Monday, September 10, 2018

Idlib's Terrorist Population

Syrian protesters wave their national flag as they demonstrate against the regime and its ally Russia, in the rebel-held city of Idlib on September 7, 2018
Protesters in Idlib demonstrated against the Syrian government and Russia on Friday  AFP
"[A ceasefire] would be good [but there is no guarantee that terrorist groups in Idlib] will stop shooting or stop using drones with bombs."
"The fact is that there are no representatives of the armed opposition here around this table."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

"These commanders, these units [Syrian regime commanders around Idlib], will be held accountable by the international community."
"There are more babies in Idlib than there are terrorists and I think that should give those engaging in military action pause for thought."
Karen Pierce, British ambassador to the United Nations

"We are living in black days."
"It [Idlib City] is full of fear and expectations and rumours. We hear about massacres in other places and worry that it might happen in Idlib."
Woman resident of Idlib
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, right to left, pose for a photo before a meeting in Ankara
© Sputnik / Michael Klimentyev

Surely Vladimir Putin was being deliberately obtuse in looking around the table where he was seated with Hassan Rouhani and Recep Tayyip Erdogan; very facetious, knowing that seated with him was the sponsor of  the Syrian armed opposition. Erdogan has made his bed, though a member of NATO he has chosen to stand beside Russia and Iran and spurn the United States. He thought he could have his way, convince Washington to stop training and arming Kurds; failing that he now is unable to convince Moscow to spare the Syrian rebels since to the regime, (Tehran and Moscow falling into the regime's plan of execution) Sunni Syrians are all terrorists.

A ceasefire in Idlib, sparing Sunni Syrians is officially off the table, and Erdogan can grimace but not effect the outcome that he wanted; protection of Sunnis and conflict with the Kurds, the best fighting allies of the Americans whose target remains the real terrorists (aside from Russian warplanes and Iranian Shiite militias and Hezbollah) what remains of the Islamic State. In essence, Erdogan was out-chessed and has effectively agreed to the assault by the Assad regime and its allies, on Idlib.

It is why actually, Russia has warned that the rebels in Idlib have amassed chemical weapons, planning to use them, then accusing the regime of a chemical attack to bring in Western powers, most notably, U.S. forces to exact punishment on the regime for its use of universally condemned weapons against innocent civilians. The Syrian regime "has a right and must eventually take under control all of its national territory", is Putin's position in response to Erdogan's statement that an attack would "result in disaster, massacre and humanitarian drama".

And it most assuredly will, since U.S. intelligence has sussed out that Syrian regime forces are prepared once again to use chemical weapons in their Idlib attack.

Although Erdogan has for a change recognized a situation that he himself is part of and would very much like to avoid the consequences since they involve his own Islamic sect, he is now in a powerless, though chosen position. While not acquiescing, he is incapable of stopping the inevitable. Adding to his slaughter of his own Kurdish civilian populations, he will now be guilty of being in essence an accessory to the slaughter of Sunni Syrians, many of whom now have nowhere else to go  almost a million having gathered in Idlib province, escaping death elsewhere.

The repercussions will be far-reaching, one of which will be that another surge of desperate Syrian refugees will cross the border into Turkey, adding to the millions already suffering as refugees there. And Turkey will once again negotiate with Europe for financial assurances in aid of maintaining a blockade of refugees attempting to leave Turkish shores for Greece and Italy.

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