Province and the Hama area against the regime. The offensive that brought such hope to the regime launched in February with Hezbollah and Iranian Shiites to drive rebels from south of Damascus failed as the rebels scored a series of wins in weeks that followed. The last border crossing between Syria and Jordan fell to the rebels and Sunni jihadists.


The Syria regime suffered another setback with the firing of two of its security chiefs. Saudi Arabia and Turkey reached a cooperation agreement in their attempts to dislodge Bashar al-Assad. There has been greater cooperation between the rebel units, and in the south Western and Sunni support has aided the Southern Front. But now, Hezbollah has routed Sunni insurgents from the Qalamoun Mountains; the rugged range near the Lebanese border where the yellow flag of Hezbollah now flies.

This Saturday, May 9, 2015 photo shows a general view of the Syrian border town of Assal al-Ward that is held by government forces, Syria. Hezbollah fighters have been spearheading an attack along with President Bashar Assad's troops against Sunni insurgents in Syria's rugged mountainous region of Qalamoun. On Saturday, Hezbollah fighters showed several local journalists and an Associated Press team positions they recently captured in Qalamoun. (AP Photo/Bassem Mroue) (The Associated Press)

It was until just recently an al-Qaeda stronghold. And it counterbalances a unified insurgent assault in the northwest. While Hezbollah is jubilant, in Lebanon there are concerns that Hezbollah's Iran-assigned battlefield assistance to Syria will serve to get Lebanon entangled once again in Syria's sphere; at the present time, the violence that is wracking Syria. And which threatens to bring Sunni reprisals into Lebanese territory once again.

Syria remains hugely dependent on Hezbollah and Iran for its ability to resist the backlash of the Sunni Islamists and the Syrian rebels against the Shiite Alawite power play. Internally, Assad has been dependent on the support of a limited section of Syria's population; the Alawite minority consisting of 12 percent of the country's population. But even its own sectarian community is tiring of the conflict that has brought ruin to the country.


Syria's major trump card is Iran's resolve to continue supporting President Assad; its regional proxies have been called to duty, and it has deployed its own assets in recognition of the regime's obvious manpower shortfall. Iraqi Shiite militias, local Alawite irregulars, and volunteer Shiites from as far as Afghanistan, along with Hezbollah fighters have bolstered the regime to enable it to counter advances by its Sunni adversaries.


Foreign fighters are still arriving to take the place of a diminishing pool of fighters from within Syria itself. The state is incapable of mounting enough fighters of its own to defend the regime. Without the Iranian assistance the conflict would long since have ended for Bashar al-Assad. The Islamic Republic of Iran still needs Syria in its Shiite crescent of domination and to ensure that this link remains intact, Iran remains determined to defend Assad.
Assad, for his part, understands that at this point in the conflict he cannot hold the entire geography, so he has resigned himself for the time being to seeing parts of the country in rebel and Sunni Islamist hands, while defending those parts of the country that are vital to his continued rule. Iran too recognizes it can dispense with the entire geography to preserve its vital interests; the contiguous area linking Iraq with Lebanon and Syria is the focal point. Until and unless it comes under threat, desperation is at bay.

Should the P5+1-negotiated nuclear agreement produce a final deal both sides can live with on June 30, Assad will benefit hugely, not only Iran. With Iran's insistence on immediate sanctions relief, freeing up billions into Iranian coffers, a significant portion will be allocated to the Syrian conflict and Bashar al-Assad's relief.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Conflict, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamic State, Shiite, Sunni, Syria

posted by Pieface @ Sunday, May 10, 2015