"Russia is acting on a faulty threat assessment and seeks to fashion a
military response to largely imaginary threats and challenges that are
not military in nature." "It's all about strategic messaging of
coercion and compellence directed at the U.S. and NATO, to prevent
things the West has no intention of doing or the capability to
accomplish." Vladimir Frolov, independent foreign
policy analyst, Moscow
"In 24 to 48 hours, some parts of the Russian armed forces could be
ready to invade one Baltic state or all of them." "It’s clear that it’s
not only defense but it’s also about offense." Lithuanian Defense
Minister Raimundas Karoblis
Helicopters take part in the Zapad 2017 military
exercises at the Asipovichy military training ground on September 18,
2017, in in Asipovichy, Belarus. Photo by Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images
Russia's neighbours are nervous. The Russian military paired with Belarus for war games. At one time, during the glory days of the USSR, war games, with the name of "Zapad" [West] took place with the collaboration of its satellite countries that comprised the Soviet Union. Now, most of those satellites are fully independent and have joined the 'West' [Zapad], as members of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, representing the combined military might that Vladimir Putin detests and fears.
The Zapad-2017 war games were mounted as an exercise-in-training against the sinister anti-Russian plans of three non-existent states. They were named as Veishnoriya, Lubeniya and Vesbasriya, proxies for the Baltic states whose alliance with Moscow's perceived Western enemies rate them as the games' targets to be challenged and militarily defeated. To that end, Russia and its sidekick Belarus brought out all the advanced military hardware it could muster to put on a Big Show with the intention of intimidating whomever it might.
Armored personnel carriers drive
along a dirt road at the Asipovichy military training ground during the
Zapad 2017 military exercises on September 18, 2017, in in Asipovichy,
Belarus.Brendan Hoffman/Stringer/Getty Images
The production certainly rated high on the anxiety scale. Officials in the Baltics and Poland felt the tremors of 2014 when the games were the occasion to be used as a screen, riveting attention on Zapad-2014 while preparations were underway for Crimea's annexation and Russian military intervention in eastern Ukraine, alongside the ethnic Russian Ukrainian rebels.
Russia's anxiety-ridden neighbours were fairly convinced of a certainty that Russian troops would number up to 100,000. According to a convention signed by Russia and Western nations, called the Vienna Document, all exercises whose troop presence exceeds 13,000 or 300 tanks would be expected to permit the presence of foreign monitors. As pointed out by Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of NATO, Moscow understates troop numbers by tens of thousands.
This handily bypasses the need to permit the presence of monitors, interfering with Moscow's freedom to design the games as it sees fit, including the numbers participating. Zapad exercises this year came under conjecture as a hidden purpose given past scenarios, where Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, head of the U.S. Army forces in Europe, conjectured that Zapad was launched as a possible "Trojan horse", where Russian troops would be sent in to the games and many would remain.
In moving considerably greater numbers of troops into Belarus than would be withdrawn, a permanent military base would be established directly on the border with NATO countries. This theory fits well with Poland's and the Baltics' concerns about Vladimir Putin's plans. The exercise, commented Mr. Stoltenberg, fits a "pattern of a more assertive Russia, exercising more aggressively" to demonstrate "it is willing to use military force against its neighbours".
No so, Russia responds to Western concerns over its showcasing of new military technology. The exercises -- despite being conducted under the premise that three fictional countries must be defeated in response to their sinister plans to attack Russia -- are meant for defence, purely. No offence intended. Which is precisely the argument that North Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran insist is their goal in achieving ICBM and nuclear efficiencies.
"We all hoped that the Cold War or something comparable would never
happen again. So it is a
kind of deja vu for me to be here", commented German Army Lt. Col. Thorsten Gensler, commander
of the German-led, multinational NATO battalion deployed to
Lithuania one of four such Baltic/Polish situated NATO-member battalions hoping to persuade Russia from attacking NATO territory.
A general view of the military exercise at a
training ground a training ground September 18, 2017, at Luzhsky range
near St. Petersburg, Russia. The Zapad 2017 (West 2017) military
maneuvers have caused concern among some NATO members neighboring
Russia, who have criticized a lack of transparency about exercises and
questioned Moscow's intentions.Mikhail Svetlov/Contributor/Getty Images
"[Latvians are attempting to] stay calm and carry on." "They're [the Russian military] trying to check our central nervous system." "We are keeping a very close eye on the preparations for this exercise [Russian military exercise Zapad]." Karlis Eihenbaums, Latvian ambassador to Canada
"[Russia's] lack of respect for the sovereignty of its neighbours [Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, along with Latvia, has created an atmosphere of apprehension]." "It's not about exercises per se, or Exercise Zapad 2017. It's about the climate that Russia has created over the past number of years with regards to its actions on the world stage." Col. Jay Janzen, spokesman Canadian Forces
"All nations have the right to exercise their forces, but nations should also respect their commitments to transparency." "Predictability and transparency are especially important when there is increased military activity along our borders to reduce risks and avoid any miscalculations, misperceptions or incidents." NATO official
Pavel Golovkin/AP
A Russian navy ship and helicopters take part in
a landing operation during military drills at the Black Sea coast,
Crimea, Friday, September 9, 2016.
The thing of it is, Moscow enjoys keeping its neighbours on tenterhooks. And it has no intention of appearing predictable. Russian President Vladimir Putin takes especial pleasure in surprising other nations' heads. He feels, furthermore, no responsibility to any nation other than how relationships can enhance Russia's well-being. And it is more than obvious than he brooks no criticism for his deliberate actions to improve Russia's status in his opinion and that of the Kremlin.
So while it may be that Russia has signed on to a convention requiring the signees to the international agreement to make certain that outside observers have the freedom to look in on any military exercise which would involve more than 13,000 troops, that too can be overcome with a little bit of fancy footwork. As, for example, claiming that the military exercise to take place just over the border from Latvia really involves a number of concurrent exercises, each containing fewer than 13,000 troops.
If Vladimir Putin says it is so, who is there who will dispute him? He is nothing if not clever; devious too, needless to say, but more than capable of sliding himself between any cracks that might exist for the purpose of extricating oneself from uncomfortable positions. Other than those positions to which he feels supremely entitled, so that the shuffle of Crimea from Ukraine to Russia requires no explanation, it simply represents an error of history made right.
And nor must Moscow explain how it is that their conscience is untroubled by supporting a mass murderer of Bashar al-Assad's own alter-sect population by means both conventional and atrocious. Securing deep-sea ports and air bases trump any risible calls to moral responsibility. And with the assurance that the Islamic Republic of Iran's first target will always be Israel followed by their Sunni Arab counterparts in the Middle East, it is comfortable enough shrugging off Iran's determined reach for nuclear weapons.
Pavel Golovkin/AP
Paratroopers made jumps into the area of operations.
The scheduled Zapad military exercise anticipated as representing the largest ever mounted by Russia post Cold War, means that this war game will be vastly more intimidating in the types of war gear and manoeuvres than all such previous games; Russia has been on a technological military-gear tear for years and the pride it invests in its massive new destructive weapons really does require an audience. Stay tuned for more recent state-distributed photographs of fearsome military behemoths.
The steps Moscow has taken to bar international observers from witnessing the much heralded Zapad exercise has, unfortunately, disturbed the peace of its neighbours. The estimated 600,000 to 100,000 Russian soldiers deployed for Zapad will not be entirely without the presence of international observers, since Russia has graciously agreed to a limited foreign presence to be honoured by being present at one day of the exercise, where guides will limit what and where they can observe.
Poland is sufficiently alarmed that it will take steps to close its border airspace with Belarus, which is involved alongside Russia in Zapad. The four NATO brigades deployed to eastern Europe to prevent any possibility of Russian aggression to its near neighbours will be "vigilant and alert", announced NATO, while also being "calm, balanced and measured".
Pavel Golovkin/AP
A Russian official alleged that the drills never
consisted of more than 12,500 troops at any given moment — in
compliance with international treaties.
"It could be one of the biggest deliverables at Warsaw [what deterrence means in an age where the biggest threat isn't
necessarily nuclear]." "What does it look like to shift from reassurance to deterrence? What does it take?" "I think there will be an interesting conversation about what does deterrence mean in the south." Philip Breedlove (retired) Supreme Allied Commander Europe
The venue of the NATO Summit at the PGE National Stadium in Warsaw, Poland
"[The European project—held together economically by the E.U. and
militarily by NATO—] was this large idea stemming out of World War II
that, if we cooperated among Europeans, then they probably wouldn’t kill
each other. [The British vote to leave the E.U. represents a leading stakeholder in the project deciding to break off, placing its national interests above European
cohesion and stability.]" "And once you go down that path, the logic of
what I call the renationalization of European politics can take over." "We
know how that ends, because that’s how we got into two world wars." Ivo Daalder, former American ambassador to NATO; currently head, Chicago Council on Global Affairs
"[That kind of deterrent] looks a bit funny." "When it comes to the Baltics, we
don’t have the strength, the resources or the will to do anything
there. "We have nothing
to gain in the Baltics." Konstantin Sivkov, Moscow military strategist, formerly with the Russian General Staff
Bulgarian and NATO navy ships take part in a joint military navy
exercise in the Black sea, east of the Bulgarian capital Sofia [Getty]
Representing a collective population of roughly one billion people, leaders from the 28 countries belonging to NATO will be meeting in Warsaw, Poland on Friday and Saturday to map the near future for the military alliance. They will be feeling rather discomfited and roiled at the impending exit of Great Britain from the European Union, because there are close ties between NATO and the EU, particularly of late in a global alliance to meet the exigencies of a fraught world.
Aside from security challenges around the Globe there is Moscow and Vladimir Putin's penchant for 'adventures' to be considered. What might be considered is the reality that on earlier occasions when both Georgia and Moldova encountered Russia's determination to cannibalize a bit of territory here and there to enhance Greater Russia to make it even greater, there was a horrified collective intake of breath, but no noticeable action/reaction beyond polite condemnation.
Similarly with Moscow's annexation of Crimea, and the ongoing conflict supported by Russia, training and equipping ethnic Russian Ukrainians in their rebellion against Kyiv for autonomy in eastern Ukraine. Russian aspirations to further enlarge its territory was made manifest enough by its troops entering Ukraine, by its full military presence at the border between the two countries and the military hardware deployed, including a missile that shot down a Malaysian passenger jet.
Barack Obama is seated with Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko at the 2014 Nato summit (AP)
Surely, there was opportunity at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales to confer amply and with the strength of conviction relating to a reaction from NATO to Russia's latest exploits in Ukraine? Since then, Moscow has flexed its naval, air and land muscles, puzzling and concerning its neighbours no end, and vehemently accusing Europe of sanctimony in its crippling sanctions imposed on Russia. A game of harassment has since given the Baltic states ample reason to invoke NATO's protective clause and NATO has responded.
Many of those central and eastern European countries, are, after all, NATO members, and Ukraine certainly aspires to be, while Vladimir Putin gnashes his teeth and pressures Ukraine through trade strictures and implied military threats; implied since Russia is busy now in Syria, as well. A Rand Corp. report warned that NATO would do well to deploy seven brigades in the Baltic states as a deterrent to a Russian force capable of reaching Riga, Latvia and Tallinn, Estonia in several days' time.
Russia, despite its reduced financial status thanks to the sanctions and a drop in the price per barrel of oil that has been close to catastrophic for its economy, has still increased its state spending on defence by a whopping 80 percent. At the same time, NATO member-countries have decreased their spending significantly on defence. The United States is carrying fully two thirds of total NATO defence budgeting, a fact that grates on the U.S. administration for obvious reasons; the typical free ride enjoyed by the rest of the world since the end of WWII. "The reality is there is little U.S.
leaders can do to force European leaders to spend more on defense, but
that doesn’t mean we should absolve them of their treaty obligations. We also lead by
example. We’ve been cutting our own defense budget and telling allies
they shouldn’t", said Luke Coffey, director of the foreign policy center at The Heritage Foundation in a telephone interview with a news source. The summit venue will be the site of an announcement, a formality only, since it has long been in the news, that one of the measures NATO is set to embark upon to give Vladimir Putin second thoughts should he think seriously of invading eastern Europe, is the deployment of four new battalions. The United Kingdom, United States, Germany and Canada have all pledged to provide a thousand military personnel each, rotating them in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Defence capabilities will be boosted for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, as a rather belated response to historical piracy on the part of Russia. NATO plans to continue working closely with Finland and Sweden -- as well as enhancing security in the Baltic and Black Sea areas. And then there is the Islamic State issue. While the summit will be used by NATO to reconfigure its response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, rededicate its cooperation with the European Union, discuss the additional issue on actions beyond member state borders, there is ISIL to contend with, for it is a situation that demands attention.
"There has been extremely hard lobbying. It is an unfolding story. Canada has been asked to be a framework nation." "[What is being asked for now] is a significant increase [in Canadian troops to be positioned in Latvia]." Unnamed Canadian source
Black Sea. 5 April 2016 – Her Majesty's Canadian Ship (HMCS) FREDERICTON
performs a PASEX with the Bulgarian Frigate, BGS RESHITELNI (F13) and
the Romanian Frigate, ROS REGINA MARIA, during a patrol in the Black Sea
during Operation Reassurance. (Photo: Master Corporal Sebastian Allain,
HMCS FREDERICTON Air Detachment)
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin may be amused at the concern and consternation his erratic and certainly provocative behaviour has caused among former satellites of the Soviet Union, but eastern European nations are anything but amused. They anticipate the potential for aggression mounted by Russia against their nations which have been unequivocal in their wish to move beyond Russia's traditional bullying.
What does enrage Moscow is the too-close presence in its geography of NATO and its troops, imfringing where they have no right to be, as far as the Kremlin is concerned. The good feeling vibes that were definitely present when Vladimir Putin first took power from Mr. Yeltsin did not take long to evaporate. Under Mr. Putin too many 'incidents' took place, from Chechnya to Georgia to Moldova.
And that was before Moscow's outrage when Ukraine decided to oust its Kremlin-approved president leading to the rise of ethnic Russian-Ukrainian rebels claiming the east to be autonomous and pledged to Russia, and Vladimir Putin's decision to plunder Ukraine of the Crimean Peninsula. Since the imposition of European sanctions against Russia, Mr. Putin has enjoyed challenging the patience of NATO member countries through unauthorized fly-by intrusions and mysterious submarine incursions.
And despite Russia's investment in the Syrian conflict where it has been assisting Bashar al Assad to bludgeon Syrian Sunnis and Turkomen in rebellion against the Baathist Alawite regime, the potential for aggression by Russia against eastern Europe remains a worrying issue to be addressed. The U .S., Britain and Germany have agreed to reinforce NATO's eastern flank, contributing infantry battalions in Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, leaving NATO short of troops for Latvia.
And whereas infantry battalions represent 600 to 700 troops, for this mission NATO has established a need for "a battalion, plus, plus", to include armoured reconnaissance, artillery and combat engineers. All of which sounds like serious, very serious business ahead. Which if it is approved, Canada would be sending one of its nine infantry battalions to rotate through Europe to serve six to nine months at a tranche.
Another NATO request is for Canada to maintain a continuous warship presence on patrol in Europe's waters along with contributing CF-18 fighter jets to the Baltic Air Policing mission, set up in the wake of repeated violations by Russian aircraft into NATO airspace.
This presents as a challenge to the new Liberal government of the country whose prime minister has stated his preference to renew a working relationship with Russia rather than keeping it at wary arms-length as was done by the previous Conservative-led government, reflecting Moscow's ongoing belligerence.
2
March 2016. Members of Her Majesty’s Canadian Ship FREDERICTON Air
Detachment and the ship's divers perform rescue training from the CH-124
Sea King helicopter during Operation REASSURANCE on March 2, 2016.
(Photo: Corporal Anthony Chand, Formation Imaging Services)
"The key thing for credible deterrence on land is that major allies should have a presence in this. So to be blunt, so that Russia knows that if it tries something on in a Baltic republic or in Poland or Romania, Bulgaria, it very quickly comes up against British or American or German troops." NATO source "This is NATO taking a more muscular approach than it has done since the Cold War to enhance its forward presence to the East, and as necessary to the South, but only doing as much as is strictly necessary." "Ministers will, I think, agree a highly innovative approach that is completely different from the Cold War. This is NATO assuring itself it can do credibly what it was created to do and has a treaty obligation to do, which is to defend its members." "It is about being strong enough not ever to have to fight, so you can go about your daily lives without worrying about defence matters." Adam Thomson, British ambassador, NATO
Still from video
Undeniably Russia has been deliberately provoking NATO, by playing on the fears of the Baltic states that they may be next in Vladimir Putin's game of showing the international community that his country is still a world power to be reckoned with. To be sure, the international community has been attempting to reckon with Moscow's belligerence. First Ukraine, and the exploitation of ethnic unrest leading to the grabbing of Crimea and the aspiration to incorporate more of east Ukraine into Greater Russia.
Under Vladimir Putin there will be a Greater Russia, reminiscent of the fear instilled abroad by the Soviet Union whose former satellites have no wish to return to the fold. And since some of those former satellites are now securely within the welcoming bosom of NATO, any such endeavour would be met with the kind of push-back that is no mere confrontation but an introduction to World War Three. No one would welcome that. So deterrent is required to keep a bully backing off.
In sunnier times post-USSR, NATO had reached an amicable territorial agreement with Russia, that it would never station a permanent NATO force in Eastern Europe. The solution to that binding assurance is simply to install a non-permanent, or "quasi" permanent brigade-sized (from 3,000 to 5,000 troops) U.S. military force in the east, perhaps Poland, where U.S. military units will rotate in and out of the area; the presence of troops to be permanent, but their makeup changeable.
It isn't that a force of 3,000 or 5,000 at most would represent a formidable fighting force capable of holding back a full-thrust Russian force intent on occupying one of the Baltic states, but the purpose of NATO is to dedicate full support to any of its member states against occupation. Should Russian troops be dispatched to do any such thing, the response would be immediate and forceful, and as such create a scenario that no one considers favourable to the climate of peace.
Russia has invested massive treasury in upgrading its military with state-of-the-art equipment reflecting the latest in military technology. That was before the collapse in the world price of oil and gas. Now, with its economy reeling from sanctions and the low dollar value of a barrel of oil, and its expenses in prosecuting another war in Syria, Moscow may be less willing to flaunt its new war toys as it has done; its jets entering various countries' air spaces and its submarines hiding their presence from scrutiny in national territorial waters not its own.
Russia's military strategy is focused on access denial. As a part of
that, it is investing heavily to expand its submarine fleet. (Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)
The proposed rotating units of the US. military would contain highly mobile special forces units armed with surface-to-air missiles with the backing of planes and helicopters. This reinforcement of eastern Europe includes increasing intelligence capacities, with plans to rapidly reinforce front-line units coming from western Europe to respond to any emergency situations. Their deployment would go some distance in aiding vulnerable states to feel more secure, and able with NATO assistance, to defend themselves.
Poland would feel far more comforted, however, where American troops and heavy weapons were to find a permanent home on their front line of defence against Russia.
Since its annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Russia has steadily
expanded its military presence in the region. In response, the U.S. and
its NATO allies are working to build, train and equip Ukrainian forces. (Photo: John Bretschneider/Staff MilitaryTimes)
"We can expect more of these cases." "As long as the smugglers think they can make big money without getting caught, they will keep doing it." Constantin Malic, Moldovan police officer
"What has changed is that in ISIL we now have a terrorist group that
is mad enough to try it, and also has the money to appeal to a
potential seller. That could make
the market for this more viable." "That said, bomb-grade
material, unlike depleted uranium and so on, is not easy to get hold of.
So in most of these cases I suspect you would see suppliers offering
weapons grade stuff to hook a potential buyer, but without the ability
to actually supply it." Mark Galleoti, professor of global affairs, Centre for Global Affairs, New York University
Destroyed bombs and chemical vats in
the Muthanna chemical plant in 2002. Iraqi officials claim the building
still houses dangerous chemicals, but the UN and US dispute that.Photo: Heathcliff O'Malley/The Telegraph
Moldovan authorities have been cooperating with the FBI to intercept four attempts by gangs with Russian connections seeking to sell radioactive material to extremists in the Middle East, in the past five years. A smuggler in possession of a cache of deadly cesium said to be enough to contaminate a number of city blocks, sought out a buyer from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, in the latest effort to bypass efforts to keep such materials out of the hands of jihadis.
Criminal groups suspected of having ties with the Russian secret agency that is the successor to the KGB, are involved in a lively black market in nuclear materials in Moldova, according to investigators. The stated confidence of such attempts ongoing, of Moldovan police officer Malic, involved in investigating all four cases that were apprehended, expresses the reality that those behind the deals are allowed to go free and often with the materials in question.
Moldovan police and judicial authorities are well aware just how dangerous a scenario the black market in nuclear products represents. And with the breakdown in cooperation that has resulted from Russia's expeditions into restoring Soviet hegemony between it and the West, particularly the United States, detecting where, when and whether smugglers are discovering new ways to move the vast store of radioactive materials remaining in Russia remains a conundrum.
The current anti-smuggling strategy has been compromised with a lack of communication and with it cooperation between the radioactive materials' source and the intelligence agencies most concerned to keep it from the hands of terrorists. Wiretaps, videotaped arrests, photographs of bomb-grade material along with allied documents and interviews give ample evidence that such trade is on the move and presents a danger to the world.
While authorities isolate suspects in the stages of a deal, those responsible for directing the process are inexplicably given the opportunity to escape, and the nuclear contraband goes with them. Moldovan investigators aren't certain as an example, whether the prime suspects have fled with the nuclear materials in question. Nor do they have certain knowledge whether or not any deals of deadly nuclear material have actually been concluded.
"In the age of the Islamic State, it's especially terrifying to have real smugglers of nuclear bomb materials apparently making connections with real buyers." Matthew Bunn, Harvard professor, author of study on security of Russian nuclear arsenal
AP INVESTIGATION: Nuclear black market seeks IS extremists
"Unprofessional air intercepts have the potential to cause harm to all aircrews involved. More importantly, the careless actions of a single pilot have the potential to escalate tensions between countries." Pentagon statement
U.S. spyplane aggressively intercepted by Russian Su-27 over the Baltic Sea
Russian President Vladimir Putin deplores the instigation of unrest by NATO forces in eastern Europe. That NATO has encouraged Ukraine to be unreasonable about the presence of ethnic Russian Ukrainians insisting on moving some of Ukraine's geography and authority from Kyiv to Moscow is also intolerable. Moscow is definitely not on the warmongering path, but Kyiv most certainly is, and as for NATO; their unspeakable interference in the Russian orbit is unforgivable.
The sanctions under which Russia has been labouring are more than unjust; they are unreasonably absurd; no reason whatever for that kind of nonsense. So it's up to Moscow to find other means of enriching itself so it can continue to carry on with its boosting of the Russian military with all the latest technically advanced war machines. The completion of the $800-million sale of air defence missiles to Iran as good a start as any.
Cadets walk close to a Russian
surface-to-air missile system S-300 PMU during a military exhibition on
February 20, 2015 in St. Petersburg, Russia (AFP Photo/Olga Maltseva)
The sale "was done in the spirit of goodwill in order to encourage progress in the [nuclear] talks", stated Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in a bit of ironically black humour. So much for goodwill; anyone could see it was there, in the negotiating process because both sides, the world powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran were always smiling at one another. Iran excels at those smiles; perhaps on the part of the EU it was more of a grimace of tedium and surrender.
The S-300 surface-to-air system comes with the credentials of huge success. Any aircraft other than stealth (like the American Air Force's B-2 or F-22 aircraft) is pretty well guaranteed inoperability in airspace defended by them. The current Israeli Air Force aircraft, as example, will be mighty vulnerable; all the more so since Moscow is considering the sale of even more effective missile systems to their Iranian allies.
In a surprise counter-move the United States has given warning to Iran that the potential of an attack on its nuclear development facilities are off the table on a temporary basis: "We have the capability to shut down, set back and destroy the Iranian nuclear program and I believe the Iranians know that and understand that", said Defence Secretary Ashton Carter, in reference to the USAF's ground-penetrating bomb, the massive ordnance penetrator.
This is the powerful 13,600-kilogram MOP, capable of exploding 60 metres underground, designed to destroy deeply buried and heavily fortified targets such as the underground nuclear bunkers that Iran has deliberately designed to evade notice, and failing that, destruction. The problem here looming is that there aren't that many of those bombers with the capacity to carry the MOP, and whether they are capable of penetrating the new air defence systems is another matter.
A Russian Air Force interceptor, an SU-27 buzzed an USAF RC-135U aircraft collecting technical intelligence on Russian radar emitter systems flying out of Moscow's Kaliningrad military base in international waters north of Poland. A week earlier a 120-vehicle convoy with 1,400 U.S. troops from the 2nd Cavalry Regiment returned to base in Germany on completion of an 12,800-km trek through Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and the Czech Republic in a demonstration of Washington's support to eastern Europe NATO allies.
Moscow responded to that by mockery propaganda: "Tanks? No Thanks!", labelling it "an unnecessary and dangerously provocative military manoeuvre which (may) only increase international tension."True, all too true. Wouldn't it make eminently good sense for all sides to amp down the provocations? Trouble is, each is responding to the provocations of the other. And therein lies the danger, of a spark setting off a conflagration.
East Europe has seen that Russia is pressing against their borders with their support of the insurgents on the Donbas region of Ukraine; as good a symbol as any of just how vulnerable they themselves are to similar treatment. Vladimir Putin's recent announcement that he has no intention whatever of challenging any of Russia's former satellites for enhanced territory for the Russian Federation doesn't appear to have convinced those former satellites.
The Baltic republics in particular feel under pressure even as they are witness to Moscow busying itself rebuilding their military capacities, placing their new assets on display, and offering to sell advanced weaponry anywhere that is willing to pay hard cash.
"If you have the first indication of self-proclaimed groups beginning to ask for autonomy or independence within one of the three countries, then you have to be involved immediately." "The key is to maintain an element of ambiguity: to say to Putin, 'If you try it, then you might get a response which you never bargained for'." "If you play some games in Latvia, you might find 20,000 NATO troops arriving in the country." Jonathan Eyal, head, security studies, Royal United Services Institute
The retreat continues: Ukrainian servicemen approach Artemivsk after withdrawing from the key town of Debaltseve.Photograph: Gleb Garanich/ReutersEstonia, Latvia and Lithuania are more than slightly concerned that Vladimir Putin's ambitions may very well turn toward them when he has finished eviscerating Ukraine's geography to his satisfaction. They are under no illusions that Moscow has any moral scruples about abusing their sovereign borders. They have, after all, viewed at fairly close range in the Baltics what has been happening in Ukraine.
Of course the difference is that Ukraine is not a member of NATO nor the European Union. Although Ukraine's plight in reflection of the massive assault on internationally recognized norms of state conduct respecting national borders and the sovereignty of nations has been lost on no one. No one expected it, in fact, viewing Europe as more or less consolidated into one huge, comfortable continent once the fervour of imperial control had drifted into the past with the dissolution of the USSR.
Who might have imagined, in their naivety that the ambition had dwindled, not perished, and was resurgent in the talons of another Russian strongman, determined to return pride to Russia, restoring the honour of its pride of place as a world power. And the powerful have a propensity to inspire fear and foreboding in the lesser nations; always with good reason.
As members of NATO, however, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have a powerful ally that circumstances denied Ukraine. They, unlike Ukraine, rest in the protective shade of the North Atlantic treaty Article V stating that "an armed attack against any signatory" be considered "an attack against them all", ensuring that counter-measures be undertaken "including the use of armed force."
But Vladimir Putin is cagey and resourceful; just as he has repeatedly denied ordering troops and materiel into Ukraine to aid the pro-Russian rebels, using evasive tactics to label aid humanitarian in nature, and troops not representative of the military at all, but merely 'volunteers' on their time off committing to aiding the separatists' goal, he would likely make use of very similar tactics in the event his acquisitive instinct focused on the Baltic states.
Guerrilla warfare has seen a new lease on life; as old as conflict itself, it has served Russia well in the last year, enabling it to eviscerate eastern Ukraine as it did Georgia earlier, with more to come. While thousands of Russian troops are known to have crossed the border into Ukraine with their mechanized war machines, they were artfully managed and camouflaged. Credible witnesses aside, Moscow still insists on the wounded innocence of non-interference and misunderstanding.
The invasion of a sovereign country for the purpose of aiding a rebellion that just happened to enrich the Russian sphere of influence and geography was indeed a reality, but one shaded in grey, a behind-the-shadows success of intrigue and blatant lies. The same kind of creeping assault that succeeded in humiliating and crippling Ukraine would leave NATO with the conundrum of an undeclared conflict posing as an innocent byproduct of help extended to Russian speakers whose welfare concerns Russia.
Unless, as diagnoses and prescribes Jonathan Eyal and doubtless others of his experience and professional interpretation, the first sparks from the first embers are stamped upon, and the flames extinguished before they flare into a full-bore wildfire. Beware the propaganda of subversion and its accompanying protests leading to 'popular' revolt.
"NATO's biggest challenge in 2015 will be focusing on and advancing its core mission -- ensuring the security of the alliance's members and promoting stability in Europe." "This will be a challenge because the alliance's leaders have taken collective defence for granted for many years, because Russia has developed an array of unconventional tactics that will require new and unconventional responses, and because NATO will continue to be involved in training activities in Afghanistan." Michael Brown, dean, Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University
"[2015] will be about making it more concrete and visible for Russia. The main task will be to decide what this force will be, where it will be based, and how it will be commanded. It's also about money." "Russia has to see that NATO is resolved to defend its values. And the core value of NATO is solidarity: attack one member, and the whole alliance, including the U.S., will respond." Marcin Terlikowski, head, European Security and Defence Economics, Polish Institute of International Affairs, Warsaw
The interlude of peaceful co-existence between Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and its near neighbours -- once oppressed living under the weight of Soviet domination, when the near-abroad was captured in a firm grip of imperial ambition as practised by a Communist colossus -- has expired under the reminiscing determination of Vladimir Putin, the master of the deft move in realpolitik, whose actions leave the international community gasping in disbelief.
Russia’s strategic naval forces remain state of the art. Source: PhotoXPress
It is not possible not to believe at this time when the Kremlin under Putin masterminded a transformation from a broken, superannuated military to a military beefed up with young, reluctant recruits bullied into disciplinary conformance, behind which is an arsenal of the latest technological arms from ballistic missiles to state-of-the-art nuclear submarines, upgraded MiG fighter jets, and highly maneuverable ground armaments that Russia is preparing to mount a broad offensive.
Russia is certainly preparing itself for a renewed show-and-tell in the interests of demonstrating its military capabilities, resilience to Western 'interference' within its near geography, and resolution to maintain what it considers its entitlements, from the Baltic states to the frozen Arctic with its vast undersea treasure stores of natural resources, from petroleum fuels to mineral deposits ripe for extraction. It will back away from what it considers to be its birthright, to no outside influence.
And while it sets about establishing its dominance in its backyard communities of vulnerable nations hovering between fear and defiance, it is setting down parameters as though daring the nations whose dignity and sovereignty it tweaks playfully as a seeming precursor to invasion ostensibly meant to 'protect' the rights of Russian speakers domiciled there, to demonstrating to its most potent adversary, NATO, its serious intent.
For its part NATO has shifted its focus from South and Central Asia to Europe, where 2014 unveiled a surprise Russian annexation of Crimea following on its earlier success in depriving Georgia of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, to no consequences for its military incursion into Georgia. Denials that Russia has sent its military into east Ukraine are transparently absurd, as is its denial of its military fighting alongside Russian-speaking Ukrainian rebels.
In response, NATO has launched the Baltic Air Policing mission over Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Countries within NATO are set to stockpile fuel, ammunition and allied military supplies and equipment within the front line countries to be used by the rapid reaction NATO force, should it prove to be required. That "spearhead" of a multinational force representing the 28 NATO member countries is meant to reinforce alliance members' security.
According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the new force representing rebooted alliance capabilities represents "the biggest reinforcement of our collective defence since the end of the Cold War". None of this, the Russian bellicosity in challenging its neighbours' sovereign rights, and acting in concert with its belief it has the right to dominate the weaker among them, nor NATO's growing membership from within those Russian-near-abroad neighbours bodes well for the future.
The U.S.-approved Readiness Action Plan for the alliance capabilities upgrade for 2015 does represent a response to recognizing Russia's wider ambitions of domination in east Europe. And since NATO was formed for the express purpose of creating an alliance of like-valued democracies allying themselves against the very situation that is now gradually evolving in east Europe, it was inevitable that an geography-avaricious Russia would face push-back.
It is the question of just how far the volatile recklessness of Moscow will push the alliance through rapacious entitlement that will continue to have the international community on tenterhooks of concern. Meanwhile, NATO is looking for funding to match the perceived need of building up meaningful military capabilities to match those of the renascent Russia; the United States alone is more than a match, but this is an alliance of countries working toward a common agenda.
So, although many NATO countries hope that the U.S. will come forward with the funding required to pay for the new reactive force and all it entails, Germany too stands out as a major funding source even while it, like the U.S., has cut back on its own military expenditures. In the opinion of Bruno Lete, senior program officer for foreign and security policy at the German Marshall Fund based in Brussels, to achieve full NATO cohesion, as many of its members as possible must contribute to such payments to prevent a situation where "the plan will lose its legitimacy."
"If Russia comes, they will take us again. but I don't think they can be bothered because we have no resources that they could exploit." "There are lots of Russians in our crew [repairing railway tracks]. They end up thinking this way [Moscow triumphant, unstoppable, entitled] after watching Russian television every day." "It's sad there are people like that, but you cannot evade them here sometimes. But if the Russians come, I will fight. Young people don't look to Russia. We know life is better in western Europe." Paulius Liekys, Vilnius, Lithuania
"We have a saying in Lithuania: the small stone can overturn the carriage. What Putin is doing is a provocation which expects a reaction. As we have seen in Ukraine, peace is a very fragile thing. We understand that peace is not given to you. You have to fight for it." "[What Russia has done in Ukraine has] everyone quite worried now." Justinas Sartauskas, mayor of Siauliai
Hill of hope: In 1991, when Lithuania acquired
its long awaited independence, the hill became a dual symbol of
Lithuania's Catholic faith and her national identity
Mayor Sartauskas tells his visitor, a reporter from Canada, outside the northern city of Siauliai, is the crucially important Hill of Crosses where about 160,000 crosses are erected on the legendary hill and in fields close by as a reminder of the oppression that czarist Russia, followed by the Soviet Politburo created for the people of Lithuania.
The crosses reminders of the thousands of Lithuanians executed by the Soviets, of the men, women and children deported to gulags in Siberia and Central Asia in the period between the years 1940 and 1953. "Every night during the Soviet time they would bring out tractors to demolish the crosses but the next day more of them appeared", he recounted with pride.
In eastern Europe the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are decidedly nervous. The hero of Russian minorities living in the near abroad has been casting his covetous eye toward the plight of ethnic Russians oppressed by the leaders of those countries. Much as Moscow 'defended' the ethnic Russians living in Ukraine by inciting them to violent rebellion, training and arming them, annexing the sea port of Crimea, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia now fear Vladimir Putin's restless eye.
Not that Poland and Romania too haven't cause for nerves. In a conversation that Mr. Putin shared over the telephone with Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko he casually let drop the little conversational bomblet that Russian forces could easily take all five capitals within a matter of hours, should he be inclined to decide in that direction. The Suddeutsche Zeitung, out of Munich, released that gratuitous warning from the mouth of the Bear.
Russian warplanes and intelligence aircraft continue to violate Swedish and Finnish air space with impunity, and buzz NATO's Baltic borders at will. Playful teasing, like a Grizzly playing with a terrified deer, traumatized, incapable of running off to rescue itself from a calamitous end. NATO fighter pilots sleep close by their fighter jets at airfields in Lithuania and Estonia, as a result, prepared to react at a moment's notice.
The independent Canadian correspondent Matthew Fisher reported witnessing a pair of drunken men on a train travelling from Vilnius to Klaipedia in Lithuania, speaking Russian for an hour clamorously denouncing NATO, the United States and Canada, and throwing in for good measure insults armed at Lithuanian women. Their disruptive insults led to their being marched away by Lithuanian police when the train stopped.
Two
Russian speaking men were handcuffed and taken off a train after
drunkenly shouting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s praises for an
hour. The men also said that Lithuania, which was part of the Soviet
Union for half a century until 1991, still belonged to Russia. Matthew
Fisher/Postmedia News
But not before they gloated "Putin will do whatever he likes and there is nothing you or NATO can do about it. This is ours." An incident. A provocation. A response. Which could conceivably be transcribed as an oppressive act against two Russian-speaking men in Lithuania. Proving conclusively to Vladimir Putin that Lithuania provokes and represses ethnic Russians, and that Moscow is called upon to liberate them.
"There is absolutely sufficient [Russian] force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transdniester if the decision was made to do that, and that is very worrisome." "The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready." U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, NATO supreme allied commander, Europe
Breedlove: 'Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner'
Transdniester, a Russian-speaking enclave in Moldova has, like Crimea in Ukraine, declared itself independent from the rest of Moldova. Roughly one-third of Transdniester's half-million people are of ethnic Russian origin. And many would be overjoyed to return to Moscow's rule. Tiraspol, the capital, holds statues of Lenin and associated symbols of the glory days of the Soviet Union.
Those issues of alignment and the burning desire to sweep back into the Russian Federation's orbit any parts of the former Soviet Union housing loyal and yearning Russians is all that Vladimir Putin requires to state with the same bland conviction of might makes a rightful return to history, and the protection of Russians motivates the Kremlin to send in its troops and recover what was once theirs.
The general's thoughtful musings aren't meant to spread alarm, but to focus on reality. One that Ukraine's new government also considers, fearing that Russia plans additional military annexations in the country's east. Russian forces attacked Ukrainian military bases in Crimea in concert with their end-plan to recover the Crimean peninsula in its entirety, and force out Ukrainian troops.
Andriy Parubiy who heads Ukraine's national security and defence council issued a warning of the threat courtesy of the Kremlin at a mass rally in Kiev. "The aim of Putin is not Crimea but all of Ukraine. His troops massed at the border are ready to attack at any moment." Paranoid hysteria? Possibly more a reflection of knowing your enemy and how his mind works.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister, warned as well of the huge repercussions in store should Russia attempt to further reposition national borders in Europe in favour of expanding its territory. Even while Russia's defence ministry celebrated its flag flying over 189 Ukrainian military installations on the Crimean peninsula. This is a deed that cannot now be undone.
Leading to the fears that more such deeds may be in the offing. At the Crimean port of Feodosia, marines negotiating the handover of the port to Russian forces held that "Our only issue is that we want to leave this place with honour, weapons and vehicles", according to one soldier. Honour somehow eluded those leaving, shame rather, accompanied them, that they were unable to defend their own.
Moscow's ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, gave assurances that Russia had entertained no intention whatever to move its troops outside Crimea, now Russian territory. NATO remains unconvinced. Since fighting a brief separatist conflict in an effort to break away from Moldova in 1991, Transdniester has hosted a "peace-keeping" garrison of 1,000 Russian troops.
As for Russian plans for other parts of Ukraine, "it's possible that they are preparing to move in", commented the U.S. deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken, speaking of the Russian penchant to position a menacing troop buildup toward contested territory.
"I wouldn't be afraid of Russian aggression in a short term. I'm 100 percent sure (that NATO would help its eastern allies). I think that NATO gets stronger as a result of the conflict in Ukraine." Michal Qur'an, Institute of International Relations, Prague
"We are afraid the conflict in Ukraine could reach us in Moldova. Russian troops could take over Moldova in a day." Victor Cotruta, Chisinau
"There is first of all fear ... that there could be a possible contagion. Romania is extremely preoccupied." Romanian Foreign Minister Titus Corlatean
"Anyone who believes that peace and stabilization can be bought through concessions is mistaken. Europe has made such mistakes, and they always led to a catastrophe." Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk
"I'm a bit skeptical [believing the West would come to her nation's rescue]. I'd like to believe so but I can't say I trust them 100 percent." Tiina Seeman, Tallinn, Estonia
A Crimean man holds a Soviet Union flag in Lenin Square in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 16.
In the face of Russian hegemonic transgressions in Ukraine, countries across Eastern Europe have become exceedingly nervous. Ordinary people and their leaders harbour a sense of fear. The constraints that always seemed to be able to bar Moscow from its traditional overbearing intimidation appear now to have been watered down to the extent that the Kremlin no longer fears intervention by the United States.
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Western Europe had obviously felt the Russian bear was no longer interested in snarling its superiority and exceptionalism leading to its entitlement to play the heavy in Europe. Trust was invested in a new Russia and a new social-political environment. The new Russia was one Europe trustfully was reliant upon for its energy needs. Despite a few troubling scenarios during winters past.
People stand in
line to vote at a bank office in Simferopol, Ukraine. Results are
expected on Monday. The United States has already said it expects the
Black Sea peninsula's majority ethnic Russian population to vote in
favor of joining Russia. When Russia marched on Georgia to assert independence for South Ossetia and Bessarabia and President Obama meekly assented to Vladimir Putin's outraged demands that the U.S. pull back from its plans to install missile defence bases in Poland the Czech Republic, Moscow had all the assurances it required that it could pursue its plans to reconsolidate in essence what had been lost with the USSR fell under the weight of its own incompetence.
What followed was the acquiescence of the United States to measuring up to Russia's new diplomatic missions in forestalling a Western assault on Syria, and the UN's and NATO's suspicions of Iran's nuclear intentions. By all those measures, it would be clear sailing for a newly emerging, uber-confident Vladimir Putin, who had just finished entertaining the world with an international sports extravaganza.
Cossacks guard the regional parliament building during the Crimean referendum in Simferopol.
Those living in Eastern Europe know the old Russia and recognize it in the new Russia. And they recall also that sixty years earlier Poland had guarantees from France and Britain for aid from Nazi aggression. Now, believing that NATO would march purposefully to the assistance of eastern member nations should Russia foist itself once again upon them, requires a belief in an occult fantasy of hopefulness.
That is the palpable fear of 'contagion', that Russia, feeling good about its swaggering 'influence' in Crimea and east Ukraine, might cast its covetous eyes further abroad to recapture the glory that it once basked in. Feelings of dread live acutely in the Baltic nations, now NATO members and members of the European Union.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all have sizeable Russian populations. Should Russia stage an provocative 'incident', the fear is that it could lead to Moscow's declaration affirming it is required of the Kremlin to honour its obligation to "protect" that expatriate Russian population, citizens of other countries of East Europe, be damned.
This represents a general opinion site for its author. It also offers a space for the author to record her experiences and perceptions,both personal and public. This is rendered obvious by the content contained in the blog, but the space is here inviting me to write. And so I do.
A Crimean man holds a Soviet Union flag in Lenin Square in Simferopol, Ukraine, on March 16.
People stand in
line to vote at a bank office in Simferopol, Ukraine. Results are
expected on Monday. The United States has already said it expects the
Black Sea peninsula's majority ethnic Russian population to vote in
favor of joining Russia. When Russia marched on Georgia to assert independence for South Ossetia and Bessarabia and President Obama meekly assented to Vladimir Putin's outraged demands that the U.S. pull back from its plans to install missile defence bases in Poland the Czech Republic, Moscow had all the assurances it required that it could pursue its plans to reconsolidate in essence what had been lost with the USSR fell under the weight of its own incompetence.
Cossacks guard the regional parliament building during the Crimean referendum in Simferopol. 