generalspeaking

Russia Being Russia

"[Latvians are attempting to] stay calm and carry on."
"They're [the Russian military] trying to check our central nervous system."
"We are keeping a very close eye on the preparations for this exercise [Russian military exercise Zapad]."
Karlis Eihenbaums, Latvian ambassador to Canada

"[Russia's] lack of respect for the sovereignty of its neighbours [Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, along with Latvia, has created an atmosphere of apprehension]."
"It's not about exercises per se, or Exercise Zapad 2017. It's about the climate that Russia has created over the past number of years with regards to its actions on the world stage."
Col. Jay Janzen, spokesman Canadian Forces

"All nations have the right to exercise their forces, but nations should also respect their commitments to transparency."
"Predictability and transparency are especially important when there is increased military activity along our borders to reduce risks and avoid any miscalculations, misperceptions or incidents."
NATO official

Pavel Golovkin/AP    A Russian navy ship and helicopters take part in a landing operation during military drills at the Black Sea coast, Crimea, Friday, September 9, 2016.

The thing of it is, Moscow enjoys keeping its neighbours on tenterhooks. And it has no intention of appearing predictable. Russian President Vladimir Putin takes especial pleasure in surprising other nations' heads. He feels, furthermore, no responsibility to any nation other than how relationships can enhance Russia's well-being. And it is more than obvious than he brooks no criticism for his deliberate actions to improve Russia's status in his opinion and that of the Kremlin.

So while it may be that Russia has signed on to a convention requiring the signees to the international agreement to make certain that outside observers have the freedom to look in on any military exercise which would involve more than 13,000 troops, that too can be overcome with a little bit of fancy footwork. As, for example, claiming that the military exercise to take place just over the border from Latvia really involves a number of concurrent exercises, each containing fewer than 13,000 troops.

If Vladimir Putin says it is so, who is there who will dispute him? He is nothing if not clever; devious too, needless to say, but more than capable of sliding himself between any cracks that might exist for the purpose of extricating oneself from uncomfortable positions. Other than those positions to which he feels supremely entitled, so that the shuffle of Crimea from Ukraine to Russia requires no explanation, it simply represents an error of history made right.

And nor must Moscow explain how it is that their conscience is untroubled by supporting a mass murderer of Bashar al-Assad's own alter-sect population by means both conventional and atrocious. Securing deep-sea ports and air bases trump any risible calls to moral responsibility. And with the assurance that the Islamic Republic of Iran's first target will always be Israel followed by their Sunni Arab counterparts in the Middle East, it is comfortable enough shrugging off Iran's determined reach for nuclear weapons.

Pavel Golovkin/AP   Paratroopers made jumps into the area of operations.

The scheduled Zapad military exercise anticipated as representing the largest ever mounted by Russia post Cold War, means that this war game will be vastly more intimidating in the types of war gear and manoeuvres than all such previous games; Russia has been on a technological military-gear tear for years and the pride it invests in its massive new destructive weapons really does require an audience. Stay tuned for more recent state-distributed photographs of fearsome military behemoths.

The steps Moscow has taken to bar international observers from witnessing the much heralded Zapad exercise has, unfortunately, disturbed the peace of its neighbours. The estimated 600,000 to 100,000 Russian soldiers deployed for Zapad will not be entirely without the presence of international observers, since Russia has graciously agreed to a limited foreign presence to be honoured by being present at one day of the exercise, where guides will limit what and where they can observe.

Poland is sufficiently alarmed that it will take steps to close its border airspace with Belarus, which is involved alongside Russia in Zapad. The four NATO brigades deployed to eastern Europe to prevent any possibility of Russian aggression to its near neighbours will be "vigilant and alert", announced NATO, while also being "calm, balanced and measured".

Pavel Golovkin/AP  A Russian official alleged that the drills never consisted of more than 12,500 troops at any given moment — in compliance with international treaties.

Labels: Conflict, East Europe, NATO, Russia

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, September 02, 2017