Monday, June 01, 2015

How Do We Irk You? Let Us Count The Ways ... 

Russian generals delegated by their president to express his views met with Washington officials in April, to speak to them of the dangers inherent in further 'interference' in Russian affairs by the West. Supplying weapons to Ukraine is an offence that Moscow cannot abide. If the Kremlin has determined it will continue ensuring that the pro-Russian Ukrainian rebels are well equipped to continue performing at Russia's will, that is a strictly internal affair, an issue that the United States would do well to absorb, evidently.

Vladimir Putin
Russian generals at the meeting were speaking with the president's approval -- Getty images

Russian nationals who were activated in Ukraine can just as readily be prodded into action in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, they suggested. Should NATO dream of returning the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine, it would face actions "forcefully including through the use of nuclear force", impediments to their impractical interference in Russian affairs. Furthermore should it become evident that Kiev has been supplied with weapons that would be viewed as "further encroachment by NATO to the Russian border."

From that direct message of intent to the United States, to other messages delivered here and there at seeming random. As though to emphasize the vulnerability of the besieged city of Mariupol, Reuters reported Wednesday that Russia was busy massing rocket launchers, tanks and artillery close to the border with Ukraine. A new offensive in the offing? Impossible, Vladimir Putin insists that the Donetsk and Luhansk separatists are busy with their own rebellion; nothing to do with Russia.

Estonia reports a large number of Russian military flights and huge unannounced exercises at the border, with up to 80,000 Russian troops engaged. Estonia experienced a nasty jolt when a security officer was abducted and paraded on Russian TV, as a spy. Lithuania's foreign minister has raised the alarm that Russia was using information warfare and cyber-warfare in an effort to destabilize the region; at the very least, raise hackles and alarums.

The government of Finland has been facing aerial harassment by Russian aircraft, and last month released depth charges into their coastal waters when an underwater vessel (submarine?) was detected in the very near vicinity. Airspace violations have repeatedly alarmed Sweden, along with a possible submarine in the Stockholm archipelago. A Russian jet with its transponder switched to off almost collided with a passenger jet over the Baltic.
 
Norway has reported to NATO that it has intercepted 74 Russian warplanes off its coast last year. Norway is now restructuring its military as a reflection of a "new old normal" in memory of the Cold War. Russia plans to station missiles with nuclear capabilities in Kaliningrad on the Baltic, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. Poland has plans to build six watch towers on the border with Kaliningrad, accelerating a military modernization project, buying U.S. Patriot missiles.
 
That's all on Russia's 'near abroad'. On the other hand, internally, a propaganda campaign labelling Ukraine in control of fascist fanatics has Russians convinced that whatever their president is doing in Ukraine is precisely what Ukraine needs to save it from itself. The Kremlin is on the way to convincing Hungary, Greece and Cyprus that the West will let them down, but Russia will come to their rescue.
 
More recently, Moscow has announced its latest plans to move nuclear forces into Crimea. Thousands of Russian troops are now assembled at the Ukrainian border, with Mariupol on the menu. Transnistria is a willing accomplice, it seems to its migration from Moldova to become part of Greater Russia, somewhat like Georgia losing Abkhazia and South Ossetia; there but not there, 'protected' by Russian troops.

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