Monday, February 23, 2026

Reducing the Nature of Nuclear Proliferation to the Status of State Profit

"[The documents raise] concerns that the Trump administration has not carefully considered the proliferation risks posed by the proposed nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia or the precedent this agreement may set." 
"[The document contends that reaching a deal with the kingdom] will advance the national security interests of the United States, breaking with the failed policies of inaction and indecision that our competitors have capitalized on to disadvantage American industry and diminish the United States standing globally in this critical sector."
"Nuclear cooperation can be a positive mechanism for upholding nonproliferation norms and increasing transparency, but the devil is in the details."
"This suggests that once the bilateral safeguards agreement is in place, it will open the door for Saudi Arabia to acquire uranium enrichment technology or capabilities — possibly even from the United States."
"Even with restrictions and limits, it seems likely that Saudi Arabia will have a path to some type of uranium enrichment or access to knowledge about enrichment."
"It behooves Congress [to provide a check on the administration's power to strike an agreement with the kingdom and] consider not just the implications for Saudi Arabia, but also the precedent that this deal will set, and vigorously examine the terms of the proposed 123 Agreement." 
Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy, Arms Control Association, Washington 
 
"[If Iran obtains the bomb], we will have to get one".
[A weapon would be necessary] for security reasons, and for balancing power in the Middle East, but we don't want to see that." 
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon
<p>President Donald Trump (R) shows Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia the "Presidential Walk of Fame" as they walk on the colonnade at the White House on November 18, 2025 in Washington, DC</p>
President Donald Trump (R) shows Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia the "Presidential Walk of Fame" as they walk on the colonnade at the White House on November 18, 2025 in Washington, DC   Getty Images
 
It could be done differently. There is the example of the United Arab Emirates neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which signed a '123 agreement' with the United States. With that agreement by the UAE and the U.S., with South Korean assistance the Barakah nuclear power plant will be built. The United Arab Emirates however, unlike Saudi Arabia, expressed no interest in achieving enrichment as part of its agreement. Instead it chose to opt for nuclear power generation for energy use, signing an agreement considered to be the 'gold standard' for nations seeking atomic power, according to nonproliferation experts. 
 

However, it seems the Trump administration has decided that Saudi Arabia could after all have some form of uranium enrichment under the proposed agreement with the U.S. as suggested by congressional documents. Raising proliferation concerns by arms control groups, in the midst of an atomic standoff between the Islamic Republic of Iran which has always denied its nuclear program would have a military component, now facing off against an American ultimatum to surrender all current and future prospects of nuclear research and production.

Any spinning centrifuges within Saudi Arabia, warn non-proliferation experts, could lead to a potential weapons program for the kingdom. A certain likelihood, given past assertions by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince whose past statements were emphatic that should Tehran achieve the production of atomic bombs, he would pursue a similar program for Saudi Arabia. As it is, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact last year following Israel's attack on Qatar targeting Hamas officials.

Pakistan's own expertise in producing atomic bombs for its own arsenal could certainly ensure that under that mutual defence pact, a sharing of nuclear know-how could consolidate that pact. At the time of the signing, Pakistan's defence minister said as much when he declared that his country's nuclear program "will be made available" to Saudi Arabia should it be required. A declaration that some view as a threat meant to draw Israel's attention that it will not long remain the Middle East's sole nuclear-armed state.
 
The Trump administration, it seems, is aspiring for 20 nuclear business deals with world nations, one that includes Saudi Arabia, a deal that could be valued in billions for U.S. coffers. Perhaps the administration is that short-sighted it is incapable of looking beyond the wealth it could accrue to itself, to the situation as it appears to the non-proliferation crowd; lighting a match in the gas-saturated environment of the Middle East where conflicts are constant and a conflagration of immense significance could be enabled in an area where tribal and sectarian conflict and bloodshed are business as usual.
 
The United States views with its jaundiced eye competitors such as China, France, Russia and South Korea among those leading nations selling nuclear power plant technology. While the draft deal            would in theory have the U.S. and Saudi Arabia enter safeguard agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency to include oversight of the "most proliferation-sensitive areas of potential nuclear co-operation", listing enrichment, fuel fabrication and reprocessing as potential areas of concern, there is the sobering example of years of fruitless negotiation with Tehran. 
 
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Workers on a construction site at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant in November 2019. Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
 

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Sunday, February 09, 2025

Living With The Elusive Closure of 9/11

"Saudi officials have long denied any involvement in the plot, emphasizing that they were at war with al-Qaida well before 2001."
"They have also leaned on earlier U.S. assessments, especially the one-page summary of a joint FBI-CIA report that was publicly released by the Bush administration in 2005. That summary said there was no evidence that “the Saudi Government or members of the Saudi royal family knowingly provided support” for the attacks."
"Pages of the report that were declassified in 2022 are more critical of the Saudi role, describing extensive Saudi funding for Islamic charities linked to al-Qaida and the reluctance of senior Saudi officials to cooperate with U.S. counterterrorism efforts."
"The plaintiffs’ account still leaves significant gaps in the story of how two known al-Qaida operatives, Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar, avoided CIA surveillance overseas, flew into Los Angeles under their own names and then — despite speaking no English and ostensibly knowing no one — settled in Southern California to start preparing for the attacks."
"Exactly whom in the Saudi government Bayoumi was working for remains unclear. [Omar al-Bayoumi, a middle-aged Saudi graduate student in San Diego who was the central figure in the hijackers’ support network.] FBI reports describe him as a “cooptee,” or part-time agent, of the Saudi intelligence service, but say he reported to the kingdom’s powerful former ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin Sultan. (Lawyers for the Saudi government have continued to repeat Bayoumi’s earlier denials that he ever had “any assignment” for Saudi intelligence.)"
Pro Publica
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Evidence gathered on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the 9/11 mastermind, contained in documents render detailed views of the man's involvement in the massive attacks that took place in New York, Washington and the aborted attack that ended in a plane crash in a field in Pennsylvania. The destruction of the World Trade Towers in twin plane-missile suicide attacks and of the Pentagon exploded a shock wave of disbelief at the scale, audacity and brutality launched against those symbols of American pride and power. 
 
Newly released are details of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's interaction with the hijackers who committed the September 11, 2001 attacks.
 
Mohammed's singular statements over the years, phone records and other documents of coordination between himself and the hijackers were summarized as evidence contained in documents unsealed this week. Videos as part of al-Qaeda's schedule for the attacks and summaries of the attacks contained simulations of the four airliners' flight that fateful day. Other details were withheld from public view. 

 Photographs and death certificates of 2,976 people who died on the attacks of the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and the Pennsylvania field of the fourth airliner which smashed to the ground when passengers rallied to take command of the plane from the suicide hijackers, are to be presented as well. Military prosecutors' case against Mohammed who conceived of and executed much of al-Qaeda's attack are to be included.
 
The framework of the military prosecutors' case against Mohammed is part of a plea agreement the Defence Department is striving to roll back in court. Prosecutors' summaries and videos included in planning for the attacks saw Mohammed and two co-defendants agreeing to a plea deal with military prosecutors to plead guilty in the attack in trade of their life sentences. 
 
Suing for the plea bargain to be unsealed is a consortium of legacy media including the Associated Press, New York Times, National Public Radio, Washington Post, Fox News, NBC and Univision.
 
Additional revelations respecting greater details of the attack are likely yet to be revealed. Prosecutors, defence and a senior Pentagon official overseeing the cases at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba have agreed to a hearing to allow them to make public evidence compiled against the three defendants, linked to address complaints from victims' families that a plea bargain would restrain evidence from being fully revealed.
 
The deal had been negotiated for over two years  under government auspices by military prosecutors, defence attorneys and Guantanamo officials. Negotiations represented an effort to finally bring a resolution to the 9/11 case. Pretrial hearings since the attacks have remained static for the over two decades that have since passed.
 
Closer to the time in question, then-Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin took intercessionary steps in an attempt to void the plea agreement. His position was that waiving the potential of the death penalty in an attack of such magnitude and grave consequences represented a decision that should be the province of defence secretaries. 
 
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In this photo reviewed by U.S. military officials, flags fly at half-staff at Camp Justice, Aug. 29, 2021, in Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, Cuba. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

"Almost immediately after the 9/11 attacks, FBI agents identified Bayoumi as having helped the two young Saudis rent an apartment, set up a bank account and take care of other needs. Bayoumi, then 42, was arrested on Sept. 21, 2001, in Birmingham, England, where he had moved to continue graduate studies in business. Scotland Yard terrorism investigators questioned him for a week in London as two FBI agents monitored the sessions."
"After pressure from Saudi diplomats, Bayoumi was freed by the British authorities without being charged. U.S. officials did not try to have him extradited."
"In 2017, the FBI concluded that Bayoumi was, in fact, a Saudi spy — although it kept that finding secret until 2022, after President Joe Biden ordered agencies to declassify more documents from the 9/11 files."
Pro Publica

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Tuesday, April 16, 2024

To Strike Back : When and Where

 

"We are looking ahead."
"We are considering our steps, and this launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles and UAVs into the territory of the State of Israel will be met with a response." 
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi
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Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system is seen intercepting rockets launched from the Gaza Strip | Source: Reuters
 
"Iran is a nation that endorses terrorism, and the world should have curtailed it much earlier."
"[Saudi air defences automatically intercept] any suspicious entity [that enters its airspace, which could refer to attacks from Yemeni Houthis, another of Iran's terror proxies]."
"We confront every suspicious object that enters Saudi airspace. This is a matter of sovereignty."
"Two days before the attack, Iranian officials briefed counterparts from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries on the outlines and timing of their plan for the large-scale strikes on Israel so that those countries could safeguard airspace. Information that was passed along to the U.S. allowing Washington and Israel crucial advance warning."
Anonymous Saudi royal family source
Monday Israel's war cabinet discussed a few potential military responses to the Islamic Republic's Saturday/Sunday attack on Israel's airspace with over 300 drones and missiles, some 99% of which were reportedly shot down by the U.S., Israel, France, the U.K., Jordan and Saudi Arabia before they could enter Israel's airspace. Each of the possible responses under discussion were designed to inflict a meaningful response to the Iranian regime, while carefully avoiding expansion leading to a regional war.

The war cabinet was mindful of the pressure exerted by U.S. President Joe Biden and the diplomatic necessity of selecting an option that would not induce the Biden administration to block its performance. Prime Minister Netanyahu had been informed by President Biden on Saturday not to expect Washington to support a retaliatory attack by Israel. "You got a win. Take the win", said Biden. 

Yoav Gallant, a war cabinet member and Defence Minister, informed his American counterpart the following evening that there was no choice for the Jewish state but to respond to the unprecedented drone and missile strikes on Israel in response to an alleged airstrike by Israel that hit Damascus, killing an elite Quds Force commander. Gallant emphasized to U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin that the reality of ballistic missiles fired at Israel without repercussions was not acceptable.
 
Israel - Iran attack
Gilad Erdan, Israel's UN ambassador, showed a video of drones heading toward Israel to the United Nations Security Council on Sunday. CHARLY TRIBALLEAU via Getty Images
 
In the final analysis the war cabinet had no option but to endorse a strike back, remaining divided on the scope and timing of their response. Minister-without-Portfolio Benny Gantz vowed to "exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us". Comprised of Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz, as well as three observers, the war cabinet meant to reconvene Tuesday.

Following the call with Biden, it was reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu set aside the option of a swift strike on Iranian territory; a decision that resulted in the Iranian attacks having "caused relatively minor damage", which seems highly unlikely, since an aggressive act of war of this dimension could not and would not be set aside as immaterial by any other nation on Earth. 

Saudi Arabia accused Iran of responsibility for the Gaza conflict with the intention of undermining progress in a normalization agreement between Riyadh and Jerusalem. A royal family source revealed that Tehran's promotion of terrorism led Riyadh to play a role in thwarting the drone and missile attack that occurred on Saturday night. The Saudis shared intelligence with the United States and Israel that helped to counter the Iranian attack. 

Intelligence was also shared by the Emiratis who had forged diplomatic ties with Jerusalem as part of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Initially cautious around sharing information, Arab governments feared direct involvement in the conflict that would leave them vulnerable to Iranian reprisal. Despite which Riyadh and Abu Dhabi moved forward following discussions with the U.S.

As well, Amman agreed to permit the U.S. and other countries to fly warplanes through its airspace, intercepting Iranian missiles and drones, while the Jordanians themselves assisted in shooting them down.

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Parts of a missile launched from a missile are landed in Marj Al-Hamam area, during Iran's airstrikes against Israel, in Amman, Jordan on April 14, 2024. Anadolu via Getty Images


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Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Crossing the Border From Yemen To Saudi Arabia -- Don't!


"The shooting went on and on."
"I didn't even notice I was shot but when I tried to get up and walk, part of my leg was not with me."
"I went to Saudi Arabia because I wanted to improve my family's life but what I hoped for didn't materialize. Now my parents do everything for me."
21-year-old Mustafa Soufia Mohammed   
 
"They beat us, killed some and took those who survived to the hospital. The bodies of those killed were left scattered on the ground." 
"I was shot between my thighs near my groin, and my legs are paralyzed now. I can't even walk. I thought I would die." 
Ibsaa, Ethiopian migrant
A migrant with an injured leg lies on a hospital bed in the Yemeni city of Saada
Ethiopian migrants say they were shot when they tried to cross from Yemen into Saudi Arabia BBC
"What we documented are essentially mass killings."
"People described sites that sound like killing fields - bodies strewn all over the hillside."
"We say a minimum of 655 [killed], but it's likely to be thousands. We have factually demonstrated that the abuses are widespread and systematic and may amount to a crime against humanity."
Human Rights Watch report's lead author, Nadia Hardman

"I saw people killed in a way I have never imagined."
"Immediately after we arrived [at the border], they [Saudi Border guards] fired on us."
"A lot of people were dying. In a group of 200 migrants only fifty people survived."
"It wasn't a bullet they were shooting. It was thrown from the back of a car, like a bomb. It kills a lot of people. They fired on a lot of people."
Dahabo, 20, economic migrant
From personal accounts of migrants crossing from Yemen toward the Saudi Arabian border, rockets were fired by Saudi border guards, according to a newly published investigation. Fleeing turmoil in the Horn of Africa, hordes of migrants were shot with rifles and blown up with rocket-launcher-like weaponry as they attempted to cross by land into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Border guards were charged with forcing teenagers to rape other migrants. Victims were forced to select which of their own limbs they preferred to be shot in, according to testimony evaluated from 42 survivors that Human Rights Watch collated and published in their report. It is a graphic, 79-page report claiming that Saudi border guards "systematically fired mortar and rocket launcher type weapons" on Ethiopian migrants.

The situation is one of a background of neighbouring Yemen's civil war overlapping into Saudi Arabia, Houthi terrorists, funded by the Islamic Republic of Iran to transform Yemen into a Shi'ite stronghold aligned with Iran, just as Syria, Iraq and Lebanon have become political satellites of Iran in its plan to subjugate the Sunni majority in the Middle East to Iran's quest to become its regional powerhouse. Saudi Arabia formed a coalition of other Gulf states to intervene in Yemen to restore its rightful government.

An offensive stalemate was reached, the coalition unable to unseat the Houthi rebels from the half of Yemen they took by military force. The Houthis have attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure on occasion and the war in Yemen grinds on. Simultaneously a surge in migration into Saudi Arabia has taken place at its border with Yemen. Although the Houthi leadership denies Saudi claims that they have been collaborating with human smuggler groups to guide migrants into Saudi Arabia, this is what is occurring.

The ageless hostilities between between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the latter believing it should control Medina and Mecca, not Saudi Arabia, came to a surprising pause when the two countries recently signed an agreement presumably of regional cooperation. Despite which there has been no pause or cessation of the Iran-sponsored Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The report issued by Human Rights Watch notes that the Houthis in Yemen were aiding in the smuggling of mostly Ethiopian migrants arriving by boat from Africa to the border with Saudi Arabia. It was also outlined that "widespread" attacks by Saudi Arbia on the migrants have been a reality since 2022, their deaths numbering in the hundreds, potentially in the thousands; under international law, a crime against humanity.
 
Migrants look at covered bodies during a burial on the Saudi-Yemeni border
The report says it is impossible estimate how many migrants have been killed along the border   Social Media
 
There have been overtures to Saudi Arabia for years, prosecuted mostly by the United States, for a new alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel, to become a partner in the Abraham Accords, an initiative for regional peace formalized at long last, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia has continued to balk at that commitment. While the Islamic Republic of Iran continually threatens Israel with destruction, its decades-long goal of nuclear devices geared to that threat.

The issue of Saudi Arabia and other gulf states forming closer relations with China is one that perturbs the United States and its allies. Human Rights Watch has shown graphic video footage and photographs of survivors of Saudi attacks complete with atrocious injuries to the limbs and faces of the migrants. The migrants' injuries appear consistent with those sustained by explosive ammunition and gunshots, according to consulted weapons experts.

Human Rights Watch declares the most recent attacks killing migrants "appear to be a deliberate escalation in both the number and manner of targeted killings" that have taken place near the Yemen border since 2014. Through its research the human rights group used satellite imagery to locate large numbers of grave sites where victims were buried following the massacres.
"Saudi officials are killing hundreds of migrants and asylum seekers in this remote border area out of view of the rest of the world."
"Spending billions buying up professional golf, football clubs, and major entertainment events to improve the Saudi image should not deflect attention from these horrendous crimes."
Nadia Hardman, researcher, Human Rights Watch
A row of graves in the Yemeni city of Saada
Migrant routes in Yemen are littered with graves  BBC

Perhaps the real mystery here is that of human nature itself. That a mind-chilling reality of a nation that is notoriously xenophobic, one that does not welcome those in whom it has no interest other than as temporary labourers toward whom citizenship or civil rights will never be given, prefer to be oblivious to the reality that the violent reception at the border meted out to unwanted migrants fails to dissuade them. The knowledge of the hostility with which they are met has not dampened the ardour of young men to intrude where they are not wanted.

The imagined lure of financial success should they access a country's limitless resources for advancement propels them to continue testing fortune. Penetrating the border when they cannot hope for any kind of official status as immigrants and potential citizens of a wealthy country motivates them to ignore the reality of the violent reception they will be exposed to. That is the puzzle of human nature just as much as the unwillingness to accept the presence of those that are unwanted and to emphasize the resistance to be forced to accept them by simply dispatching them from life.


 

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Thursday, March 04, 2021

Saudi Bloggers Inivite the Vengeance of the Powerful MbS ... AsylumAbroad? There is no Escape

Omar Abdulaziz
Omar Abdulaziz  Washington Post/Getty Images
"[The Canadian authorities -- RCMP] received some information regarding my situation that I might be a potential target."
"MbS and his group or – I don’t know – his team, they want to harm me. They want to do something, but I don’t know whether it’s assassination, kidnapping, I don’t know – but something not OK for sure."
"They [RCMP] asked me, ‘What do you think about it?’ I said, ‘I’m happy'."
"I feel that I’m doing something. You know, if you’re not doing anything that bothers MbS, that means you’re not working very well."
"I don’t want to tell you that I’m scared. I’m not, honestly. But you have to take some precautions to be ready."
"[Saudis at one time commented freely about Saudi Arabia on Twitter]; That all changed with the rise of MbS. Saudi Twitter gradually morphed into a propaganda platform, with the government deploying trolls and pressuring influencers to amplify its messages. More than 30 influencers told me that the Saudi government blackmailed them with material obtained by hacking their phones. They were given two options: Tweet propaganda or have your private content, including pictures, released on Twitter." 
Omar Abdulaziz, Saudi blogger, activist, self-exiled in Canada
 
"[The Official Opposition in Parliament want to see the governing Liberals create a] robust plan to counter foreign influence operations on Canadian soil."
"The government's response to Canadians facing intimidation and harassment by foreign agents is wholly inadequate." 
Michael Chong, Conservative foreign affairs critic
 
"It is completely unacceptable and we will never tolerate foreign actors threatening Canada's national security or the safety of our citizens and residents."
Public Safety Minister Bill Blair
 
"Now that the U.S. has clearly signalled that it will not fundamentally change the relationship with Saudi Arabia, it becomes much more difficult and costly for American allies in the west to change their relationship with Saudi Arabia."
Thomas Juneau, professor, faculty of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa
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YouTuber Omar Abdulaziz, now a Montrealer, has been under pressure by agents of Saudi Arabia trying to persuade him to return to the Kingdom. Once he returns, he well knows, he will be subject to additional pressure to surrender his opposition to the ruling House of Saud, and to become part of the Kingdom's stable of electronic propagandists under the imprimatur of Crowns Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Alternately, he could very well and more likely suffer the fate that awaited Raif Badawi, another blogger and activist who has been imprisoned in Saudi Arabia for the past eight years.
 
Ensaf Haidar, Raif Badawi's wife has been actively engaged for the period her husband has been incarcerated, in approaching governments and human rights groups for their support in applying pressure to Saudi Arabia to release her husband. When Raif Badawi was originally taken into custody in 2012, charged with insulting Islam and sentenced to ten years' imprisonment, he was also sentenced to receive 1000 lashes as additional punishment. He was subjected to an initial 50 lashes which almost killed the frail young man.
 
An international outcry persuaded the Saudis to settle for the 50 lashes for the time being. Raif Badawi's ten-year sentence is set to soon expire. But his wife Ensaf Haidar has become an irritating thorn in Mohammed bin Salman's side, and signs have emerged that she is set to be 'investigated' by the Saudi legal system for besmirching the reputation of the Kingdom. Underlying that threat is another, that a new charge is being leveled at Mr. Badawi which would most certainly extend his prison stay into the future.
Ensaf Haidar, wife of imprisoned blogger Raif Badawi, holds a poster with his photo at a rally for his freedom on Jan. 13, 2015, in Montreal.
Like Russia and Iran, Saudi Arabia has long been known to seek out its nationals abroad who have taken to criticizing the Kingdom, to threaten or silence them. The murder and dismemberment of Saudi Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul represents the most high-profile of the Saudi intelligence group's effort to silence a critic; a hit that went sideways with a resulting gasp of horror at the extreme lengths chosen to silence a critic through a grotesquely ill-conceived 'disappearance'.
 
Since the 2017 palace coup when King Salman's son Mohammed persuaded his father to anoint him successor to the Saudi throne rather than his uncle, when Mohammed bin Salman then had many members of the royal family placed under house arrest, thus removing any challenges to his claim to the throne in a reorganized succession, the Kingdom has seen various types of turmoil, internal and external. MbS has proceeded slowly to loosen Saudi laws restricting the human rights of Saudi women. While at the same time arresting women who publicly agitate for their human rights.
 
Mohammed bin Salman
Mohammed bin Salman, Getty Images

He also formed a coalition with other Sunni Arab states to become involved in an Iranian proxy civil war in Yemen, arming and training Houthi rebels for the greater goal of consolidating the influence and power of the Islamic Republic of Iran in a wider arc of Shi'ite influence encircling the majority Arab Sunni states. The mass arrest of senior Saudis, repression of dissidents and the disappearance of those close to dissidents sheltering abroad have all marked the Kingdom's MbS launch into notoriety.
"We assess that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi." 
"While the United States remains invested in its relationship with Saudi Arabia, President [Joe] Biden has made clear that partnership must reflect U.S. values." 
"To that end, we have made absolutely clear that extraterritorial threats and assaults by Saudi Arabia against activists, dissidents and journalists must end. They will not be tolerated by the United States."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken
Another Saudi blogger living in Montreal where he had sought asylum began to block fellow activists on social media. Other Saudi dissidents in Canada posted that Ahmed Alharby had informed them of a visit he made to the Saudi embassy in Ottawa where he had undergone interrogation. A new Twitter account appeared in mid-February under Alharby, featuring the image of Mohammed bin Salman, making ti clear that Alharby had returned to Saudi Arabia and was no longer a critic, but a stalwart fan of MbS. 
Saudi women in abayas and niqabs
Saudi women have to wear the abaya in public by law   Getty Images

Saudi Saad Aljabri, formerly a high-ranking intelligence officer, linked closely to the deposed uncle of Mohammed bin Salman, has been harassed at his home in exile in Toronto, with Saudi agents trying to persuade him to return to his country of birth. Two of his adult children living in Saudi Arabia have been 'disappeared' in an apparent effort to persuade their father to return to Saudi Arabia. Aljabri has launched a lawsuit against Mohammed bin Salman in the United States charging him with dispatching a hit squad to dispose of him, but the squad was denied entry to Canada by suspicious Canada Border agents.

Reporters Without Borders has filed legal documents in Germany for an investigation to be launched into alleged crimes against humanity in the repression of journalists by Mohammed bin Salman. Clearly, he has failed to positively impress governments and various agencies around the world. "The official opening of a criminal investigation in Germany into the crimes against humanity in Saudi Arabia would be a world first", observed German executive director of Reporters Without Borders, Christian Mihr.

A cyclist passes as activists demonstrate outside the Saudi Arabian Embassy against the recent Saudi court ruling that upheld a previous verdict of ten years in prison and 1,000 lashes for Saudi blogger Raif Badawi on June 11, 2015 in Berlin, Germany.
A cyclist passes as activists demonstrate outside the Saudi Arabian Embassy against the recent Saudi court ruling that upheld a previous verdict of ten years in prison and 1,000 lashes for Saudi blogger Raif Badawi on June 11, 2015 in Berlin, Germany. Photo by Carsten Koall/Getty Images

 

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Sunday, February 28, 2021

Revealed Through Gross Ineptitude

Revealed Through Gross Ineptitude

"We assess that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi."
"We base this assessment on the Crown Prince's control of decision-making in the Kingdom, the direct involvement of a key adviser and members of Muhammad bin Salman's protective detail in the operation and the Crown Prince's support for using violent measures to silence dissidents abroad, including Khashoggi."
U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence report 
Khashoggi says MBS should get rid of his complex against the Muslim Brotherhood [Handout]
Khashoggi said MBS should get rid of his complex against the Muslim Brotherhood [Handout]
 
Henry II was said to have planned the death of his adversary, the Archbishop of Canterbury by simply mouthing the words: "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?". And that would be all that was needed for a plot to be cooked up to motivate assailants in service to the king to perform the deed. Similarly Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince may have used a sentiment to the very same effect: "Would someone kindly rid me of this troubling pest?" and the deed would be assured to be carried out. Despite the distance of a thousand years between those events, they otherwise have much in common.

Supreme rulers have a penchant for things going their way. The means used to achieve the required result are of little moment to them; what is important is that their wishes be carried out. They have no need to know the petty details; only the conclusion that the deed transpired successfully. In this particular instance of incredibly awkward decision-making and planning carried out with an utter lack of finesse by crude assailants it was inevitable there would be a lashback.

The murderous crew was careless and uncaring of consequences. The simple expedient of hauling the man back to Saudi Arabia for permanent imprisonment for irritating the royal power behind the throne would have been simple enough to carry to conclusion; the decision to murder the man, dismember the body and secrete it away somewhere represented a bleak, black slapstick farce of intelligence planning gone amok, which had its inevitable consequences.

Turkey's Erdogan, eager to ingratiate himself with the United States' investigation as a demonstration of just how powerfully cognizant he is about civilized behaviour -- despite that he sees nothing whatever unsettling to human rights by marginalizing, persecuting, and bombing minority indigenous Kurds who prefer that their status reflect that of resident/citizens of their ancient homeland, Kurdistan, not Turkey -- professed to be shocked and indignant over the bloody scene. And in matters of injuring and killing innocent civilians as a byproduct of conflict, the U.S. has no clean slate authorizing its investigation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's Byzantine affairs.
 
Jamal Khashoggi
Jamal Khashoggi. Mohammed Al-Shaikh/AFP/Getty   
Jamal Khashoggi had a chequered past, consorting with terrorists, agitating against Jews and Israel, the perennial scapegoats of the Middle East, himself an enthusiastic member of the Muslim Brotherhood acknowledged as a terrorist organization by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. His slurs against the House of Saud's irritation factor cannot have been carried out without the knowledge that he was making himself a marked man. He lived in the U.S. in self-exile. To name him as a highly respected journalist is to elevate a sow's ear to a silk purse. His death is no great loss to a troubled world.
 
President Joe Biden wanted to break the revelatory news gently to his great good friend, 85-year-old King Salman, who knows realpolitik inside and out. The point of the release of the investigation pointing a finger of responsibility at this favoured son-and-heir-to-the-Saudi-throne simultaneously with a personal video conference was a patronizing exercise in a more powerful country gently handling a collegial country a political grenade; to be carefully handled lest an explosion result harming relations between the two countries. 

But like Turkey's Erdogan, America's Biden was intent on demonstrating how civilized the United States is, and how affronted civil society was in the wake of the details revealed in the ghastly 2018
assassination of the "Washington Post journalist". An odious act of state malfeasance, somewhat similar to Iran's hit squads hunting down enemies of the Grand Ayatollah, or Russian hitmen poisoning unsuspecting Russian dissidents abroad, occasionally succeeding in dispatching victims to lethal poisoning -- sometimes failing.

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Monday, November 30, 2020

The Middle East Chess Game

"[The meeting with Netanyahu] aimed to highlight that MbS [Mohammed bin Salmon] is more willing than his father to take steps toward normalization without first reaching a two-state solution."
Neil Quilliam, Associate Fellow, Chatham House think tank
"We have supported normalization with Israel for a long time, because we are the authors of the 2002 Arab Peace initiative, which envisioned complete normalization with Israel."
"But there is one very important thing that has to happen first, which is a permanent and full peace deal between the Palestinians and Israelis that delivers a Palestinian state with dignity within the 1967 borders to the Palestinians."
Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud 

"[Iran has exploited a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers] to intensify its expansionist activities, create its terrorist networks, and use terrorism. [This had produced nothing but[ chaos, extremism, and sectarianism."
"A comprehensive solution and a firm international position are required. Our experience with the Iranian regime has taught us that partial solutions and appeasement did not stop its threats to international peace and security."
"We support the efforts of the current US administration to achieve peace in the Middle East by bringing the Palestinians and the Israelis to the negotiation table to reach a fair and comprehensive agreement."
"This terrorist organization must be disarmed."
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz
King Salman reiterated the need for a Palestinian state [File: Waleed Ali/AP]
"[There have been reports about differences within the royal family, particularly between King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, on whether Saudi Arabia will follow others in the region and normalize ties with Israel.] So this was an opportunity to publicly before the world reiterate Saudi Arabia’s long-standing position … that there needs to be two states – an independent state of Palestine with its capital East Jerusalem."
"That’s a clear re-affirmation of Saudi Arabia’s stand and a real rejection of the current efforts to push Arab states to normalize with Israel. That was critically important."
Hillary Mann Leverett, former US official, CEO, political risk consultancy STRATEGA
The meeting between Israel's prime minister and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia messages both allies and enemies of the deep commitment the two countries have forged for the mutual concerns of containing the Islamic Republic of Iran's ambitions. The covert meeting that took place last Sunday in the Saudi city of Neom, publicly denied by Riyadh perhaps for several reasons, one being that King Salman had no prior notice of the impending meeting, conveyed a message to incoming President-elect Joe Biden. Allies of the U.S. are closing ranks, and they're focusing on future U.S. relations with Iran. 

No other Israeli leader has ever been in the position that Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself within, given current events in the region with softening attitudes evinced by Arab Muslim countries toward their Jewish neighbour whose support they all seek in their commonly-shared caution about the intentions of their Persian neighbour exploiting sectarian divisions, supporting and financing terrorist groups, fomenting regional problems, aspiring toward attaining nuclear weapons.

The covert visit had the effect of emphasizing the depth of concern shared by both Israel and Saudi Arabia about Iran, demonstrating just how serious opposition to Tehran is responsible for arranging a strategic realignment of countries in the Middle East in support of their common interests. "It's very important to create the axis which isolates Iran", explained Israeli cabinet minister Tzachi Hanegbi, commenting on the meeting.

The fear all now share with the clear understanding that the Trump administration is preparing to vacate the White House and President-elect Joe Biden is that is prepared to adopt Iran policies reflecting those practised during the U.S. presidency of Barack Obama which had the effect of straining Washington's connections with its traditional regional allies. Mr. Biden has made clear that he intends to rejoin the international nuclear pact with Iran that the U.S. under President Trump left in 2018.

Mr. Biden visualizes working with allies in strengthening the terms of the agreement should Tehran resume strict compliance. Which is expecting a lot, since it became clear soon after the 2015 agreement was signed by all concerned parties that strict compliance to the terms was never on Tehran's real-time agenda. Iran's network of armed Shi'ite militias across the Arab world, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon and into the Gulf and Yemen, is alarming to its Sunni Muslim neighbours.

Saudi Arabia is particularly concerned with the Houthi rebels from Yemen, backed by Tehran attacking Saudi oil installations. On Israel's part, a silent war against Iranian forces through air raids in Syria on Lebanese Shi'ite paramilitary Hezbollah, on Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the focus on disrupting supplies of weapons shipped across the country, is ongoing. At the meeting on Sunday U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was present, along with the chief of Israel's Mossad.

Mr. Pompeo's active prompting of Gulf  relations with Israel, helped in formalizing Israel's already warm relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and eventually Sudan in normalizing relations with Israel. He has continued his efforts to persuade other Arab nations that it is in their best interests for a variety of reasons to join suit, with the expectation that more will follow. Saudi Arabia's position on normalization hinges on King Salman, adamant that a peace treaty with the Palestinians take place.

"Normalization ... is a carrot to get [Biden's] focus away from other issues, especially [Saudi] human rights", suggested a foreign diplomat in Riyadh. The death on Friday of Iran's chief nuclear scientist may have been planned to put a spanner in the works of Mr. Biden's plans to resume the nuclear deal with Iran, and if so, it will have been worth the condemnation on the part of other nations looking in from the outside, none of whom have to overly concern themselves about the malign, disruptive and violent plans of a near neighbour.


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Wednesday, November 25, 2020

The New Day Dawning of Arab/Israeli Rapprochement

"I do not know nor do I ask about the nationality of everyone I take a photo with."
"Anyone can take a photo with me so long as they are human."
"I never ask about his color, religion, or nationality. All of us are human.":
Egyptian actor and rapper Mohamed Ramadan
The picture in question of Omer Adam and Mohamed Ramadan. Photo: Twitter.
"[Pakistan] categorically rejects baseless speculation regarding [the] possibility of recognition of the State of Israel by Pakistan."
"The prime minister [Imran Khan] has made it clear that unless a just settlement of the Palestine issue, satisfactory to the Palestinian people, is found, Pakistan cannot recognize Israel."
"For just and lasting peace, it is imperative to have a two-state solution in accordance with the relevant United Nations and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) resolutions, with the pre-1967 borders, and Al-Quds Al-Sharif [Jerusalem] as the capital of a viable, independent and contiguous Palestinian State."
Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri
Where Arab leaders of Muslim-majority countries might wish to finally lay aside their belligerent malice at the presence of a Jewish state returning to its Biblical-era heritage from the diaspora to which it had been exiled only to discover that no place on Earth guaranteed Jews equality, freedom of religion, the right to practise their distinct culture without eventually disowning and turning on them, with blood slanders, expulsion, pogroms, disentitlements, ghettoization, and finally genocide, the opinion 'on the street' will always reflect the campaigns embarked upon to delegitimize the presence of Jews on territory Islam claims for itself.

Arab and Muslim states in the Middle East utterly rejected the United Nations plan for official Partition, apportioning territory to each; Israel and Arab Palestine. Israel accepted the 1948 'permission to proceed' by the world body, while the Palestinians obdurately refused it and the surrounding Middle East states came to their side, swiftly assembling a joint-Arab military invasion to oust the Jews from their fledgling state. And failed. But the sting of failure and the insult to Islam mandated further military assaults, all of them failing. 

Eventually the sting of failure faded at the executive government level for Egypt and Jordan, but the propaganda lessons of Israel=enemy never did. So while both Egypt and Jordan have long since signed peace treaties with the 'enemy' whose presence they could never defeat, all quietened on that front, even as hostility from their populations remained. Turkey, the sole Islamic nation that supported the existence of Israel, did a turnabout with the introduction of an Islamist government.

Gulf nations that never aspired to military victory over Israel, and who unlike Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt did not expel their Jewish populations Arabized over the millennia of living side-by-side with Arabs in near-fraternal order came to the final realization that the failure of the Palestinian cause to found a nation of their own rested with the Palestinian leadership that adamantly refused all offers at the bargaining table with Israel that met Palestinian demands with the exception of two; the 'right of return' and Jerusalem as a Palestinian state capital.

Before the advent of Islam in the 7th Century, the Arabian Peninsula and particularly areas around the now-sacred city of Medina, was the home of Jewish tribes. Tribes that Mohammad battled against for refusing his offer to leave Judaism and accept Islam; exiling those he failed to kill in combat, and restricted residence in what became Saudi Arabia to only Muslims. In the modern era, the House of Saud contested control of Arabia with another powerful tribe, the Hashemites; with British mediation, the Hashemite Kingdom was given TransJordan to rule, and the Sauds took Arabia.
 
Now, the United Arab Emirates, a cosmopolitan, open society of moderate Muslim rule, and Bahrain with similar cultural values have chosen to normalize relations with Israel, once considered a sacrilege. Sudan followed suit. And more Arab states are expected to follow, under the aegis of U.S. diplomacy. Those Islamic states which have over the past decades turned increasingly Islamist like Turkey will continue their distance from Israel, spurning diplomatic overtures. Sadly, there is no depth of 'normalization' between Israel, Jordan and Egypt.
 
The Egyptian actor/singer who embraced Israeli entertainers at a casual entertainment event is being sanctioned by his own Egyptian entertainment union, and lawsuits are being brought against  him for his friendly actions toward fellow entertainers in a comradely environment of relaxation and personal relations. His behaviour, the charges go, insult and degrade Egyptian values. He has apologized and will perform the necessary public penance required to redeem himself in public opinion. Nor do Jordanian citizens bear a warmer relationship to their Israeli counterparts. 

The normalization agreement and the process taking place now between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain are of a different quality altogether. There is a warm reception on either end, mutually respectful and generously appreciative of the qualities each brings to a burgeoning new relationship. And the most difficult of the Arab states of all to pacify in their traditional distance with Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia may now be warming to the concept of 'normalization' with the Jewish State, as  the Saudis turn toward moderation of their stern practice of Islam.
 
  Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump and United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed sign agreements as they participate in the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, September 15, 2020. © Tom Brenner, REUTERS
These events are taking place under the imprimatur and guidance and diplomacy of the departing U.S. Trump White House administration, a goal and an achievement that no other American administration has ever succeeded with. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to Saudi Arabia to meet its crown prince to discuss between them an issue of great importance both to Israel and to the Gulf Sunni states; the aggressively hostile ascendance of the Islamic Republic of Iran, threatening stability and the status quo in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia is officially denying that any such meeting between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu took place. But undoubtedly, it did. A meeting that the Saudis would like to keep under wraps, at least for the present, but which the other two, Messrs. Pompeo and Netanyahu, would prefer to have out in the open as a symptom and symbol that peace is achievable and good relations between neighbours opens the way to peace.

National flags of Bahrain, UAE, Israel and the US are projected on the walls of Jerusalem's Old City [File: L Ronen Zvulun/Reuters]
National flags of Bahrain, UAE, Israel and the US are projected on the walls of Jerusalem's Old City [File: L Ronen Zvulun/Reuters]

 


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Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Succession in the Royal House of Saud

The course of royal succession info
"[The Twitter campaign is a] deflection from the actual story: hostage taking of my brother and sister, unlawful persecution and false allegations."
"Omar and Sarah were kidnapped at dawn on 16 March and taken out of their beds by about 50 state security officers who arrived in 20 cars."
"We don't even know if they are alive or dead."
"[My father Dr.Saad al-Jabri never controlled the ministry fund, he] had the sole and full discretion [over it] with a clear and undisputed mandate from King Abdullah."
"They can make up any lies they want about him but he is innocent."
"There are signs that Dr. Saad is being targeted with a wide range of threats and the [Canadian] authorities are taking it seriously."
"We were pushed into this. We are patriots, we love our country, we don't want to embarrass Saudi Arabia but kidnapping Omar and Sarah like this, it's daylight thuggery by a state."
Khalid al-Jabri, exiled, Canada

"Dr al-Jabri transformed Saudi counter-terrorism efforts."
"He changed it from being a crude, violent, confession-based system into one that used modern forensics and computer-based data mining."
"He was the smartest guy we dealt with amongst so many others who were dysfunctional."
Former Western intelligence official

"They have been preparing documents against him [Prince bin Nayef] since March."
"[Those behind the Twitter campaign want to] smear his image domestically."
Anonymous Saudi source
The current crown prince of Saudi Arabia is an impetuous, imperiously entitled man who has taken the Kingdom in perilous directions since his father named him to succeed him as King. He made the decision for Saudi Arabia to assemble a 'coalition' of Sunni Arab states to become involved in Yemen, to fight the Houthi Shiite rebels linked with the Islamic Republic of Iran, miring Saudi Arabia in an endless cycle of war in the impoverished country. A proxy war between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian Republic where Yemenites suffer and neither side gains advantage.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) orchestrated the assassination at a Saudi mission in Turkey of an irritant critic of his, and garnered the attention of the world when it was revealed that Jamal Khashoggi had entered the Saudi mission to obtain papers to enable his new marriage, with his fiance waiting outside the gates of the mission for her husband-to-be who never re-surfaced. He had been eradicated in the clumsiest manner imaginable; bludgeoned to death, then dismembered by ham-handed Saudis on a mission they were entrusted with by MbS, who later declared innocence.

This is a man who does not take criticism kindly.  And who seems to act on the spur of the moment. When Canada's then-minister of foreign affairs tweeted a demand that Saudi women protesting for their overdue human rights be released from prison, MbS ordered all Saudi medical students studying in Canada to return home, while he cancelled trade contracts to punish Canada. Canada reciprocated by fulfilling a contract to provide the Saudis with armoured vehicles for use in Yemen in a spineless reaction. 

On the other hand, a high-placed intelligence elite fallen out of favour with MbS who had been an ally of the former crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, was given sanctuary along with his son Khalif, in Canada. Prince bin Nayef was arrested and imprisoned, preparing to stand trial on misappropriating billions with the supposed assistance of Dr.Saad al-Jabri, an obvious frame-up in the interests of blackening both their reputations in popular opinion ahead of the trial that will surely find the prince and Dr.al-Jabri guilty as charged.

In an effort to force Dr.al-Jabri to return to Saudi Arabia, ostensibly to stand trial alongside his close friend and mentor, Prince bin Nayef who was arrested in March along with two other senior members of the royal household, Dr.al-Jabri's other two adult children still living in Saudi Arabia were kidnapped and held as 'ransom' until his forced return. No one knows where the two are, and what kind of conditions have been imposed upon them; two 'disappeared' hostages.

Secretary Pompeo Meets With Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (32862953548) (cropped).jpg
  • Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia
Crown Prince bin Salman is anxious to have his ascendance to the throne made failsafe. He is neurotic about the thought that someone else in the royal family will succeed in ascending to the throne. He is intent on disabling any possibility that someone else could take his father's place but himself. King Salman, 84, is in poor health and has just recently been admitted to a Riyadh hospital suffering from inflammation of the gall bladder. MbS anticipates his father's authority and royal title as King of Saudi Arabia to represent his inheritance and will brook no hint of opposition.

Prince bin Nayef, King Salman's nephew, had been appointed his successor until MbS managed to persuade his father that succession should elevate him, and not bin Nayef. Dr.Jabri, Prince bin Nayef's closest ally and colleague in the kingdom's intelligence sector is now being accused of misspending $11 billion of misappropriated government funds from an interior ministry fund which Prince Nayef administered.

A campaign to delegitimize any possible claim to the throne on the part of the prince has been launched full-out by MbS and driven by his supporters. Thousands of Twitter accounts are using the hashtags "the fugitive Saad al Jabri" and "Saad al Jabri's corruption". One account with over 1.2 million followers read: "Mohammed Bin Nayef allowed the corruption network run by al-Jabri to operate"

A hint of U.S. involvement in the rush to denigrate and bring the two to trial was voiced when aides were said to be "accelerating the campaign" against Prince bin Nayef and Dr.al-Jabri in anticipation of the November presidential election in the United States. Just in case someone other than President Donald Trump wins the presidency and the man who is president who has publicly supported MbS is no longer available to do so.

Mohammed bin Salman
'A fully-fledged palace coup is unlikely. No other prince can mobilise enough troops to depose a man with the coercive powers of the state at his disposal.’ Photograph: Reuters


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