Protesters in Idlib demonstrated against the Syrian government and Russia on Friday AFP
"[A ceasefire] would be good [but there is no guarantee that terrorist groups in Idlib] will stop shooting or stop using drones with bombs." "The fact is that there are no representatives of the armed opposition here around this table." Russian President Vladimir Putin
"These commanders, these units [Syrian regime commanders around Idlib], will be held accountable by the international community." "There are more babies in Idlib than there are terrorists and I think that should give those engaging in military action pause for thought." Karen Pierce, British ambassador to the United Nations "We are living in black days." "It [Idlib City] is full of fear and expectations and rumours. We hear about massacres in other places and worry that it might happen in Idlib." Woman resident of Idlib
Surely Vladimir Putin was being deliberately obtuse in looking around the table where he was seated with Hassan Rouhani and Recep Tayyip Erdogan; very facetious, knowing that seated with him was the sponsor of the Syrian armed opposition. Erdogan has made his bed, though a member of NATO he has chosen to stand beside Russia and Iran and spurn the United States. He thought he could have his way, convince Washington to stop training and arming Kurds; failing that he now is unable to convince Moscow to spare the Syrian rebels since to the regime, (Tehran and Moscow falling into the regime's plan of execution) Sunni Syrians are all terrorists.
A ceasefire in Idlib, sparing Sunni Syrians is officially off the table, and Erdogan can grimace but not effect the outcome that he wanted; protection of Sunnis and conflict with the Kurds, the best fighting allies of the Americans whose target remains the real terrorists (aside from Russian warplanes and Iranian Shiite militias and Hezbollah) what remains of the Islamic State. In essence, Erdogan was out-chessed and has effectively agreed to the assault by the Assad regime and its allies, on Idlib.
It is why actually, Russia has warned that the rebels in Idlib have amassed chemical weapons, planning to use them, then accusing the regime of a chemical attack to bring in Western powers, most notably, U.S. forces to exact punishment on the regime for its use of universally condemned weapons against innocent civilians. The Syrian regime "has a right and must eventually take under control all of its national territory", is Putin's position in response to Erdogan's statement that an attack would "result in disaster, massacre and humanitarian drama".
And it most assuredly will, since U.S. intelligence has sussed out that Syrian regime forces are prepared once again to use chemical weapons in their Idlib attack.
Although Erdogan has for a change recognized a situation that he himself is part of and would very much like to avoid the consequences since they involve his own Islamic sect, he is now in a powerless, though chosen position. While not acquiescing, he is incapable of stopping the inevitable. Adding to his slaughter of his own Kurdish civilian populations, he will now be guilty of being in essence an accessory to the slaughter of Sunni Syrians, many of whom now have nowhere else to go almost a million having gathered in Idlib province, escaping death elsewhere.
The repercussions will be far-reaching, one of which will be that another surge of desperate Syrian refugees will cross the border into Turkey, adding to the millions already suffering as refugees there. And Turkey will once again negotiate with Europe for financial assurances in aid of maintaining a blockade of refugees attempting to leave Turkish shores for Greece and Italy.
"We have absolutely advised them to stay out of At Tanf. We are postured to respond."
"The United States does not seek to fight the government of Syria or
any groups that may be providing it support." " However, if attacked, the
United States will not hesitate to use necessary and proportionate force
to defend US, coalition or partner forces." U.S. defense official
"The government plan was to give the maximum possible chance for a reconciliation, but unfortunately there was no progress in this regard." "The radicals are in control in Idlib." "This looks like preliminary bombardment before a major land operation." Syrian government official
"[Safe passage would be
essential in the event of an assault.] A staggering 700,000 people could
be displaced overnight. Already people are on the move again
out of fear of what might come next, and are struggling to find
shelter." "As NRC witnessed in eastern Ghouta or Aleppo, routes to safety came
too little too late for thousands of civilians trapped in the violence.
The only way to truly ensure the safety of civilians in Idlib is to
prevent an outbreak in violence altogether." "We must see the world’s top
powers commit to peaceful negotiations and agreements which protect
civilians and grant them safety." The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)
A screenshot
of the White Helmets' Twitter account shows what the organization
describes as the aftermath of an airstrike on a town in the countryside
of Idlib, September 4, 2018.Screenshot / @SyriaCivilDef / Twitter
One of the world's "top powers" is bombing the hell out of Idlib city, evidently unconcerned that the top "top power" has issued a warning that Russian jets doing just that are in the process of helping Syria to make yet another "grave mistake". Syria doesn't seem to care. Moscow seems less than concerned that it is once again, placing the lives of Syrian civilians into a destructive dust-heap of cadavers. Damascus may have pointed out to Moscow that Washington is protecting some areas the Syrian regime means to recapture, shielding U.S. allies.
To which Moscow has responded by warning Washington it should haul its troops out of harm's way. Washington's response was that there is no intention of withdrawing its troops which will, if they come under fire, return fire, both for self-protection and that of its allies, aiding in removing what remains (in the thousands) of ISIL fighters. No fewer than 24 locations in the northwester province of Idlib were struck, interpreted as the opening salvo of an offensive.
Even Israeli jets visited Syria, striking Iranian military positions in Hama and Tartus provinces two days ago. On many fronts, this long-lasting, wide-ranging war in what was once a well developed country has become complex with a myriad of opposing actors, from Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, United States, Israel, and Turkey, involving Sunnis, Shias, Kurds and foreign Islamists all clamouring for their aspirations and rights to be recognized in a country whose infrastructure has been bombed, its heritage smashed, its citizenry displaced, dismembered, murdered en masse.
The Syrian government forces that have massed around Idlib are prepared for an assault to rout the last opposition stronghold remaining in the country. President Trump's warning against Russian and Iranians "recklessly" attacking Idlib hasn't made much of a dent in their plans though he elaborated that "a grave humanitarian mistake" was on the horizon where hundreds of thousands of lives could be lost. But as long as chemical weapons are refrained from use, it's unlikely there will be any U.S. intervention; Russia's presence mitigates against anything so foolish.
Millions of Syrians live in Idlib province, half of them displaced from other areas in Syria, where they moved in panic to avoid being bombed elsewhere, now finding themselves targets once again. When, not if the offensive strikes it is expected to be one of the deadliest outcomes in the seven-year war. According to UN officials up to 800,00 people may be displaced, those in urgent need of aid dramatically increasing.
Any citizens, including Sunni Syrian rebels who baulk at surrendering to government troops with the full knowledge of what they will mean to their chances of emerging alive, have nowhere left to migrate to, for survival much less safety.
Members of Russian and Syrian forces stand guard
near posters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian
counterpart Vladimir Putin at the Abu Duhur crossing on the eastern edge
of Idlib province on August 20, 2018.George Ourfalian/AFP/Getty Images
This represents a general opinion site for its author. It also offers a space for the author to record her experiences and perceptions,both personal and public. This is rendered obvious by the content contained in the blog, but the space is here inviting me to write. And so I do.
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